Neither Bear nor Bull.
What a week it has been for the US Dollar, the American economy looking strongly positive over the past week with numerous economic data releases helping to stop the falling dollar.
Golds weekly high was actually seen on open, Monday morning, everything after this it looked as though maybe it was bear from now on. The data release on Monday was fairly insignificant and the decline on Monday was based mainly on the rallying US Dollar, and thus Gold close $10 lower than the open around the $1340 mark.
Tuesday was more of a volatile day, but still continued the trend of a small decline. Again, much of the movement was just based on the volatility surrounding the dollar market, but the release of the US Consumer Confidence which came on above forecast stopped any positive rally for the day for the precious metal. Gold hit $1347 during the afternoon period before the US release and then fell fairly dramatically. This was escalated by the BOE Mr Carney speaking, creating further volatility in the market and by Tuesday close Gold was back down below $1340.
Wednesday was a better day for Gold, the slip witnessed on Monday and Tuesday was met with a rally throughout the day leading to a close just above $1346. Mr Trump spoke early Wednesday morning which was surprisingly undramatic and actually very positive for Gold, within an hour of Mr Trump speaking Gold had risen over $5. Later we had the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which was very positive, coming in around 50k above forecast yet the effect was small because this was still quite far below last months strong positive results. The most influential part of the day was during the FOMC Statement, during the trading period we saw Gold rise from $1336 up to $1345, which is pretty insane. By Wednesday close, as stated above, Gold closed at $1346, very positive!
Thursday, was a quieter day with less big releases but still had a lot of movement. In the morning, the UK's Manufacturing PMI was released, coming in 1 point below forecast, causing Gold to continue its retreat, as it hit $1337 by midday. But surprisingly after this Gold just went up, and its weird because the US Unemployment Claims and the Prelim Unit Labour Costs q/q both were positive. Then later the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was released, which was again positive but all we saw was the continuing of the rally in the afternoon and evening. This is very odd, all this data should of had some quite strong negative influence on Gold yet it different, either the market is fucked(possible) or investors really don't have as much confidence in the Dollar as I first thought.
Friday was a mighty damaging day for Gold, of the 4 big releases throughout the day, 3 of them came out very badly for the yellow metal. UK's Construction PMI was 2 points down from forecast, hurting the cable market quite badly. While later the US Average Hourly Earnings m/m came out 0.1% above forecast, as well for the Non-Farm Employment Change, which was 20k above forecast and finally there was the Unemployment Rate which was bang on forecast at 4.1%. These all very positive results did much damage to the Gold market as expected, falling from $1345 down to $1330 before closing around $3 above.
This week has been very volatile but excluding Friday afternoon we saw neither further upwards movement or back into a bear trend, which is very surprising. So I feel maybe the Dollar has bottomed out and thus it is putting pressure on the high Gold prices.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
IG.com, 2018
Golds weekly high was actually seen on open, Monday morning, everything after this it looked as though maybe it was bear from now on. The data release on Monday was fairly insignificant and the decline on Monday was based mainly on the rallying US Dollar, and thus Gold close $10 lower than the open around the $1340 mark.
Tuesday was more of a volatile day, but still continued the trend of a small decline. Again, much of the movement was just based on the volatility surrounding the dollar market, but the release of the US Consumer Confidence which came on above forecast stopped any positive rally for the day for the precious metal. Gold hit $1347 during the afternoon period before the US release and then fell fairly dramatically. This was escalated by the BOE Mr Carney speaking, creating further volatility in the market and by Tuesday close Gold was back down below $1340.
Wednesday was a better day for Gold, the slip witnessed on Monday and Tuesday was met with a rally throughout the day leading to a close just above $1346. Mr Trump spoke early Wednesday morning which was surprisingly undramatic and actually very positive for Gold, within an hour of Mr Trump speaking Gold had risen over $5. Later we had the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which was very positive, coming in around 50k above forecast yet the effect was small because this was still quite far below last months strong positive results. The most influential part of the day was during the FOMC Statement, during the trading period we saw Gold rise from $1336 up to $1345, which is pretty insane. By Wednesday close, as stated above, Gold closed at $1346, very positive!
Thursday, was a quieter day with less big releases but still had a lot of movement. In the morning, the UK's Manufacturing PMI was released, coming in 1 point below forecast, causing Gold to continue its retreat, as it hit $1337 by midday. But surprisingly after this Gold just went up, and its weird because the US Unemployment Claims and the Prelim Unit Labour Costs q/q both were positive. Then later the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was released, which was again positive but all we saw was the continuing of the rally in the afternoon and evening. This is very odd, all this data should of had some quite strong negative influence on Gold yet it different, either the market is fucked(possible) or investors really don't have as much confidence in the Dollar as I first thought.
Friday was a mighty damaging day for Gold, of the 4 big releases throughout the day, 3 of them came out very badly for the yellow metal. UK's Construction PMI was 2 points down from forecast, hurting the cable market quite badly. While later the US Average Hourly Earnings m/m came out 0.1% above forecast, as well for the Non-Farm Employment Change, which was 20k above forecast and finally there was the Unemployment Rate which was bang on forecast at 4.1%. These all very positive results did much damage to the Gold market as expected, falling from $1345 down to $1330 before closing around $3 above.
This week has been very volatile but excluding Friday afternoon we saw neither further upwards movement or back into a bear trend, which is very surprising. So I feel maybe the Dollar has bottomed out and thus it is putting pressure on the high Gold prices.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
IG.com, 2018
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