The Week Ahead: 19th- 23rd of Feb.
The retreating Dollar has been the main concern for the last few weeks now, the fall has been impressive and when I think its going to stop it only keeping falling. Now it is sitting at 106 against JPY but I never thought it would get below 107! So the fall may be continuing into this coming week, lets see how the coming releases could influence the Gold market this week.
Mondays main focus will be on Mr Carney's speech during the evening period, creating a volatile trading period with the potential of hints through helping explain the future direction of the BOE's Monetary Policy. This should cause traders to speculate constantly throughout his speech which is why we should see a rise in volatility.
In the early hours of Tuesday we have the Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Meeting. Similar to Monday where we shall see a very volatile period as traders try to understand what potential underlying policy changes could be hinted towards. However the effects, I believe will be limited, looking like a similar day to Monday, volatile but I don't see much directional change in Gold.
Wednesday is indeed busier, we have three important events with two from the UK and one from the US. We have the UK's Average Earning Index 3 monthly result, forecast to be bang on the same as the last period, at 2.5%. Then later there is the UK's Inflation Report Hearing which will be interesting, discussing the 'Inflation and Economic Outlook'. This will be a very volatile period for sure, I don't know how much these two will directly effect Gold, as the Cable market will be effected but the cable just isn't as influential on the Gold market as the USD/JPY so I doubt we shall see too much movement.
Then later, in the evening, the US release their FOMC Minute Report, explaining the decisions as to why Interest Rates are where they are. This shall be very interesting, movement, 100%. But how far, I think we might see quite a negative direction for the US Dollar.
Thursday we have the UK's Second Estimate GDP q/q results, like Wednesday forecast is bang on previous at 0.5%, so I doubt we will see much effect on the Gold market as a result of this. Later there is the Canadian Core Retail Sales, but we have a similar situation to the UK here, the consequences of the result will only be felt in the Gold market if we see large enough deviations. Around a similar time, we have the US's weekly Unemployment Results, looking to be 1k above last week, unless a big fluctuation from the forecast I doubt we shall see much movement. Lastly for Thursday we have the Federal Reserve Member Bostic speaking, implications; volatility however long-term effects on the Yellow Metal for the day I don't see much of.
Friday once again, and to finish the week, there is actually nothing too spectacular. The biggest release of the day is coming from Canada however we do have numerous Fed Members speaking in the afternoon and evening period. Firstly, the Canadian release, we have their CPI m/m result, with the last month being negative any strong results could cause quite a stir up and potentially end the week with Gold on a high? The three members speaking is of cause going to create to volatility for the evening period, but what is being discussed exactly I am not certain of.
This week is quieter with less big releases coming out, so I don't reckon the Gold market will be strongly effected however the continued lack of faith and confidence in the Dollar is something to place close attention to. Anything similar to last week and goodness it looks like we will see a further Bull Trend, up to $1400 or is that too optimistic for the moment?
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2018.
Mondays main focus will be on Mr Carney's speech during the evening period, creating a volatile trading period with the potential of hints through helping explain the future direction of the BOE's Monetary Policy. This should cause traders to speculate constantly throughout his speech which is why we should see a rise in volatility.
In the early hours of Tuesday we have the Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Meeting. Similar to Monday where we shall see a very volatile period as traders try to understand what potential underlying policy changes could be hinted towards. However the effects, I believe will be limited, looking like a similar day to Monday, volatile but I don't see much directional change in Gold.
Wednesday is indeed busier, we have three important events with two from the UK and one from the US. We have the UK's Average Earning Index 3 monthly result, forecast to be bang on the same as the last period, at 2.5%. Then later there is the UK's Inflation Report Hearing which will be interesting, discussing the 'Inflation and Economic Outlook'. This will be a very volatile period for sure, I don't know how much these two will directly effect Gold, as the Cable market will be effected but the cable just isn't as influential on the Gold market as the USD/JPY so I doubt we shall see too much movement.
Then later, in the evening, the US release their FOMC Minute Report, explaining the decisions as to why Interest Rates are where they are. This shall be very interesting, movement, 100%. But how far, I think we might see quite a negative direction for the US Dollar.
Thursday we have the UK's Second Estimate GDP q/q results, like Wednesday forecast is bang on previous at 0.5%, so I doubt we will see much effect on the Gold market as a result of this. Later there is the Canadian Core Retail Sales, but we have a similar situation to the UK here, the consequences of the result will only be felt in the Gold market if we see large enough deviations. Around a similar time, we have the US's weekly Unemployment Results, looking to be 1k above last week, unless a big fluctuation from the forecast I doubt we shall see much movement. Lastly for Thursday we have the Federal Reserve Member Bostic speaking, implications; volatility however long-term effects on the Yellow Metal for the day I don't see much of.
Friday once again, and to finish the week, there is actually nothing too spectacular. The biggest release of the day is coming from Canada however we do have numerous Fed Members speaking in the afternoon and evening period. Firstly, the Canadian release, we have their CPI m/m result, with the last month being negative any strong results could cause quite a stir up and potentially end the week with Gold on a high? The three members speaking is of cause going to create to volatility for the evening period, but what is being discussed exactly I am not certain of.
This week is quieter with less big releases coming out, so I don't reckon the Gold market will be strongly effected however the continued lack of faith and confidence in the Dollar is something to place close attention to. Anything similar to last week and goodness it looks like we will see a further Bull Trend, up to $1400 or is that too optimistic for the moment?
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2018.
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