The Week Ahead: 29th Jan - 2nd Feb
After last weeks incredible rally it seems that maybe this week ahead could see a a continuing of this trend. Monday is busier than last week, but still fairly quiet. We have three data releases from the US however only two are looking to be significant, there is the: Core PCE Price Index m/m and the Personal Spending m/m. Both are forecast to be very similar to the previous month so I doubt we will see much excessive movement caused by these releases. But maybe if either come out worse than expected the dipping dollar may continue and this may potentially shift Gold into an even stronger position.12345
Tuesday has numerous data releases, but only two I reckon will have much effect on the Gold market. Both releases are in the afternoon with a little period between them, first we have the US CB Consumer Confidence, showing a forecast above last month by 1 index percentage. The could swing the Gold market quite substantially depending on the actual result and thus its something to be careful of during Tuesday trading. Then we have the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaking which will create volatility in the Forex Market as investors try to understand what he is hinting towards. This is making Tuesday look like quite a dangerous trading period and might be where we see a high for Gold if correct releases come through but it may also see the start of a bear trend if the results aren't as expected!
Things are looking to heat up a little bit more during mid-week, Wednesday witnesses Mr Trump speaking in the afternoon which shall be chaotic but also has numerous other interesting releases. Australia have have their CPI q/q and Trimmed Mean CPI q/q releases early Wednesday which may throw around the markets a little, but I doubt we will see much effect on Gold during this time. Then later we have Mr Trump speaking, what is going to be discussed exactly isn't known and thus it could create a very volatile morning for the Dollar market and thus the Gold market will be quite volatile as well as it is directly affected by movements in the Dollar. Later we have US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is forecast to be badly negative compared to last month, the potential of a 60k decline. This should mean if hit, any negative consequences from Trumps speech may be rectified by this and help shift Gold to an even stronger level while the Dollar continues its fall from grace.
Finally we have the evening period, the US are releasing their Federal Funds Rate and Federal Reserve Statement. The rate is forecast to be holding at 1.5% which means there shouldn't be too much volatility how the Statement may throw things around a little depending on what is hinted at.
Thursday is quieter than Wednesday thank goodness, only a couple of big releases during the day. Firstly there is US Unemployment Claims, showing a 3k rise from last week, which if hit will dip the dollar a little but don't think it will be too substantial, while at the same time we have the US Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q and the Prelim Labour Costs q/q. These are both strongly positive in their forecast and should counter any negative consequences of the Unemployment Claims. Then later we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, showing a very small decrease from last month which might cause a small dip in the Dollar but I doubt it will be very significant. Thursday is looking to be quite a hard day to predict, I feel it should be a positive day for the Gold market though.
Friday, and we have three important releases, the US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and finally the Unemployment Rate. These releases look very stable, two out of the three are forecast to be spot on last month results while the Non-Farm Change is forecast to be strongly positive, almost 40k above last month. So Friday could be a damaging day for the Gold market, and maybe we will see the weeks low witnessed on the Friday Trading period.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
Tuesday has numerous data releases, but only two I reckon will have much effect on the Gold market. Both releases are in the afternoon with a little period between them, first we have the US CB Consumer Confidence, showing a forecast above last month by 1 index percentage. The could swing the Gold market quite substantially depending on the actual result and thus its something to be careful of during Tuesday trading. Then we have the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaking which will create volatility in the Forex Market as investors try to understand what he is hinting towards. This is making Tuesday look like quite a dangerous trading period and might be where we see a high for Gold if correct releases come through but it may also see the start of a bear trend if the results aren't as expected!
Things are looking to heat up a little bit more during mid-week, Wednesday witnesses Mr Trump speaking in the afternoon which shall be chaotic but also has numerous other interesting releases. Australia have have their CPI q/q and Trimmed Mean CPI q/q releases early Wednesday which may throw around the markets a little, but I doubt we will see much effect on Gold during this time. Then later we have Mr Trump speaking, what is going to be discussed exactly isn't known and thus it could create a very volatile morning for the Dollar market and thus the Gold market will be quite volatile as well as it is directly affected by movements in the Dollar. Later we have US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is forecast to be badly negative compared to last month, the potential of a 60k decline. This should mean if hit, any negative consequences from Trumps speech may be rectified by this and help shift Gold to an even stronger level while the Dollar continues its fall from grace.
Finally we have the evening period, the US are releasing their Federal Funds Rate and Federal Reserve Statement. The rate is forecast to be holding at 1.5% which means there shouldn't be too much volatility how the Statement may throw things around a little depending on what is hinted at.
Thursday is quieter than Wednesday thank goodness, only a couple of big releases during the day. Firstly there is US Unemployment Claims, showing a 3k rise from last week, which if hit will dip the dollar a little but don't think it will be too substantial, while at the same time we have the US Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q and the Prelim Labour Costs q/q. These are both strongly positive in their forecast and should counter any negative consequences of the Unemployment Claims. Then later we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, showing a very small decrease from last month which might cause a small dip in the Dollar but I doubt it will be very significant. Thursday is looking to be quite a hard day to predict, I feel it should be a positive day for the Gold market though.
Friday, and we have three important releases, the US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and finally the Unemployment Rate. These releases look very stable, two out of the three are forecast to be spot on last month results while the Non-Farm Change is forecast to be strongly positive, almost 40k above last month. So Friday could be a damaging day for the Gold market, and maybe we will see the weeks low witnessed on the Friday Trading period.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
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