The Week Ahead: 15th-19th Jan
Gold is continuing an aggressive long-term bull which is quite impressive to see, I do almost feel as though its getting close to a peak. Monday is as usual a quiet day with little data releases and also the US is on a bank holiday so the volatility one may expect on a typical Monday may be reduced, yet we do have the BOE member Tenereyro speaking in the mid-afternoon which could lead to a small instability yet the effects shall be limited.
Tuesday is a busy day for Britain, there are numerous significant releases which might have more effect that first believed. There is the CPI y/y, which is a big influence, forecast is showing a decline of 0.1% from last year, after this there is the PPI Input m/m which is forecast to be 1.3% below last month! This is a substantial decline and if correct might cause quite a damaging day for the cable value and hinder any further growth in the value of Gold during Tuesday trading. Furthermore we also have the RPI y/y results, expected to hold the same as last year at a strong 3.9% growth rate which is indeed very positive yet it is not as influential as the 2 releases above and thus the effect shall be limited. Lastly for Tuesday, we have the Swiss National Bank Chairman speaking, this is a small region of potential effect yet the potential volatility that may be created cannot be disregarded, so the evening period is worth watching but not worth trading.
Wednesday, like Tuesday is a day consumed with various releases from a single country. We have the Canadian's releasing 4 of the 5 main important releases during the day. First there is the BOC Monetary Policy Report, released quarterly which will cause a lot of volatility within the USD/CAD market and thus could really effect the value of the Green Back. Yet at the same time we have their Canadian Rate Statement and thus depending on how much they tighten interest rate can show investors whether to hold or shift their investments elsewhere, while this is released, we also have their Overnight Rate, which is forecast to increase by 0.25% from 1% up to 1.25%. This if correct will help shift the Canadian Dollar further upwards while further dipping the green back and therefore should further push up the price of Gold, I feel we should see $1350 by Wednesday if these forecasts are correct.
Then about an hour after these big releases, we have the BOC Press Conference, which first a statement about future developments and then there is an open Q&A which I am told can create much volatility as potential answers may hint at directional moves before unseen. Then lastly late in the evening we have FOMC member Mester Speaking in the US, which will create an even more volatile end trading period, and thus, much like Tuesday, Wednesday will be a fascinating and interesting day for Traders regardless of markets.
China is important on Thursday it would seem, two big pieces of data release, their GDP quarterly results and their Industrial Production yearly results. Their GDP is showing a 0.1% decline from the last period but still a huge growth level of 6.7%, much greater than any country with a similar GDP and their Industrial Production is showing a forecast holding the same as last year at 6.1%, which again is incredible. The effects are fairly unknown considering how closed China's economy is. But if results come in above or equal to forecast we may see a dip in the dollar as it the Chinese Yen's closed rival almost yet I really don't know exactly.
Later the US are releasing their Building Permits, Unemployment Claims and Housing Starts. Building Permits and Housing starts are both showing a forecast below last month while Weekly Unemployment Claims forecast is showing a fall of 10k. Therefore the effects during this period shall be interesting as the Unemployment Forecast should push up the Dollar while the week building permits and Housing Start forecast should dip it and thus the effect will depend how far each result actually differs from the forecast but I can easily see a further dip of the Dollar during the days trading period and therefore an even stronger rally in the Gold market.
Friday is quiet for once, it would seem, we only have Britain's Retail Sales m/m coming out which will have any effect, it is forecast to be negative and also a 1.9% difference from last month however last month was the Christmas period and January is always sluggish so I doubt the result will have that much effect. But still may cause a dip in the Friday direction of the cable and maybe the value of the yellow metal will peak on Thursday and ease down to a weaker close on Friday.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Trade.com, 2018
Tuesday is a busy day for Britain, there are numerous significant releases which might have more effect that first believed. There is the CPI y/y, which is a big influence, forecast is showing a decline of 0.1% from last year, after this there is the PPI Input m/m which is forecast to be 1.3% below last month! This is a substantial decline and if correct might cause quite a damaging day for the cable value and hinder any further growth in the value of Gold during Tuesday trading. Furthermore we also have the RPI y/y results, expected to hold the same as last year at a strong 3.9% growth rate which is indeed very positive yet it is not as influential as the 2 releases above and thus the effect shall be limited. Lastly for Tuesday, we have the Swiss National Bank Chairman speaking, this is a small region of potential effect yet the potential volatility that may be created cannot be disregarded, so the evening period is worth watching but not worth trading.
Wednesday, like Tuesday is a day consumed with various releases from a single country. We have the Canadian's releasing 4 of the 5 main important releases during the day. First there is the BOC Monetary Policy Report, released quarterly which will cause a lot of volatility within the USD/CAD market and thus could really effect the value of the Green Back. Yet at the same time we have their Canadian Rate Statement and thus depending on how much they tighten interest rate can show investors whether to hold or shift their investments elsewhere, while this is released, we also have their Overnight Rate, which is forecast to increase by 0.25% from 1% up to 1.25%. This if correct will help shift the Canadian Dollar further upwards while further dipping the green back and therefore should further push up the price of Gold, I feel we should see $1350 by Wednesday if these forecasts are correct.
Then about an hour after these big releases, we have the BOC Press Conference, which first a statement about future developments and then there is an open Q&A which I am told can create much volatility as potential answers may hint at directional moves before unseen. Then lastly late in the evening we have FOMC member Mester Speaking in the US, which will create an even more volatile end trading period, and thus, much like Tuesday, Wednesday will be a fascinating and interesting day for Traders regardless of markets.
China is important on Thursday it would seem, two big pieces of data release, their GDP quarterly results and their Industrial Production yearly results. Their GDP is showing a 0.1% decline from the last period but still a huge growth level of 6.7%, much greater than any country with a similar GDP and their Industrial Production is showing a forecast holding the same as last year at 6.1%, which again is incredible. The effects are fairly unknown considering how closed China's economy is. But if results come in above or equal to forecast we may see a dip in the dollar as it the Chinese Yen's closed rival almost yet I really don't know exactly.
Later the US are releasing their Building Permits, Unemployment Claims and Housing Starts. Building Permits and Housing starts are both showing a forecast below last month while Weekly Unemployment Claims forecast is showing a fall of 10k. Therefore the effects during this period shall be interesting as the Unemployment Forecast should push up the Dollar while the week building permits and Housing Start forecast should dip it and thus the effect will depend how far each result actually differs from the forecast but I can easily see a further dip of the Dollar during the days trading period and therefore an even stronger rally in the Gold market.
Friday is quiet for once, it would seem, we only have Britain's Retail Sales m/m coming out which will have any effect, it is forecast to be negative and also a 1.9% difference from last month however last month was the Christmas period and January is always sluggish so I doubt the result will have that much effect. But still may cause a dip in the Friday direction of the cable and maybe the value of the yellow metal will peak on Thursday and ease down to a weaker close on Friday.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018
Trade.com, 2018
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