The unseen Bull.
This week has seen a monumental rise for the Gold market, since the new year it has only held a strong bull position and even Thursday dip didn't see the yellow metal coming anywhere near falling below $1300.
Monday as we know was a bank holiday and thus this week only had 4 days of trade. Tuesday was quiet with only the UK's Manufacturing PMI the influential release. We saw actual coming in below forecast by almost two points however the cable is never of huge influence to the Gold market unless we see results far from the predicted. But nonetheless Tuesday saw the start of a bull trend this week which is continuing to rise. I feel the pickle with North Korea 'my button is bigger than your button' has been having quite some effect on the continuance of the Bull trend as it caused investors to have doubt in the Green back and thus dipping the USD/JPY market into a bearish position for most of this week and thus Gold hit '4 month highs' late on Tuesday evening.
Wednesday's main focus was on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, yet this event was only later in the day. First was the release of the UK's Construction PMI which was below forecast by 0.6 yet this really had little/no effect on the days direction. While later we had the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which had actual above forecast by 1.6 points and causing a short dip in the Gold market but it was the FOMC minutes which did the real damage to Spot Gold later in the day. We saw the Bull trend strongly halted, with a dip of around $7 during the period of the meeting while after the dip continued and Gold closed the day just over $10 below open.
We saw a strong rebound Thursday, which was mainly due to the continuing dip in the Dollar as there was little data release to cause much else. But the upward shift was insane, going from around $1306 all the way up to $1324 before closing just below. I lack sufficient knowledge to fully understand what caused this as US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released and it came in almost 60k above forecast!!! Yet the effects were minor on the direction of Gold, so I need to further look into it and find why we saw this mad bull trend yesterday. Yet weekly US unemployment claims were strongly above forecast which further escalated the Gold rally but still doesn't fully explain in my opinion the rally we have been seeing.
Friday has been a busy day, we had 4 pretty important US data releases which all offer big directors for the movement of the USD/JPY and the Gold market. Yet also there were a few data releases from Canada which I have 100% under-looked as they were big movers. Canada's Employment change was hugely positive and thus helped hold the bull position and hinder the volatility within certain markets until the release of the US's Average Hourly Earnings which where bang on forecast and the Non-Farm Employment Rate which was pretty fucking insane, under-performing by over 50k. Therefore Gold has seen a continue of this bull trend after highs of $1323 earlier in the day and then lastly there was the US unemployment rate which was bang on forecast at 4.1%.
This has meant Gold has had a clear bull trend over the last few days and I am surprised actually by how it has rallied. This is because before Christmas Gold would never hit $1300, I kept believing it would and always get to around $1296 or so before retreating so I don't know how long this bull can last especially because we are starting to see a turn in the Green Back. It is slowly stopping its bearish movement and rallying up causing Gold to Hold and potentially dip a little soon.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2017
Investing.com, 2017
Trade.com, 2017
Monday as we know was a bank holiday and thus this week only had 4 days of trade. Tuesday was quiet with only the UK's Manufacturing PMI the influential release. We saw actual coming in below forecast by almost two points however the cable is never of huge influence to the Gold market unless we see results far from the predicted. But nonetheless Tuesday saw the start of a bull trend this week which is continuing to rise. I feel the pickle with North Korea 'my button is bigger than your button' has been having quite some effect on the continuance of the Bull trend as it caused investors to have doubt in the Green back and thus dipping the USD/JPY market into a bearish position for most of this week and thus Gold hit '4 month highs' late on Tuesday evening.
Wednesday's main focus was on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, yet this event was only later in the day. First was the release of the UK's Construction PMI which was below forecast by 0.6 yet this really had little/no effect on the days direction. While later we had the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which had actual above forecast by 1.6 points and causing a short dip in the Gold market but it was the FOMC minutes which did the real damage to Spot Gold later in the day. We saw the Bull trend strongly halted, with a dip of around $7 during the period of the meeting while after the dip continued and Gold closed the day just over $10 below open.
We saw a strong rebound Thursday, which was mainly due to the continuing dip in the Dollar as there was little data release to cause much else. But the upward shift was insane, going from around $1306 all the way up to $1324 before closing just below. I lack sufficient knowledge to fully understand what caused this as US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released and it came in almost 60k above forecast!!! Yet the effects were minor on the direction of Gold, so I need to further look into it and find why we saw this mad bull trend yesterday. Yet weekly US unemployment claims were strongly above forecast which further escalated the Gold rally but still doesn't fully explain in my opinion the rally we have been seeing.
Friday has been a busy day, we had 4 pretty important US data releases which all offer big directors for the movement of the USD/JPY and the Gold market. Yet also there were a few data releases from Canada which I have 100% under-looked as they were big movers. Canada's Employment change was hugely positive and thus helped hold the bull position and hinder the volatility within certain markets until the release of the US's Average Hourly Earnings which where bang on forecast and the Non-Farm Employment Rate which was pretty fucking insane, under-performing by over 50k. Therefore Gold has seen a continue of this bull trend after highs of $1323 earlier in the day and then lastly there was the US unemployment rate which was bang on forecast at 4.1%.
This has meant Gold has had a clear bull trend over the last few days and I am surprised actually by how it has rallied. This is because before Christmas Gold would never hit $1300, I kept believing it would and always get to around $1296 or so before retreating so I don't know how long this bull can last especially because we are starting to see a turn in the Green Back. It is slowly stopping its bearish movement and rallying up causing Gold to Hold and potentially dip a little soon.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2017
Investing.com, 2017
Trade.com, 2017
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