Reflection & this week
Friday should of been a damaging day for Gold, US Building Permits result being above Forecast at 1.30m compared to forecast of 1.25m(Forex Factory, 2017). This normally, ceterius paribus, should mean Gold dips as the Dollar upshifts. However Friday offered good news for bullish traders in Gold, North Korea refusing to negotiate about their Nuclear Weapons and just the madness in Zimbabwe helped Gold continue up to $1296 per troy ounce before slowing and closing on Friday just above $1290. Pretty sweet week in my opinion, showing nothing is really slowing Gold long-term.
This week isn't too busy, Monday's movement at the moment is very jittery, seeming to be based on uncertainly about what is going to be happening to the US corporation tax change that Mr Trump is trying to implement. Trading today is looking pretty hard, Gold is falling slowly due to the rally that the dollar is experiencing against the Yen, thus making it difficult to decide where to sit, at the moment Gold is at $1279 and falling, after hitting $1293 earlier today. But I don't see this lasting, Tuesday should hold better I reckon, yet it will be mighty volatile.
Tuesday, very early we have the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting m/m. This will lead to uncertainly within the market, thus I believe the downward trend will continue till after the meeting because investors hate uncertainly as we know. Next we have the Inflation Report Meeting in England with Mr Carney speaking to Parliament. Once again, this causes mad volatility during the meeting and thus movement will be fascinating. Especially after last weeks high inflation levels it escalates the uncertainty during the period. Existing Home Sales in the US are released Tuesday as well, forecast of 5.42m for this month compared to last month's data of 5.39m(Forex Factory, 2017). Implications, well this should help the dollar rebound from last weeks dip. But the political frustrations mean the green back is gaining demand as the instability regarding Brexit continues.
Entering Midweek we see, firstly the UK's Autumn Forecast Statement which is very important for the upcoming Year. As this event only take place once per financial year it can result in huge volatility within the period of the statement taking place, something similar to what can be expected during the 2 meetings taking place on Tuesday. After this there is the release of the US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, with forecast showing a decline from last month at 0.4% is released. While at the same time as this the US Unemployment Claims are released showing a decline from last week, forecast at 241k compared to last weeks release of 249k(Forex Factory, 2017). As these 2 releases are at the same time they might counter each other, yet it just depends how far either drift from the forecast level. Lastly we have the New Zealand Retail Sales q/q. Which is looking far below the previous quarter at 0.4% compared to 2.0%(Forex Factory, 2017), this is a big shift and thus could if hit lead to quite a rise in the NZD/USD market. Which should hopefully result in a late rally Wednesday evening for Gold. Therefore I believe Wednesday could see a bear morning and afternoon and a late surge in the evening.
Thursday there is the Second Estimate GDP q/q, this is the second estimate therefore it doesn't have as much effect as the Preliminary Estimate, yet this estimate is looking the same as the previous and thus we might only see little movement at this time, but unlikely to have more than a few hours worth of fluctuation. In the afternoon there is the Canadian Core Retail Sales m/m, which is important but there is also big potential movements compared to last month. We see a forecast of 0.9% compared to lasts months result of -0.7%. This may lead to a strong positive movement for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar and thus a nice little upward rally for the yellow metal.
Lastly we come to Friday, yet we see little data release which might actually affect the direction of Gold. Thus I believe Friday could be the day most influenced by geopolitical factors, Golds direction this week I feel should continue upwards but might not recover to what we saw on Friday, as today saw a strong downward movement. Gold fell 1.5% and this is big, yet because of the constant political tensions escalating throughout the world it could help move Gold above $1300 hopefully. However as always we know data release is never perfect and thus one or two big dips in actual results on one day might direct the whole week.
The Naive Trader.
This week isn't too busy, Monday's movement at the moment is very jittery, seeming to be based on uncertainly about what is going to be happening to the US corporation tax change that Mr Trump is trying to implement. Trading today is looking pretty hard, Gold is falling slowly due to the rally that the dollar is experiencing against the Yen, thus making it difficult to decide where to sit, at the moment Gold is at $1279 and falling, after hitting $1293 earlier today. But I don't see this lasting, Tuesday should hold better I reckon, yet it will be mighty volatile.
Tuesday, very early we have the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting m/m. This will lead to uncertainly within the market, thus I believe the downward trend will continue till after the meeting because investors hate uncertainly as we know. Next we have the Inflation Report Meeting in England with Mr Carney speaking to Parliament. Once again, this causes mad volatility during the meeting and thus movement will be fascinating. Especially after last weeks high inflation levels it escalates the uncertainty during the period. Existing Home Sales in the US are released Tuesday as well, forecast of 5.42m for this month compared to last month's data of 5.39m(Forex Factory, 2017). Implications, well this should help the dollar rebound from last weeks dip. But the political frustrations mean the green back is gaining demand as the instability regarding Brexit continues.
Entering Midweek we see, firstly the UK's Autumn Forecast Statement which is very important for the upcoming Year. As this event only take place once per financial year it can result in huge volatility within the period of the statement taking place, something similar to what can be expected during the 2 meetings taking place on Tuesday. After this there is the release of the US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, with forecast showing a decline from last month at 0.4% is released. While at the same time as this the US Unemployment Claims are released showing a decline from last week, forecast at 241k compared to last weeks release of 249k(Forex Factory, 2017). As these 2 releases are at the same time they might counter each other, yet it just depends how far either drift from the forecast level. Lastly we have the New Zealand Retail Sales q/q. Which is looking far below the previous quarter at 0.4% compared to 2.0%(Forex Factory, 2017), this is a big shift and thus could if hit lead to quite a rise in the NZD/USD market. Which should hopefully result in a late rally Wednesday evening for Gold. Therefore I believe Wednesday could see a bear morning and afternoon and a late surge in the evening.
Thursday there is the Second Estimate GDP q/q, this is the second estimate therefore it doesn't have as much effect as the Preliminary Estimate, yet this estimate is looking the same as the previous and thus we might only see little movement at this time, but unlikely to have more than a few hours worth of fluctuation. In the afternoon there is the Canadian Core Retail Sales m/m, which is important but there is also big potential movements compared to last month. We see a forecast of 0.9% compared to lasts months result of -0.7%. This may lead to a strong positive movement for the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar and thus a nice little upward rally for the yellow metal.
Lastly we come to Friday, yet we see little data release which might actually affect the direction of Gold. Thus I believe Friday could be the day most influenced by geopolitical factors, Golds direction this week I feel should continue upwards but might not recover to what we saw on Friday, as today saw a strong downward movement. Gold fell 1.5% and this is big, yet because of the constant political tensions escalating throughout the world it could help move Gold above $1300 hopefully. However as always we know data release is never perfect and thus one or two big dips in actual results on one day might direct the whole week.
The Naive Trader.
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