THE NAIVE TRADER

This week is looking much busier than the previous few, with numerous big releases 100% having the opportunity to direct the gold market strongly in either a bull or bear trend this week. Monday we have the ECB President Mr Draghi talking about 'the monetary policy and inflation outlook'(Forex Factory, 2018). This will be a volatile period and the outlook could really direct the EUR/USD exchange rate and thus might result in some strong movement for the precious metal during Monday which could lead to hints at whether we will see a bull or bear trend during the rest of the week. Later on Monday we have the US's New Home Sales, which will be worth watching but shouldn't result in too much movement. Tuesday, we have three big releases from the US and a couple more smaller releases worth watching. They have their Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecasting a small decline from last month but still showing growth. Then we have the new Fed Chair Mr Powell speaking, discus...

Its been a weird week, seeing a slow bear movement for Gold, falling around 20 Dollars since Mondays open. Yet we saw no huge fluctuations during the week to change the direction. Monday just had the BOE Governor Mr Carney speaking, thus we didn't really see much effect on Gold because of this as his speech would only affect the Cable market, which has little influence on the precious metal. Therefore on Monday we saw very little movement with Gold, shifting around 2 dollars from open. Tuesday was a volatile day, as Gold shifted quickly downwards, as a result of a strong upward rally for the USD/JPY market. Throughout the day we witnessed numerous results not of huge importance but many had results helping the US Dollar regain some of the lost ground it has seen for the last few weeks. Such as Canadian Whole Sales and New Zealand's GDT Price Index coming in quite under expected which allowed the Dollar to regain some value throughout the day. By the end of the day, we had s...

The retreating Dollar has been the main concern for the last few weeks now, the fall has been impressive and when I think its going to stop it only keeping falling. Now it is sitting at 106 against JPY but I never thought it would get below 107! So the fall may be continuing into this coming week, lets see how the coming releases could influence the Gold market this week. Mondays main focus will be on Mr Carney's speech during the evening period, creating a volatile trading period with the potential of hints through helping explain the future direction of the BOE's Monetary Policy. This should cause traders to speculate constantly throughout his speech which is why we should see a rise in volatility. In the early hours of Tuesday we have the Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Meeting. Similar to Monday where we shall see a very volatile period as traders try to understand what potential underlying policy changes could be hinted towards. However the effects, I believe w...

Wow, what has happened, reflecting on this week the forecasts showed a realistically negative direction for Gold as the US releases looked positive. But such releases which could help positively effect the previous metal seemed limited, but damn I was wrong. Monday, and we saw a strong shift early, starting the weeks long bull run. There was quick up-shift, in the early hours, moving around $7 without any data releases which is very confusing. But also there was no substantial movement in the USD/JPY market during this time, making it even harder to configure the causes of such a movement. It may have been the result of markets newly opening for the week causing volatility and maybe put with a strong buy order it lead to this movement, but it does seem unlikely, so I don't really know what happened. However, as stated above, this strong start to the week helped swing the bull direction full into play. Mondays main release was China, they released their New Loans and Money Supply ...

So basically after last weeks insane unpredictably as a result of the silly Dow Jones shift, it is hard to accurately predict what I believe will happen to Gold this week. But fuck it, lets give it an attempt. Monday is typically quiet, with only the US Federal Budget Balance potentially causing much volatility in the Gold market. So the direction on Monday does still depend on the level of movement for the Dow. Which is frustrating because the direction is genuinely unknown, the dip did continue for the Dow during the end of last week, with Friday being very low. So maybe this is the bottom and it will recover, it will be interesting! Tuesday is a little bit busier, we have numerous releases from the UK, their CPI Y/Y release, big news indeed! Forecast is showing a 0.1% decline from last year at 2.9%, so I doubt there will be too much movement in the Gold market from this unless we see a big alteration from the forecast. There is also the UK's PPI Input m/m, which is forecast ...

Damn, what a crazy week it has been, the decline of Golds value has almost been quite impressive. The fall of the Dow has lead to quite a negative impact throughout markets, falling over 1000 points on the Monday trading period alone! This really isn't surprising, markets have been roaring for years now and a correction did seem imminent. But what is interesting is how this dip effects the Gold market. Monday saw the release of the UK's Service PMI, which came in under forecast by over a point and then the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came out over 3 points above forecast. So this should see a dip in the cable market but also a rally in the USD/JPY market, bhowever this was never witnessed as the falling Dow took priority, creating a strong retreat for the US dollar and thus helped Gold climb back up to the $1340 mark before close. Tuesday, saw an incredible dip, with no real reason in regards to data release, the negative results from Australia early in the morning had little ...

This week is looking quieter for US releases yet we still have numerous influential releases throughout the week, coming from New Zealand and the UK mostly. Monday morning we have the UK's Service PMI, which is forecast to be almost exactly the same as last month at 54.1. The effect I see as being minimal on the Gold market because this data release should technically only influence the cable market within forex and thus the knock-on consequence on Gold will be minimal. But later we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which is forecast to be 0.6 above last month at 56.5. This release could produce quite a dip for the Gold market yet the negative consequence could be limited by ECB President Draghi speaking which will create volatility and could hopefully stop any negativity from the US release earlier. Australian release numerous data during the early early morning, but I doubt their influence will be substantial. They are releasing their Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Cash Rate an...

What a week it has been for the US Dollar, the American economy looking strongly positive over the past week with numerous economic data releases helping to stop the falling dollar. Golds weekly high was actually seen on open, Monday morning, everything after this it looked as though maybe it was bear from now on. The data release on Monday was fairly insignificant and the decline on Monday was based mainly on the rallying US Dollar, and thus Gold close $10 lower than the open around the $1340 mark. Tuesday was more of a volatile day, but still continued the trend of a small decline. Again, much of the movement was just based on the volatility surrounding the dollar market, but the release of the US Consumer Confidence which came on above forecast stopped any positive rally for the day for the precious metal. Gold hit $1347 during the afternoon period before the US release and then fell fairly dramatically. This was escalated by the BOE Mr Carney speaking, creating further volatili...