Friday Madness
This week has been pretty crazy, the markets have been bouncing around so much, Gold neither holding a bear or bull trend as each day has had such strong data releases it has meant each day has seen such unpredictable movement.
Monday saw the release of the US Core PCE Price Index m/m which hit forecast of 0.1% while the Personal Spending m/m was above forecast at 1.0%. But we did see a strong rally for Gold, up from 1269.41 to 1278.07 in the mid afternoon before closing just a bit below.
Tuesday saw a strong slide back to a level just below Mondays base, in part because of strong data released from the US with the Employment cost Index quarterly result hitting forecast and the CB consumer Confidence being nicely above forecast. These results helped edge the dollar up against majors such as the JPY, and therefore pushed Gold Spot rate back down, hitting 1268.86 before rallying back up to 1272 before close. At this point I hoped this would lead to a continued bear movement for the rest of the week but I was mighty wrong.
Wednesday and Thursday were hectic days, numerous strong releases resulting in a strong bull rally for Gold. Such releases as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change monthly, which was strongly positive, above forecast by 33k at 235k(Forex Factory, 2017). The ISM Manufacturing PMI release was below forecast which caused a short dip before Construction Spending m/m was above, at 0.3% compared to the forecast of -0.1%, further shifting up the position of the Gold position. Furthermore, the ISM Manufacturing Prices were released, again furthering the upward movement of Gold, hitting a high of 1278 in mid afternoon. So this wasn't too good for my Gold position, as this seemed like a very strong rally and therefore I was worried this could continue till Friday.
Finally the hit of forecast of the Federal Funds Rate, holding constant at 1.25% left security in the market and thus further shifted the Gold position.
Thursday saw a very important release from the Bank of England with Mark Carney deciding to up interest rates for the first time in 10 years, hitting the forecast of 0.5%(Investing.com, 2017). This helped shift the value of Gold up further as the cable up-shifted because of the change in interest rate, hitting a week high of $1281. However this position was luckily reduced because of the weekly US unemployment claims being below forecast at 229k and also the Prelim Non-Farm Productivity being above forecast by 0.5% at 3%. This therefore meant Gold closed on Thursday at 1278$ but still completely opposite to what I thought.
But Friday what I have just seen was incredible, after the open of the US market, Gold has just dropped like nothing before. Which is so frustrating considering I closed my position yesterday because I didn't believe Gold would go back down. But Gold has just dipped madly, falling from $1278 all the way to $1266.56 in a couple of minutes. But I believe this is a blip, so if you are to hold a buy position I would recommend getting in there now. I was going to talk about all the releases today but only the Unemployment Rate really interests me tbh as this dip is just incredible. The US unemployment rate was released today and it was just above forecast at 4.2%. Which is very similar, what is now interesting is how much lower this will actually go, I don't know. But such low figures highlight potential of continued Growth in the US economy.
After looking at this week so far, I ended up actually being correct, Gold is currently sitting at a lower position than it opened Monday, which would show a bear trend. But I don't really believe this, the week was way to turbulent and the shift has been very small its just this huge dip, which was indeed huge I may say. I will update on Sunday what I see as interesting for the week ahead.
Regards,
The Naive Trader.
Monday saw the release of the US Core PCE Price Index m/m which hit forecast of 0.1% while the Personal Spending m/m was above forecast at 1.0%. But we did see a strong rally for Gold, up from 1269.41 to 1278.07 in the mid afternoon before closing just a bit below.
Tuesday saw a strong slide back to a level just below Mondays base, in part because of strong data released from the US with the Employment cost Index quarterly result hitting forecast and the CB consumer Confidence being nicely above forecast. These results helped edge the dollar up against majors such as the JPY, and therefore pushed Gold Spot rate back down, hitting 1268.86 before rallying back up to 1272 before close. At this point I hoped this would lead to a continued bear movement for the rest of the week but I was mighty wrong.
Wednesday and Thursday were hectic days, numerous strong releases resulting in a strong bull rally for Gold. Such releases as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change monthly, which was strongly positive, above forecast by 33k at 235k(Forex Factory, 2017). The ISM Manufacturing PMI release was below forecast which caused a short dip before Construction Spending m/m was above, at 0.3% compared to the forecast of -0.1%, further shifting up the position of the Gold position. Furthermore, the ISM Manufacturing Prices were released, again furthering the upward movement of Gold, hitting a high of 1278 in mid afternoon. So this wasn't too good for my Gold position, as this seemed like a very strong rally and therefore I was worried this could continue till Friday.
Finally the hit of forecast of the Federal Funds Rate, holding constant at 1.25% left security in the market and thus further shifted the Gold position.
Thursday saw a very important release from the Bank of England with Mark Carney deciding to up interest rates for the first time in 10 years, hitting the forecast of 0.5%(Investing.com, 2017). This helped shift the value of Gold up further as the cable up-shifted because of the change in interest rate, hitting a week high of $1281. However this position was luckily reduced because of the weekly US unemployment claims being below forecast at 229k and also the Prelim Non-Farm Productivity being above forecast by 0.5% at 3%. This therefore meant Gold closed on Thursday at 1278$ but still completely opposite to what I thought.
But Friday what I have just seen was incredible, after the open of the US market, Gold has just dropped like nothing before. Which is so frustrating considering I closed my position yesterday because I didn't believe Gold would go back down. But Gold has just dipped madly, falling from $1278 all the way to $1266.56 in a couple of minutes. But I believe this is a blip, so if you are to hold a buy position I would recommend getting in there now. I was going to talk about all the releases today but only the Unemployment Rate really interests me tbh as this dip is just incredible. The US unemployment rate was released today and it was just above forecast at 4.2%. Which is very similar, what is now interesting is how much lower this will actually go, I don't know. But such low figures highlight potential of continued Growth in the US economy.
After looking at this week so far, I ended up actually being correct, Gold is currently sitting at a lower position than it opened Monday, which would show a bear trend. But I don't really believe this, the week was way to turbulent and the shift has been very small its just this huge dip, which was indeed huge I may say. I will update on Sunday what I see as interesting for the week ahead.
Regards,
The Naive Trader.
Comments
Post a Comment