The Retreating Dollar.
It has been another insane week for the bull trend we are seeing in the gold market, a continuing shift upwards as a result of the dwindling dollar.
Monday in regards to data releases was a quiet day and this can be seen with the lack of movement witnessed throughout the day. I felt almost as though maybe Monday might have been the breaking point and anything after would be a downward trend because the value seems awfully high at that time but I was indeed proven mighty wrong. Tuesday again was a quiet day however my belief in the dip coming in seemed to start to show. Tuesday saw a slide in Gold of such which highlighted the potential for a bear trend coming into play as it fell from $1320-$1310 in quite a steady 3 dip trend and thus it seemed as though Gold must of peaked on the Monday trading period.
Midweek was were it seemed Gold held, which I feel was mainly due to US Import Prices m/m coming in 0.3% below forecast and this caused investors to question whether the Dollar had hit its bottom or maybe that there were further dips to come later in the week.
Thursday was a damaging day for the Green back, three fairly important data releases from the US were all underwhelming. There was the US PPI m/m coming in negative at -0.1% and 0.3 below the forecast, then we had the Core PPI m/m and again this was negative and 0.3% below forecast at -0.1%, and then finally the US Weekly Unemployment Claims were released which came in quite strongly over forecast at 261k compared to the 246k predicted. These bad results helped shift the Dollar into a fairly quick and dangerous bear position for the 2nd half of Thursday and only helped escalate the value of the Yellow metal, and thus by Thursday close a troy ounce of the precious metal was back on track towards $1330.
The most brutal day of the week was indeed Friday, Gold hit new highs and smashed my target from last week of $1330, which is pretty cool. The data releases on Friday should show that the Dollar must of rebounded with all US data either holding or coming in above forecast however the big influence was the Euro Central Bank meeting where ideals of 'monetary policy tightening may be coming soon'. This pushed the EUR/USD into a strong upward movement which in-turn dipped the Dollar further down on Friday to levels such as 110.90 against the Yen and a high in the cable market of 1.37 which is pretty nuts. As you know this led to the Yellow metal smashing my prediction at the start of week and hitting highs of $1339 before closing just below at $1338.
This week has been another very impressive showing of how much Gold can rally and it seems we might see further progression as the weeks go on. However I don't believe the Dollar can dip that much further so maybe levels of $1350 could be a peak for Gold?
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
Trade.com, 2018
Monday in regards to data releases was a quiet day and this can be seen with the lack of movement witnessed throughout the day. I felt almost as though maybe Monday might have been the breaking point and anything after would be a downward trend because the value seems awfully high at that time but I was indeed proven mighty wrong. Tuesday again was a quiet day however my belief in the dip coming in seemed to start to show. Tuesday saw a slide in Gold of such which highlighted the potential for a bear trend coming into play as it fell from $1320-$1310 in quite a steady 3 dip trend and thus it seemed as though Gold must of peaked on the Monday trading period.
Midweek was were it seemed Gold held, which I feel was mainly due to US Import Prices m/m coming in 0.3% below forecast and this caused investors to question whether the Dollar had hit its bottom or maybe that there were further dips to come later in the week.
Thursday was a damaging day for the Green back, three fairly important data releases from the US were all underwhelming. There was the US PPI m/m coming in negative at -0.1% and 0.3 below the forecast, then we had the Core PPI m/m and again this was negative and 0.3% below forecast at -0.1%, and then finally the US Weekly Unemployment Claims were released which came in quite strongly over forecast at 261k compared to the 246k predicted. These bad results helped shift the Dollar into a fairly quick and dangerous bear position for the 2nd half of Thursday and only helped escalate the value of the Yellow metal, and thus by Thursday close a troy ounce of the precious metal was back on track towards $1330.
The most brutal day of the week was indeed Friday, Gold hit new highs and smashed my target from last week of $1330, which is pretty cool. The data releases on Friday should show that the Dollar must of rebounded with all US data either holding or coming in above forecast however the big influence was the Euro Central Bank meeting where ideals of 'monetary policy tightening may be coming soon'. This pushed the EUR/USD into a strong upward movement which in-turn dipped the Dollar further down on Friday to levels such as 110.90 against the Yen and a high in the cable market of 1.37 which is pretty nuts. As you know this led to the Yellow metal smashing my prediction at the start of week and hitting highs of $1339 before closing just below at $1338.
This week has been another very impressive showing of how much Gold can rally and it seems we might see further progression as the weeks go on. However I don't believe the Dollar can dip that much further so maybe levels of $1350 could be a peak for Gold?
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Investing.com, 2018
Trade.com, 2018
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