THE NAIVE TRADER

After last weeks incredible rally it seems that maybe this week ahead could see a a continuing of this trend. Monday is busier than last week, but still fairly quiet. We have three data releases from the US however only two are looking to be significant, there is the: Core PCE Price Index m/m and the Personal Spending m/m. Both are forecast to be very similar to the previous month so I doubt we will see much excessive movement caused by these releases. But maybe if either come out worse than expected the dipping dollar may continue and this may potentially shift Gold into an even stronger position.12345 Tuesday has numerous data releases, but only two I reckon will have much effect on the Gold market. Both releases are in the afternoon with a little period between them, first we have the US CB Consumer Confidence, showing a forecast above last month by 1 index percentage. The could swing the Gold market quite substantially depending on the actual result and thus its something to be c...

What a week it has been, Gold has been rallying up and up, which really did catch me off guard as the yellow metal hit a high of $1365 during the early trading period of Thursday. Yet after we did see a dip but this bull seems to be in full force at the moment. The fading Dollar is continuing to provide extra fuel for the bull rally to continue, with the Asian markets powering on all cylinders causing a lot of further pressure on the dwindling Dollar. Monday due to lack of releases saw little movement for the precious metal, with around just a dollar change from open to close on the day. Tuesday was an important day for the Japanese market, and because of how much effect Japan has on the USD/JPY market I thought we would see a very volatile day. But there wasn't huge volatility, but just a bearish day for the market, good results from the Bank of Japan on numerous caused the bearish trend. This mean we saw the opposite effect in the gold market, with the yellow metal rising just ...

Monday was a quiet day for data release, we had only 3 data releases throughout the whole day yet none of them were of much significant and thus Monday saw little movement. What decline there was seemed to be just caused by the small upward rally seen in the Dollar market. Japan dominates Tuesday and thus the USD/YEN should be a very volatile day and therefore Gold should be bouncing around for much of the early morning period. They are opening with their Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and then finally a Bank of Japan Press Conference. These periods are hugely volatile and could easily direct the markets for the rest of week and it could either further reduce confidence in the Dollar or potentially investors will rush back. So tomorrow will be a very interesting time to watch. Wednesday shouldn't be too volatile in comparison to Tuesday, we see numerous releases from the UK however the UK typically doesn't have huge influence on the Gold market compared agains...

The week opened quietly with Monday holding a very high level which seemed to be almost where the yellow metal peaked for the week, levels of $1344 were hit however my belief of $1350 coming into play may be just too soon. Tuesday was quite a damaging day for Gold, UK data release were weak, the CPI y/y results were straight on forecast at 3.0%. Yet other releases from the UK weren't as expected, coming in below forecast. PPI Input m/m was 0.4% below forecast at 0.1% which was surprisingly damaging, and by the end of the afternoon Gold had fallen $10 from Mondays high. But also I believe a lot of the movement was as a result of the volatility surrounding the dollar through Tuesday's trading period. Yet the dip did rebound later in the evening, with Tuesday closing at $1340. Wednesday had a big fall for the Yellow metal, after opening and witnessing a short upward rally to $1343 it looked as though the bull would continue. But that was short lasted, we saw just a downward fa...

Gold is continuing an aggressive long-term bull which is quite impressive to see, I do almost feel as though its getting close to a peak. Monday is as usual a quiet day with little data releases and also the US is on a bank holiday so the volatility one may expect on a typical Monday may be reduced, yet we do have the BOE member Tenereyro speaking in the mid-afternoon which could lead to a small instability yet the effects shall be limited. Tuesday is a busy day for Britain, there are numerous significant releases which might have more effect that first believed. There is the CPI y/y, which is a big influence, forecast is showing a decline of 0.1% from last year, after this there is the PPI Input m/m which is forecast to be 1.3% below last month! This is a substantial decline and if correct might cause quite a damaging day for the cable value and hinder any further growth in the value of Gold during Tuesday trading. Furthermore we also have the RPI y/y results, expected to hold the s...

It has been another insane week for the bull trend we are seeing in the gold market, a continuing shift upwards as a result of the dwindling dollar. Monday in regards to data releases was a quiet day and this can be seen with the lack of movement witnessed throughout the day. I felt almost as though maybe Monday might have been the breaking point and anything after would be a downward trend because the value seems awfully high at that time but I was indeed proven mighty wrong. Tuesday again was a quiet day however my belief in the dip coming in seemed to start to show. Tuesday saw a slide in Gold of such which highlighted the potential for a bear trend coming into play as it fell from $1320-$1310 in quite a steady 3 dip trend and thus it seemed as though Gold must of peaked on the Monday trading period. Midweek was were it seemed Gold held, which I feel was mainly due to US Import Prices m/m coming in 0.3% below forecast and this caused investors to question whether the Dollar had ...

This week begins with a quiet Monday, something quite typical it would seem, yet we do have the FOMC member Williams speaking in the evening and thus could create a volatile period during his speech yet I doubt the effect shall be significant throughout either the dollar/yen market or within Spot Gold market. Yet again for Tuesday we see similar to Monday, numerous data releases however none of significant effect I believe will influence the market. Which makes Tuesday quite a dangerous day as I have no idea how far the market will move during the day trading period. Wednesday is continuing the trend of being mighty anti-dramatic in terms of potential big data releases. But we do have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m, which is showing a forecast above the previous month at 0.3%. This will have little effect on the Gold market but might result in a short rally in the Cable, but how far I don't know. The 4th day of the week is as always typically busier, we have a coup...

This week has seen a monumental rise for the Gold market, since the new year it has only held a strong bull position and even Thursday dip didn't see the yellow metal coming anywhere near falling below $1300. Monday as we know was a bank holiday and thus this week only had 4 days of trade. Tuesday was quiet with only the UK's Manufacturing PMI the influential release. We saw actual coming in below forecast by almost two points however the cable is never of huge influence to the Gold market unless we see results far from the predicted. But nonetheless Tuesday saw the start of a bull trend this week which is continuing to rise. I feel the pickle with North Korea 'my button is bigger than your button' has been having quite some effect on the continuance of the Bull trend as it caused investors to have doubt in the Green back and thus dipping the USD/JPY market into a bearish position for most of this week and thus Gold hit '4 month highs' late on Tuesday evening....