The Week Ahead: 22nd to 26th Jan

Monday was a quiet day for data release, we had only 3 data releases throughout the whole day yet none of them were of much significant and thus Monday saw little movement. What decline there was seemed to be just caused by the small upward rally seen in the Dollar market.

Japan dominates Tuesday and thus the USD/YEN should be a very volatile day and therefore Gold should be bouncing around for much of the early morning period. They are opening with their Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and then finally a Bank of Japan Press Conference. These periods are hugely volatile and could easily direct the markets for the rest of week and it could either further reduce confidence in the Dollar or potentially investors will rush back. So tomorrow will be a very interesting time to watch.

Wednesday shouldn't be too volatile in comparison to Tuesday, we see numerous releases from the UK however the UK typically doesn't have huge influence on the Gold market compared against the Dollar market. We have the UK's  Average Earning Index 3m/y which is forecast to be the same as last month at 2.5%. Then afterwards there is the Claimant Count Change showing a positive forecast while after there is the UK's unemployment rate, which is looking to hold steady at the all time low of 4.3%. Effects, I see little consequence of these results reflected in the Gold market just because none of these releases are of huge importance in the direction of the Gold markets as the pounds power isn't that of the dollar.

Thursday is another interesting day, a fair few releases and potential looking like a positive day for the Yellow Metal if forecasts are achieved. Firstly there is the Euro Minimum Bid Rate which is set to stay at 0.00%, however after this the ECB have a press conference which will create much volatility throughout forex markets. Yet, at a similar time to this we have the Canadian Retail Sales m/m, which is showing growth of 0.1% from last month on the forecast which should help dip the dollar a little. But they are also releasing their Retail Sales m/m and this is showing fairly negative results but the influence on the market of this data is normally less significant and thus maybe the 2 differences will counter each other. 

The US is releasing their weekly Unemployment Claims, forecast showing a 16k increase from last week and this could further damage the dollar position for the day. A little bit after this we have the US New Homes Sales which is again forecast ot be negative compared to last month quite significantly and therefore we may see a bullish rally Thursday afternoon if forecasts are hit.

Friday, again is looking like a very interesting day, it opens with the UK's Prelim GDP q/q, forecast to be holding steady from last quarter at 0.4% and so we should little effect within the forex market as a result I reckon. But the early afternoon is a very busy period, firstly the Canadians are releasing their CPI m/m results, forecast is negative, 0.6% below last month which might cause quite some movement for the Canadian Dollar during this period. Then we have the US's Advance GDP q/q showing a forecast of a decline from last month by 0.2% but still very healthy at 3.0%, and then their Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, with a forecast of 0.6%, strongly above last months negative result. Effects of this are, I believe, going to be fairly limited as the 2 US data releases seem to potential counter each other and thus it will be volatile but my not lead to much directional shift within the Gold market. However, the BOE Governer, Mr Carney And the BOJ Govener Mr Kuroda are both speaking at 2pm which will be cause complete turbulence during the speeches as markets try to decrypt what direction each of the economics are going. 

Therefore it looks like this week will be volatile as fuck! Numerous fluctuating data releases and governors speaking will create uncertinly of course however faith in the Dollar is continuing to dwindle and the down-spiral may not just yet of stopped and Gold might just be going up up and away.

The Naive Trader.

Forex Factory, 2018

Investing.com, 2018