The Week Ahead: 26th Feb - 2nd March.
This week is looking much busier than the previous few, with numerous big releases 100% having the opportunity to direct the gold market strongly in either a bull or bear trend this week.
Monday we have the ECB President Mr Draghi talking about 'the monetary policy and inflation outlook'(Forex Factory, 2018). This will be a volatile period and the outlook could really direct the EUR/USD exchange rate and thus might result in some strong movement for the precious metal during Monday which could lead to hints at whether we will see a bull or bear trend during the rest of the week. Later on Monday we have the US's New Home Sales, which will be worth watching but shouldn't result in too much movement.
Tuesday, we have three big releases from the US and a couple more smaller releases worth watching. They have their Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecasting a small decline from last month but still showing growth. Then we have the new Fed Chair Mr Powell speaking, discussing the future Monetary Policy direction. This will be very interesting and of course much volatility will be seen for sure. Later on we have the US Consumer Confidence, forecast is a little above last month, strongly positive on the Index though. Tuesday is looking to be another very dangerous day, with big movement definitely going to be seen. Also of interest is the US Durable Goods Orders, showing a strong negative forecast, so could be a dark horse in regards to influencing Tuesdays markets.
Wednesday is a quieter day, with only one big release. We have the US Prelim GDP q/q result, forecast is strongly positive at 2.5% which will be interesting, if this comes in we might see a big dip in Gold, anything between $5-$10 I do see being very possible and maybe even a further dip if we see a further positive result. Worth watching will be the US Pending Home Sales, forecast is positive but could be an influence if we have a variation of over 0.4-0.5% I reckon.
Thursday is looking similar to Wednesday with less big releases. We have the US's Fed Chair Powell speaking and then at the same time the US release their ISM Manufacturing PMI, but the forecast is very similar to last month and I doubt we shall see much consequence of this. However Mr Powell speaking will be interesting, depending on what is mentioned, we could see some big directional change during the later trading period of Thursday. Also worth watching will be the UK's Manufacturing PMI, which is similar to the US PMI, showing a small change from previous in the forecast and thus I doubt there will be much long-term consequence of this result. Then we have the US's Unemployment Claims, like the UK's PMI, its worth watching but little movement is to be expected.
Then Friday we only have one potential influence on the day. That is Mrs May speaking, I personally cannot stand her, I feel everything she says is a load of bullshit and each day she is allowed to extend her stay in office it is so damaging for the UK economy. But nothing can be done right now so we must make the best of the current situation. When the Prime Minister speaks it will create volatility as she continues to chat utter bollock about the positive effects the Tories have on the UK Economy.
Also on Friday we have the UK's Construction PMI but it won't do much for market direction. Later there is the Canadian GDP m/m, again, worth watching but I doubt this will result in any consequence. Then the US release their UoM Consumer Sentiment and UoM Inflation Expectation which shouldn't do much to the Gold market.
This week is interesting, I feel we will see a rebound in the US Dollar as the week progresses but I don't know how long the rally will hold. This is because, the confidence in the US dollar is low and we still haven't seen much progression upwards of 107. Therefore I feel Gold will be bouncing around and might see a continued rally upwards towards $1360 again.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
IG.com, 2018
Monday we have the ECB President Mr Draghi talking about 'the monetary policy and inflation outlook'(Forex Factory, 2018). This will be a volatile period and the outlook could really direct the EUR/USD exchange rate and thus might result in some strong movement for the precious metal during Monday which could lead to hints at whether we will see a bull or bear trend during the rest of the week. Later on Monday we have the US's New Home Sales, which will be worth watching but shouldn't result in too much movement.
Tuesday, we have three big releases from the US and a couple more smaller releases worth watching. They have their Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecasting a small decline from last month but still showing growth. Then we have the new Fed Chair Mr Powell speaking, discussing the future Monetary Policy direction. This will be very interesting and of course much volatility will be seen for sure. Later on we have the US Consumer Confidence, forecast is a little above last month, strongly positive on the Index though. Tuesday is looking to be another very dangerous day, with big movement definitely going to be seen. Also of interest is the US Durable Goods Orders, showing a strong negative forecast, so could be a dark horse in regards to influencing Tuesdays markets.
Wednesday is a quieter day, with only one big release. We have the US Prelim GDP q/q result, forecast is strongly positive at 2.5% which will be interesting, if this comes in we might see a big dip in Gold, anything between $5-$10 I do see being very possible and maybe even a further dip if we see a further positive result. Worth watching will be the US Pending Home Sales, forecast is positive but could be an influence if we have a variation of over 0.4-0.5% I reckon.
Thursday is looking similar to Wednesday with less big releases. We have the US's Fed Chair Powell speaking and then at the same time the US release their ISM Manufacturing PMI, but the forecast is very similar to last month and I doubt we shall see much consequence of this. However Mr Powell speaking will be interesting, depending on what is mentioned, we could see some big directional change during the later trading period of Thursday. Also worth watching will be the UK's Manufacturing PMI, which is similar to the US PMI, showing a small change from previous in the forecast and thus I doubt there will be much long-term consequence of this result. Then we have the US's Unemployment Claims, like the UK's PMI, its worth watching but little movement is to be expected.
Then Friday we only have one potential influence on the day. That is Mrs May speaking, I personally cannot stand her, I feel everything she says is a load of bullshit and each day she is allowed to extend her stay in office it is so damaging for the UK economy. But nothing can be done right now so we must make the best of the current situation. When the Prime Minister speaks it will create volatility as she continues to chat utter bollock about the positive effects the Tories have on the UK Economy.
Also on Friday we have the UK's Construction PMI but it won't do much for market direction. Later there is the Canadian GDP m/m, again, worth watching but I doubt this will result in any consequence. Then the US release their UoM Consumer Sentiment and UoM Inflation Expectation which shouldn't do much to the Gold market.
This week is interesting, I feel we will see a rebound in the US Dollar as the week progresses but I don't know how long the rally will hold. This is because, the confidence in the US dollar is low and we still haven't seen much progression upwards of 107. Therefore I feel Gold will be bouncing around and might see a continued rally upwards towards $1360 again.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
IG.com, 2018
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