$1300?
Friday after Thanksgiving was lacking action, something I was very surprised about as I believed the data releases on Thursday would result on a knock-on effect for Friday. Yet I was wrong, the movement experienced was lacking excitement, closing at $1288 after opening at $1291.
So the week was fairly volatile yet there was neither a strong Bull or Bear throughout the week with the close being close to what was seen on Monday. But this does lead to potential excitement for the week ahead.
The week starting 27th November is looking busy. Monday's focus is on the US New Homes Sales and the New York Fed President speaks. Previous results for home sales show potential wide fluctuations and thus if the forecast of 627k(Forex Factory, 2017) isn't met, which is down from last month. It may help continue to shift golds upward movement. So far today Gold is rallying strong, which is very exciting. Neither one of these two events are hugely significant so it might mean the effect on Gold is limited.
Tuesday is pretty busy tbh. The first important piece of data release is the UK's Bank Stress Results, this happens once per year so it may be very important in the UK market however I honestly don't know how this will direct the Gold market. Only 30mins after Mr Carney is to speak, this will cause volatility within markets yet the US market won't be open at this time as thus the depth of effect may be reduced because of this. Later we have the Canadian Raw Materials Price Index which doesn't look very exciting but it could be a big hitter depending on results, if the actual isn't negative as the previous month was we could continue to see a downward trend in the dollar which might mean that Gold's movement will be strongly positive like today.
At 4pm we see US Consumer Confidence results and Mr Powell speaks, this is exciting, as this might lead to a very volatile 30-1hour trading period as markets try to respond to what is said and what the Consumer Confidence results show. Consumer Confidence is forecast to be below last Months and this could further escalate the level of Gold. While later on, in the evening we have the Bank of Canada's governer Mr Poloz speaking then the New Zealand Central Bank's Stability report is released quite late into the evening. This might once again lead to a volatile evening, which will interesting to see how this directs the price level of Gold and might direct the level for the rest of the week.
Wednesday is looking more straight-forward, with all but one important events being data releases. First we have Germany Prelim CPI m/m, with forecast looking positive compared to last months flat data results. This is important however the forecast isn't that drastic so I doubt the actual effect on surrounding economics and markets shall be limited. Next we have the UK's Net Lending m/m, which is forecast to be down quite significantly compared to last months 5.5bn at 4.3bn(Forex Factory, 2017). This decline might damage the cable for the day and might see a dip in Gold if this is hit, but it depends how close to the forecast the actual result is.
In the afternoon we have the US Prelim GDP q/q, which is looking at forecast of 3.3% compared to last quarter result of 3.0%(Investing.com, 2017). This again is strongly positive and if met will lead to a continued rally for the Dollar, and thus its looking like Wednesday might be quite a negative day for Golds position. Yellon shall be speaking as well later in the day and then finally we have US Pending Home Sales m/m. This is once again, looking strongly positive, forecast of 1.1% compared to last months 0.0%. Further emphasising that potential for Wednesday to be mighty damaging to the Bull trend we are now seeing in Gold. What level it drops to will depend completely on how strong the data releases are.
I am going to continue Thursday and Friday in another article as there is alot to write about!
So the week was fairly volatile yet there was neither a strong Bull or Bear throughout the week with the close being close to what was seen on Monday. But this does lead to potential excitement for the week ahead.
The week starting 27th November is looking busy. Monday's focus is on the US New Homes Sales and the New York Fed President speaks. Previous results for home sales show potential wide fluctuations and thus if the forecast of 627k(Forex Factory, 2017) isn't met, which is down from last month. It may help continue to shift golds upward movement. So far today Gold is rallying strong, which is very exciting. Neither one of these two events are hugely significant so it might mean the effect on Gold is limited.
Tuesday is pretty busy tbh. The first important piece of data release is the UK's Bank Stress Results, this happens once per year so it may be very important in the UK market however I honestly don't know how this will direct the Gold market. Only 30mins after Mr Carney is to speak, this will cause volatility within markets yet the US market won't be open at this time as thus the depth of effect may be reduced because of this. Later we have the Canadian Raw Materials Price Index which doesn't look very exciting but it could be a big hitter depending on results, if the actual isn't negative as the previous month was we could continue to see a downward trend in the dollar which might mean that Gold's movement will be strongly positive like today.
At 4pm we see US Consumer Confidence results and Mr Powell speaks, this is exciting, as this might lead to a very volatile 30-1hour trading period as markets try to respond to what is said and what the Consumer Confidence results show. Consumer Confidence is forecast to be below last Months and this could further escalate the level of Gold. While later on, in the evening we have the Bank of Canada's governer Mr Poloz speaking then the New Zealand Central Bank's Stability report is released quite late into the evening. This might once again lead to a volatile evening, which will interesting to see how this directs the price level of Gold and might direct the level for the rest of the week.
Wednesday is looking more straight-forward, with all but one important events being data releases. First we have Germany Prelim CPI m/m, with forecast looking positive compared to last months flat data results. This is important however the forecast isn't that drastic so I doubt the actual effect on surrounding economics and markets shall be limited. Next we have the UK's Net Lending m/m, which is forecast to be down quite significantly compared to last months 5.5bn at 4.3bn(Forex Factory, 2017). This decline might damage the cable for the day and might see a dip in Gold if this is hit, but it depends how close to the forecast the actual result is.
In the afternoon we have the US Prelim GDP q/q, which is looking at forecast of 3.3% compared to last quarter result of 3.0%(Investing.com, 2017). This again is strongly positive and if met will lead to a continued rally for the Dollar, and thus its looking like Wednesday might be quite a negative day for Golds position. Yellon shall be speaking as well later in the day and then finally we have US Pending Home Sales m/m. This is once again, looking strongly positive, forecast of 1.1% compared to last months 0.0%. Further emphasising that potential for Wednesday to be mighty damaging to the Bull trend we are now seeing in Gold. What level it drops to will depend completely on how strong the data releases are.
I am going to continue Thursday and Friday in another article as there is alot to write about!
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