The Week Ahead: 5th-9th Feb
This week is looking quieter for US releases yet we still have numerous influential releases throughout the week, coming from New Zealand and the UK mostly.
Monday morning we have the UK's Service PMI, which is forecast to be almost exactly the same as last month at 54.1. The effect I see as being minimal on the Gold market because this data release should technically only influence the cable market within forex and thus the knock-on consequence on Gold will be minimal. But later we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which is forecast to be 0.6 above last month at 56.5. This release could produce quite a dip for the Gold market yet the negative consequence could be limited by ECB President Draghi speaking which will create volatility and could hopefully stop any negativity from the US release earlier.
Australian release numerous data during the early early morning, but I doubt their influence will be substantial. They are releasing their Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Cash Rate and their RBA Rate Statement. So it will be worth looking at but I doubt there will be much effect on the Gold market. Then later we have the Canadian Trade Balance, which will be worth following because it really could effect the US Dollar and thus Gold, so it just depends how far the actual result differs from the forecast.
Lastly, late in the evening we have NZD releasing their Employment Change and their Unemployment Rate, I feel this shall be similar to the early release from Australia and the consequence on Gold will be limited. Tuesday is looking like a fairly quiet day and thus I feel there will be volatility during the period of these results but I doubt we will see any strong bear or bull movements.
Wednesday, again we all of our important releases from the Australian Region. But nothing till late evening so Wednesday could be a very interesting day, direction decided by just traders confidence and not releases until late evening. New Zealand have their Official Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and their Rate statement. But unlike yesterday I reckon this could be more influential, the statements always create volatility, with traders looking to catch onto hints into future changes in interest levels etc., thus we could see some quite strong movement within the forex and maybe this will lead to some substantial shifting in Gold?
Thursday is focused mainly around releases coming out of the UK, we have four important data releases from the country: BOE Inflation Report, MPC Official Bank Vote, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. The one which is surprisingly dominate is the Bank vote, forecast is 9 all in favour but any change when released causes quite a stir within markets as it hints at maybe the potential for a future change in the actual Bank Rate. This event is looking safe, the Bank Rate is looking to be holding at 0.5%, so it will be about watching the reporting section, what is stated and hinted at will really direction Thursday Forex Market. There could be a lot of money to be made in the Cable Thursday if you play your cards right! Then later Thursday we have the weekly US Unemployment Claims, showing a forecast of a 6k rise from last week. I do believe Thursday could be a strong day for Gold, the UK releases are strong and show confidence in the pound, so this should help dip the dollar and thus push up the value of the mighty precious metal.
Then to finish the week of Friday is a bit quieter, we are continued to be bombarded with data from the UK but only 1 release looks to be influential for the markets. We have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m, showing a 0.1% decline from last month yet its still forecast to be positive and therefore I doubt there will be much effect on the daily direction of the Forex Markets. Then later we have the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. But there is a big dip in the Employment Change and this could do some damage to the Canadian exchange value and maybe Thursday potential positive direction for Gold could be eroded, yet as always it depends on the actual results of course.
The week is interesting, not as many big releases as last week but I do believe there could be some substantial shifts, good luck out there!
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2018
Monday morning we have the UK's Service PMI, which is forecast to be almost exactly the same as last month at 54.1. The effect I see as being minimal on the Gold market because this data release should technically only influence the cable market within forex and thus the knock-on consequence on Gold will be minimal. But later we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which is forecast to be 0.6 above last month at 56.5. This release could produce quite a dip for the Gold market yet the negative consequence could be limited by ECB President Draghi speaking which will create volatility and could hopefully stop any negativity from the US release earlier.
Australian release numerous data during the early early morning, but I doubt their influence will be substantial. They are releasing their Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Cash Rate and their RBA Rate Statement. So it will be worth looking at but I doubt there will be much effect on the Gold market. Then later we have the Canadian Trade Balance, which will be worth following because it really could effect the US Dollar and thus Gold, so it just depends how far the actual result differs from the forecast.
Lastly, late in the evening we have NZD releasing their Employment Change and their Unemployment Rate, I feel this shall be similar to the early release from Australia and the consequence on Gold will be limited. Tuesday is looking like a fairly quiet day and thus I feel there will be volatility during the period of these results but I doubt we will see any strong bear or bull movements.
Wednesday, again we all of our important releases from the Australian Region. But nothing till late evening so Wednesday could be a very interesting day, direction decided by just traders confidence and not releases until late evening. New Zealand have their Official Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and their Rate statement. But unlike yesterday I reckon this could be more influential, the statements always create volatility, with traders looking to catch onto hints into future changes in interest levels etc., thus we could see some quite strong movement within the forex and maybe this will lead to some substantial shifting in Gold?
Thursday is focused mainly around releases coming out of the UK, we have four important data releases from the country: BOE Inflation Report, MPC Official Bank Vote, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate. The one which is surprisingly dominate is the Bank vote, forecast is 9 all in favour but any change when released causes quite a stir within markets as it hints at maybe the potential for a future change in the actual Bank Rate. This event is looking safe, the Bank Rate is looking to be holding at 0.5%, so it will be about watching the reporting section, what is stated and hinted at will really direction Thursday Forex Market. There could be a lot of money to be made in the Cable Thursday if you play your cards right! Then later Thursday we have the weekly US Unemployment Claims, showing a forecast of a 6k rise from last week. I do believe Thursday could be a strong day for Gold, the UK releases are strong and show confidence in the pound, so this should help dip the dollar and thus push up the value of the mighty precious metal.
Then to finish the week of Friday is a bit quieter, we are continued to be bombarded with data from the UK but only 1 release looks to be influential for the markets. We have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m, showing a 0.1% decline from last month yet its still forecast to be positive and therefore I doubt there will be much effect on the daily direction of the Forex Markets. Then later we have the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. But there is a big dip in the Employment Change and this could do some damage to the Canadian exchange value and maybe Thursday potential positive direction for Gold could be eroded, yet as always it depends on the actual results of course.
The week is interesting, not as many big releases as last week but I do believe there could be some substantial shifts, good luck out there!
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2018
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