The Week Ahead: 12th-16th Feb.
So basically after last weeks insane unpredictably as a result of the silly Dow Jones shift, it is hard to accurately predict what I believe will happen to Gold this week. But fuck it, lets give it an attempt.
Monday is typically quiet, with only the US Federal Budget Balance potentially causing much volatility in the Gold market. So the direction on Monday does still depend on the level of movement for the Dow. Which is frustrating because the direction is genuinely unknown, the dip did continue for the Dow during the end of last week, with Friday being very low. So maybe this is the bottom and it will recover, it will be interesting!
Tuesday is a little bit busier, we have numerous releases from the UK, their CPI Y/Y release, big news indeed! Forecast is showing a 0.1% decline from last year at 2.9%, so I doubt there will be too much movement in the Gold market from this unless we see a big alteration from the forecast. There is also the UK's PPI Input m/m, which is forecast to 0.6% above last month, and this could shift the cable fairly significantly if hit, and thus we might see even more movement for Gold. Then in the afternoon we have the FOMC member Mester speaking, which could create some volatility in the afternoon period. But Tuesday is looking to be potentially positive day for Gold, and maybe we seeing movement back up to levels beyond $1330.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are all looking busy for the US market and thus Gold, exciting. We have four important releases from the US on Wednesday, their Core and then Normal CPI m/m, which could be interesting, CPI m/m is forecast to be .2% above last month and Core CPI is showing a .1% decline in forecast from last month, and thus it could create a lot of volatility! Then there is the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, both are showing positive forecasts compared to last month. So Wednesday could be dangerous for Gold, maybe seeing a $10 retreat or so.
Thursday is showing strong US forecasts once again, we have their PPI m/m result. Which is forecast to be .5% above last months negative result of -0.1%. So this could create huge movement. Why, because going negative to positive regardless of how much of a percentage change creates movement, it highlights that the economy is back to a positive position and growing instead of retreating. Then there is Core PPI m/m, again, going from negative to positive. And then we have the weekly US Unemployment Change, forecast to be 8k above last week at 229k. Also on Thursday there is the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production m/m. All aren't as effective but will be worth watching when released for consequence, looking like another retreating day for Gold, we might even be seeing a level below $1300 by the end of the week?
Friday we have the UK's Retail Sales m/m, forecast to be 0.6% compared to last months -1.6%. Which is a pretty insane shift, so Friday could see a run for the Cable and this could help Gold regain some of the ground lost earlier in the week. But moving on, we also have the US's Building Permits m/m, we see forecast of 1.31m, 100,000 more than last month. Which is positive and this could lead to all the ground gained from the positive UK data being destroyed! This will be interesting and it does look like this week is going to be very bearish for Gold. But it does depend on whether the Dow continues its retreat, yet if this differs we may see a different journey for the precious metal this week!
Peace.
The Naive Trader
Investing.com, 2018.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Monday is typically quiet, with only the US Federal Budget Balance potentially causing much volatility in the Gold market. So the direction on Monday does still depend on the level of movement for the Dow. Which is frustrating because the direction is genuinely unknown, the dip did continue for the Dow during the end of last week, with Friday being very low. So maybe this is the bottom and it will recover, it will be interesting!
Tuesday is a little bit busier, we have numerous releases from the UK, their CPI Y/Y release, big news indeed! Forecast is showing a 0.1% decline from last year at 2.9%, so I doubt there will be too much movement in the Gold market from this unless we see a big alteration from the forecast. There is also the UK's PPI Input m/m, which is forecast to 0.6% above last month, and this could shift the cable fairly significantly if hit, and thus we might see even more movement for Gold. Then in the afternoon we have the FOMC member Mester speaking, which could create some volatility in the afternoon period. But Tuesday is looking to be potentially positive day for Gold, and maybe we seeing movement back up to levels beyond $1330.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are all looking busy for the US market and thus Gold, exciting. We have four important releases from the US on Wednesday, their Core and then Normal CPI m/m, which could be interesting, CPI m/m is forecast to be .2% above last month and Core CPI is showing a .1% decline in forecast from last month, and thus it could create a lot of volatility! Then there is the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, both are showing positive forecasts compared to last month. So Wednesday could be dangerous for Gold, maybe seeing a $10 retreat or so.
Thursday is showing strong US forecasts once again, we have their PPI m/m result. Which is forecast to be .5% above last months negative result of -0.1%. So this could create huge movement. Why, because going negative to positive regardless of how much of a percentage change creates movement, it highlights that the economy is back to a positive position and growing instead of retreating. Then there is Core PPI m/m, again, going from negative to positive. And then we have the weekly US Unemployment Change, forecast to be 8k above last week at 229k. Also on Thursday there is the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production m/m. All aren't as effective but will be worth watching when released for consequence, looking like another retreating day for Gold, we might even be seeing a level below $1300 by the end of the week?
Friday we have the UK's Retail Sales m/m, forecast to be 0.6% compared to last months -1.6%. Which is a pretty insane shift, so Friday could see a run for the Cable and this could help Gold regain some of the ground lost earlier in the week. But moving on, we also have the US's Building Permits m/m, we see forecast of 1.31m, 100,000 more than last month. Which is positive and this could lead to all the ground gained from the positive UK data being destroyed! This will be interesting and it does look like this week is going to be very bearish for Gold. But it does depend on whether the Dow continues its retreat, yet if this differs we may see a different journey for the precious metal this week!
Peace.
The Naive Trader
Investing.com, 2018.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Comments
Post a Comment