Zimbabwe and Geopolitical issues still there!!
Monday and Tuesday have been interesting to say the least, more Tuesday to be honest. Monday with the release of the US Federal Budget, which didn't do much for the direction. The actual was above expected but normally these results fluctuate so the implications weren't massive.
Gold however did continue to continue its rally upwards, due to political discussions in Asia, such as Japan. But the extent to which Gold rallied was less than I expected, I believed it would hit $1280 by the end of Monday yet it peaked just below, floating around the $1279 region before closing lower which was frustrating.
Tuesday was pretty mad, that is more why I am writing this article today. Draghi, Yellen, Carney and numerous other central all met to discuss each countries economic results etc. It was fucking insane, because of such outcomes as British inflation being below forecast at 3.0% which I stated was one of a few big data releases from the UK, while the other releases from the UK were all fairly similar, however this caused a huge dip in the Cable, about 1 cent it led to Gold basically free falling for a bit, which was unexpected, from $1276 down to $1270 before going straight back up and even further after the US market opened and there was uncertainty about Tax reform. This meant investors shifted their equity over to Gold, moving it way above $1280 before continuing to rally further where it now sits at $1285. I did reckon Gold would continue to rally into a bull position but I am very surprised about how far it has gone.
Until I looked at the news and saw the 'military coup' taking place in Zimbabwe, which is good to see from a personal standpoint, hopefully it leads to a revolution of some sort which will help out the so called 'President' Mugabe. But who knows. Anyway for Gold this should be good, I believe it will lead to a further upwards rally as it escalates the continuing Political issues being highlighted around the world especially in some of the most turbulent regions.
Wednesday seemed to be playing into what I suspected, reaching $1288, I thought I was genius, continuing upwards, looking to hit $1290 but then bam. It cam crashing back down sadly. This was because of the US data release showing strong results in the Retail Sales m/m which was above forecast at 0.2%, highlighting potential growth in the US economy. But also CPI m/m was on target further helping shift the Dollar up against other majors. Yet because of this strong set of results Gold experienced a strong dip, falling to just above $1277 before holding, some massive dip. This really didn't help what I thought would be a rally as stated in the paragraph above.
But moving forward, we now have Thursday which is almost over in-terms of Data release. Good Retail sales results from the UK, with a result above forecast at 0.3% put with US unemployment Claims being above forecast at 249k has helped push Gold up above the $1280 per ounce once again. This is good, after yesterdays manic movement I reckon we have seen the bottom of the troff for the week at least. So it looks like Gold will continue to rise and hold above $1280 till Friday.
Yet even on Friday there aren't too many dangerous Data releases. Canada has their monthly CPI m/m releases, forecast is below previous at 0.1% but it could if above cause a rally against the Dollar, further helping a bullish Gold Position. Later in the day we have US Building Permits m/m, forecast is showing a rise from the previous month, at 1.25m compared to 1.23m(Forex Factory, 2017). It sounds small but this has a strong impact on the Dollar and thus it is important to watch the outcome. If the actual is below forecast we could see a beautiful further bullish position and then when the US markets open later maybe even highs of $1280's. This would be awesome and not recently have Forecasts being spot on and thus making large opportunity for quick cash if you can spot the right movement before their is a huge dip or rally.
Thus concluding, I believe Friday is looking good for a long slow rally up to $1285 beyond and this might be escalated if Forecasts aren't met in regards to US Building Permits.
The Naive Trader.
Gold however did continue to continue its rally upwards, due to political discussions in Asia, such as Japan. But the extent to which Gold rallied was less than I expected, I believed it would hit $1280 by the end of Monday yet it peaked just below, floating around the $1279 region before closing lower which was frustrating.
Tuesday was pretty mad, that is more why I am writing this article today. Draghi, Yellen, Carney and numerous other central all met to discuss each countries economic results etc. It was fucking insane, because of such outcomes as British inflation being below forecast at 3.0% which I stated was one of a few big data releases from the UK, while the other releases from the UK were all fairly similar, however this caused a huge dip in the Cable, about 1 cent it led to Gold basically free falling for a bit, which was unexpected, from $1276 down to $1270 before going straight back up and even further after the US market opened and there was uncertainty about Tax reform. This meant investors shifted their equity over to Gold, moving it way above $1280 before continuing to rally further where it now sits at $1285. I did reckon Gold would continue to rally into a bull position but I am very surprised about how far it has gone.
Until I looked at the news and saw the 'military coup' taking place in Zimbabwe, which is good to see from a personal standpoint, hopefully it leads to a revolution of some sort which will help out the so called 'President' Mugabe. But who knows. Anyway for Gold this should be good, I believe it will lead to a further upwards rally as it escalates the continuing Political issues being highlighted around the world especially in some of the most turbulent regions.
Wednesday seemed to be playing into what I suspected, reaching $1288, I thought I was genius, continuing upwards, looking to hit $1290 but then bam. It cam crashing back down sadly. This was because of the US data release showing strong results in the Retail Sales m/m which was above forecast at 0.2%, highlighting potential growth in the US economy. But also CPI m/m was on target further helping shift the Dollar up against other majors. Yet because of this strong set of results Gold experienced a strong dip, falling to just above $1277 before holding, some massive dip. This really didn't help what I thought would be a rally as stated in the paragraph above.
But moving forward, we now have Thursday which is almost over in-terms of Data release. Good Retail sales results from the UK, with a result above forecast at 0.3% put with US unemployment Claims being above forecast at 249k has helped push Gold up above the $1280 per ounce once again. This is good, after yesterdays manic movement I reckon we have seen the bottom of the troff for the week at least. So it looks like Gold will continue to rise and hold above $1280 till Friday.
Yet even on Friday there aren't too many dangerous Data releases. Canada has their monthly CPI m/m releases, forecast is below previous at 0.1% but it could if above cause a rally against the Dollar, further helping a bullish Gold Position. Later in the day we have US Building Permits m/m, forecast is showing a rise from the previous month, at 1.25m compared to 1.23m(Forex Factory, 2017). It sounds small but this has a strong impact on the Dollar and thus it is important to watch the outcome. If the actual is below forecast we could see a beautiful further bullish position and then when the US markets open later maybe even highs of $1280's. This would be awesome and not recently have Forecasts being spot on and thus making large opportunity for quick cash if you can spot the right movement before their is a huge dip or rally.
Thus concluding, I believe Friday is looking good for a long slow rally up to $1285 beyond and this might be escalated if Forecasts aren't met in regards to US Building Permits.
The Naive Trader.
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