Busy
This week ahead has started off fairly well for Gold, I am not surprised, after the weird tweets from Trump and the confusion at to what was actually achieved on his Asian Trip its easy to see people moving towards the Precious Metal as the week develops with constant instability between specific nations.
Monday I decided to just pick out the US Federal Budget Balance m/m as something to watch. Its showing a -58.2bn deficit forecast compared to last months 8.0bn surplus. This does seem pretty mad, such a huge change. However its not that important so I don't believe it will much effect on the market. I reckon Monday will continue on an upwards rally, hopefully closing above 1280$, which is very possible.
For the UK, Tuesday is very busy. 6 fairly influential data results are released at the same time, specifically CPI y/y which is looking above previous by .1% at 3.1%. All of the 6 data releases are showing above previous periods Forecasts which is honestly quite impressive. If these are met it could help cable move off 1.30, more towards 1.32 if met. This should help continue a bullish trend for Gold but I don't know how strong it will be as the Cable is of huge importance to the direction of Gold compared to other majors. While later in the day US release their PPI m/m and forecast is showing a below previous month of 0.4% at 0.1%. This is quite an influential piece of data and thus should help continue the bull trend as we might see the Dollar start to dip against other majors.
Wednesday is looking busy for the US, with 5 data released and 4 of them are very important. We shall see the CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and finally the Empire State Manufacturing Index which isn't looking as important as the other 4. However 4 of the 5 are showing forecasts below previous periods, which is quite surprising really, this could lead to a dip in the dollar against other majors, thus continuing to shift up Gold hopefully. This should mean we are seeing a strong week for bull traders which could be further developed by the constant geopolitical issues.
I am just going to be looking at Unemployment Claims for the US weekly on Thursday, which is expected to be 236k compared to last weeks result of 239k. This might lead to a dip for Gold on Thursday and this always has a strong effect on the USD/JPY which knocks onto the price of gold quite heavily and therefore maybe Thursday will see a bear shift, shall be interesting.
Finally, to finish off the week, we have US building Permits m/m results, Forecast is 1.25m compared to last moths 1.23m. Which could be quite influential in the US currency market. It should result in a further upward shift against other majors yet it always depends how close actual is to the forecast. But it should mean Gold will trend downwards for a period on Friday however for how long that period hold just depends on what data we are seeing.
This week seems fairly turbulent, with numerous important data releases taking place throughout the week it will be fascinating to follow what direction Gold heads for. I hope it continues back on a Bull trend, as it seems very possible because of a lot of Geopolitical issues working in favour of this even if data doesn't help it. And therefore we shall see what happens.
The Naive Trader.
Monday I decided to just pick out the US Federal Budget Balance m/m as something to watch. Its showing a -58.2bn deficit forecast compared to last months 8.0bn surplus. This does seem pretty mad, such a huge change. However its not that important so I don't believe it will much effect on the market. I reckon Monday will continue on an upwards rally, hopefully closing above 1280$, which is very possible.
For the UK, Tuesday is very busy. 6 fairly influential data results are released at the same time, specifically CPI y/y which is looking above previous by .1% at 3.1%. All of the 6 data releases are showing above previous periods Forecasts which is honestly quite impressive. If these are met it could help cable move off 1.30, more towards 1.32 if met. This should help continue a bullish trend for Gold but I don't know how strong it will be as the Cable is of huge importance to the direction of Gold compared to other majors. While later in the day US release their PPI m/m and forecast is showing a below previous month of 0.4% at 0.1%. This is quite an influential piece of data and thus should help continue the bull trend as we might see the Dollar start to dip against other majors.
Wednesday is looking busy for the US, with 5 data released and 4 of them are very important. We shall see the CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and finally the Empire State Manufacturing Index which isn't looking as important as the other 4. However 4 of the 5 are showing forecasts below previous periods, which is quite surprising really, this could lead to a dip in the dollar against other majors, thus continuing to shift up Gold hopefully. This should mean we are seeing a strong week for bull traders which could be further developed by the constant geopolitical issues.
I am just going to be looking at Unemployment Claims for the US weekly on Thursday, which is expected to be 236k compared to last weeks result of 239k. This might lead to a dip for Gold on Thursday and this always has a strong effect on the USD/JPY which knocks onto the price of gold quite heavily and therefore maybe Thursday will see a bear shift, shall be interesting.
Finally, to finish off the week, we have US building Permits m/m results, Forecast is 1.25m compared to last moths 1.23m. Which could be quite influential in the US currency market. It should result in a further upward shift against other majors yet it always depends how close actual is to the forecast. But it should mean Gold will trend downwards for a period on Friday however for how long that period hold just depends on what data we are seeing.
This week seems fairly turbulent, with numerous important data releases taking place throughout the week it will be fascinating to follow what direction Gold heads for. I hope it continues back on a Bull trend, as it seems very possible because of a lot of Geopolitical issues working in favour of this even if data doesn't help it. And therefore we shall see what happens.
The Naive Trader.
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