The Golden Bull Trend.
What a week it has been, Gold has been rallying up and up, which really did catch me off guard as the yellow metal hit a high of $1365 during the early trading period of Thursday. Yet after we did see a dip but this bull seems to be in full force at the moment. The fading Dollar is continuing to provide extra fuel for the bull rally to continue, with the Asian markets powering on all cylinders causing a lot of further pressure on the dwindling Dollar.
Monday due to lack of releases saw little movement for the precious metal, with around just a dollar change from open to close on the day. Tuesday was an important day for the Japanese market, and because of how much effect Japan has on the USD/JPY market I thought we would see a very volatile day. But there wasn't huge volatility, but just a bearish day for the market, good results from the Bank of Japan on numerous caused the bearish trend. This mean we saw the opposite effect in the gold market, with the yellow metal rising just under $10 throughout the trading day.
Wednesday was again another strong day for Gold, a continued rise from Tuesday. But one of the main factors of this was the below-par Existing Home Sales Results for the US, coming in 150k below forecast which lead to a further retreat for the Dollar throughout the afternoon and evening trading period. During the time Gold went from $1340 at open to $1358 at close just after touching $1360. These numbers are very impressive, after last week I thought maybe we had hit out ceiling, with Gold never quite hitting $1350. But this proves me completely wrong, and maybe $1400 really isn't far out of sight with the continuing of the retreat of the US Dollar.
'Gold Prices Ride Dollar Misery to 18 month high', Thursday was indeed a strong morning for Gold. $1365 was hit mid-Thursday, as a result of numerous comments from Mario Draghi about potentially increasing Monetary Policy measures. As Gold hit its high the USD/JPY market hit its low of course, reaching 108.485 before very strongly rebounding straight up to and above 109. The negative affects on the Dollar were reduced a little by better than expected US Unemployment Claims, but this was short lived, which really emphasises that at the moment nothing unless hugely drastic can change the dollars misery. Thursdays close was actually quite low for gold considering what levels were hit earlier in the day, we saw a close of of around $1346.
Friday confirmed that maybe Gold does still have further to run, after falling quickly Thursday evening, the precious metal recovered and has been holding around $1350 throughout the day. This highlights that maybe its another hold before a further rally next week? Anyway, actual releases on Friday of interest were the US Advance GDP q/q and the US Advance Core Durable Goods Order m/m. The Advance GDP was underwhelming, coming in 4% under forecast which didn't do any good for the Dollars value but the Durable Goods fairly a little better, coming in 1% above forecast at 0.6%. But because of Advance GDP before that far under it countered the positive Durable results and helped Gold hold above $1350 throughout the day.
The way things are looking, it seems as though the Dollar may actually be getting worse. I didn't think it could hold below 110 for this long but because of the continuing growth in the Asian markets it has further down-shifted the value of the Dollar and maybe anything above 110 isn't realistic for the next week or so? Gold though, seems to have the potential to continue its rise, there really doesn't seem to be any doubt of the moment, and therefore the investor confidence is behind it. But if the Dollar decline is somehow halted we may see a change of direction for the Yellow metal in the coming weeks.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
Trade.com, 2018
Monday due to lack of releases saw little movement for the precious metal, with around just a dollar change from open to close on the day. Tuesday was an important day for the Japanese market, and because of how much effect Japan has on the USD/JPY market I thought we would see a very volatile day. But there wasn't huge volatility, but just a bearish day for the market, good results from the Bank of Japan on numerous caused the bearish trend. This mean we saw the opposite effect in the gold market, with the yellow metal rising just under $10 throughout the trading day.
Wednesday was again another strong day for Gold, a continued rise from Tuesday. But one of the main factors of this was the below-par Existing Home Sales Results for the US, coming in 150k below forecast which lead to a further retreat for the Dollar throughout the afternoon and evening trading period. During the time Gold went from $1340 at open to $1358 at close just after touching $1360. These numbers are very impressive, after last week I thought maybe we had hit out ceiling, with Gold never quite hitting $1350. But this proves me completely wrong, and maybe $1400 really isn't far out of sight with the continuing of the retreat of the US Dollar.
'Gold Prices Ride Dollar Misery to 18 month high', Thursday was indeed a strong morning for Gold. $1365 was hit mid-Thursday, as a result of numerous comments from Mario Draghi about potentially increasing Monetary Policy measures. As Gold hit its high the USD/JPY market hit its low of course, reaching 108.485 before very strongly rebounding straight up to and above 109. The negative affects on the Dollar were reduced a little by better than expected US Unemployment Claims, but this was short lived, which really emphasises that at the moment nothing unless hugely drastic can change the dollars misery. Thursdays close was actually quite low for gold considering what levels were hit earlier in the day, we saw a close of of around $1346.
Friday confirmed that maybe Gold does still have further to run, after falling quickly Thursday evening, the precious metal recovered and has been holding around $1350 throughout the day. This highlights that maybe its another hold before a further rally next week? Anyway, actual releases on Friday of interest were the US Advance GDP q/q and the US Advance Core Durable Goods Order m/m. The Advance GDP was underwhelming, coming in 4% under forecast which didn't do any good for the Dollars value but the Durable Goods fairly a little better, coming in 1% above forecast at 0.6%. But because of Advance GDP before that far under it countered the positive Durable results and helped Gold hold above $1350 throughout the day.
The way things are looking, it seems as though the Dollar may actually be getting worse. I didn't think it could hold below 110 for this long but because of the continuing growth in the Asian markets it has further down-shifted the value of the Dollar and maybe anything above 110 isn't realistic for the next week or so? Gold though, seems to have the potential to continue its rise, there really doesn't seem to be any doubt of the moment, and therefore the investor confidence is behind it. But if the Dollar decline is somehow halted we may see a change of direction for the Yellow metal in the coming weeks.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
Trade.com, 2018
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