Bulls Swinging into Play.
Wow, what has happened, reflecting on this week the forecasts showed a realistically negative direction for Gold as the US releases looked positive. But such releases which could help positively effect the previous metal seemed limited, but damn I was wrong.
Monday, and we saw a strong shift early, starting the weeks long bull run. There was quick up-shift, in the early hours, moving around $7 without any data releases which is very confusing. But also there was no substantial movement in the USD/JPY market during this time, making it even harder to configure the causes of such a movement. It may have been the result of markets newly opening for the week causing volatility and maybe put with a strong buy order it lead to this movement, but it does seem unlikely, so I don't really know what happened. However, as stated above, this strong start to the week helped swing the bull direction full into play. Mondays main release was China, they released their New Loans and Money Supply result. Both were strongly positive and this did put more pressure on the US Dollar and helped aid the further decline we have seen this week which lead to an increase in the value of the precious metal. So by Mondays close we saw Gold back above $1320, around $7 above the open.
Tuesday was another great day, I think the strong positive result from the UK's CPI yearly report (Basically just the inflation level) at 3.0% highlighted the growth in the Pound. And this is helping build confidence after the Brexit catastrophe which can be seen by the rally in the Cable this week as the Dollar continues its dip. Apart from this there were little other big deviations in releases on Tuesday which helped build momentum in Gold, where the yellow metal closed at $1332, over $10 above open. In two days we have seen over a $17 retrace which is pretty impressive to say the least.
Wednesday's main focus was on the US's CPI and Retail Sales, which was insane. We saw such fluctuations causing a short dip followed by a continue of the bull. US CPI m/m and Core CPI both came in above forecast, by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Which meant we saw a dip in Gold until Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales were released, both 0.5% below forecast and Retail Sales were actually negative at -0.3%! This of course caused much movement, Gold shifting big time, up from $1331 just before the data releases to $1344 about 30 minutes after. WHattttttt, this was huge and Gold continued upwards above $1350 and closed at $1352, pretty fucking surprising.
Thursday was actually chill, the close was basically the same as open, which is unusual. But still there was some movement during the day as always. Thursday focus was again the US releases, we had PPI m/m, bang on target at 0.4%, then Core CPI m/m, a little above forecast at 0.4%. But the effect was limited as Core CPI isn't that influential in the market compared to PPI. We then had the Empire State Manufacturing Index which was quite below par but I feel this was countered by the strongly positive Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So it was a weird period as we saw a $3-$4 deviation throughout the day, but the US Weekly Unemployment Claims I believe helped keep Gold above $1350, we saw a 1k increase, which is small but enough to do a little damage to the US Dollar, and help Gold rally.
Friday, damn, what a day its been. I was very closing to releasing this article before the US releases because it looked clear Gold was going to finish the week very strongly but then I thought I would wait just in case the US releases were of difference to expected. Definitely worth waiting, in the morning Gold was going from strength to strength. It moved from about $1353 all the way to $1360 by only 9.30 am. However, US Building Permits and Housing Starts had other plans, the forecast for the Building Permits was 1.29m, just 10k below last month, however the actual was 110k above this! Which is very unusual, since I have started writing these articles nothing of this magnitude has been seen, and then the Housing Starts were 100k above forecast. These results have caused a fairly substantial dip in Fridays Gold direction and have eroded the early gain as the market is sitting around equal to today's open.
This week has been fascinating, the positive direction of the precious metal is very surprising, but it really does once again expose how weak the Dollar is right now. We are seeing the Dollar well below 110 against the Yen and I have read online in forums discussions about it continuing down all the way to 100. This would be fascinating and it would 100% guarantee Gold hitting $1400.
Peace.
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2018
IG.com, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
Monday, and we saw a strong shift early, starting the weeks long bull run. There was quick up-shift, in the early hours, moving around $7 without any data releases which is very confusing. But also there was no substantial movement in the USD/JPY market during this time, making it even harder to configure the causes of such a movement. It may have been the result of markets newly opening for the week causing volatility and maybe put with a strong buy order it lead to this movement, but it does seem unlikely, so I don't really know what happened. However, as stated above, this strong start to the week helped swing the bull direction full into play. Mondays main release was China, they released their New Loans and Money Supply result. Both were strongly positive and this did put more pressure on the US Dollar and helped aid the further decline we have seen this week which lead to an increase in the value of the precious metal. So by Mondays close we saw Gold back above $1320, around $7 above the open.
Tuesday was another great day, I think the strong positive result from the UK's CPI yearly report (Basically just the inflation level) at 3.0% highlighted the growth in the Pound. And this is helping build confidence after the Brexit catastrophe which can be seen by the rally in the Cable this week as the Dollar continues its dip. Apart from this there were little other big deviations in releases on Tuesday which helped build momentum in Gold, where the yellow metal closed at $1332, over $10 above open. In two days we have seen over a $17 retrace which is pretty impressive to say the least.
Wednesday's main focus was on the US's CPI and Retail Sales, which was insane. We saw such fluctuations causing a short dip followed by a continue of the bull. US CPI m/m and Core CPI both came in above forecast, by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Which meant we saw a dip in Gold until Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales were released, both 0.5% below forecast and Retail Sales were actually negative at -0.3%! This of course caused much movement, Gold shifting big time, up from $1331 just before the data releases to $1344 about 30 minutes after. WHattttttt, this was huge and Gold continued upwards above $1350 and closed at $1352, pretty fucking surprising.
Thursday was actually chill, the close was basically the same as open, which is unusual. But still there was some movement during the day as always. Thursday focus was again the US releases, we had PPI m/m, bang on target at 0.4%, then Core CPI m/m, a little above forecast at 0.4%. But the effect was limited as Core CPI isn't that influential in the market compared to PPI. We then had the Empire State Manufacturing Index which was quite below par but I feel this was countered by the strongly positive Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So it was a weird period as we saw a $3-$4 deviation throughout the day, but the US Weekly Unemployment Claims I believe helped keep Gold above $1350, we saw a 1k increase, which is small but enough to do a little damage to the US Dollar, and help Gold rally.
Friday, damn, what a day its been. I was very closing to releasing this article before the US releases because it looked clear Gold was going to finish the week very strongly but then I thought I would wait just in case the US releases were of difference to expected. Definitely worth waiting, in the morning Gold was going from strength to strength. It moved from about $1353 all the way to $1360 by only 9.30 am. However, US Building Permits and Housing Starts had other plans, the forecast for the Building Permits was 1.29m, just 10k below last month, however the actual was 110k above this! Which is very unusual, since I have started writing these articles nothing of this magnitude has been seen, and then the Housing Starts were 100k above forecast. These results have caused a fairly substantial dip in Fridays Gold direction and have eroded the early gain as the market is sitting around equal to today's open.
This week has been fascinating, the positive direction of the precious metal is very surprising, but it really does once again expose how weak the Dollar is right now. We are seeing the Dollar well below 110 against the Yen and I have read online in forums discussions about it continuing down all the way to 100. This would be fascinating and it would 100% guarantee Gold hitting $1400.
Peace.
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2018
IG.com, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
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