Nice & Relaxing
The week ahead is looking surprisingly quiet considering the hectic schedule we have been witnessing for the past month or so which I guess makes a nice change and in theory means it will be a more straight forward week.
For Monday within the US market there is nothing too spectacular but New Zealand are releasing their quarterly Inflation Expectation, if this figure is strong it will help positively influence the exchange rate in favour of the NZL against other majors. Furthermore Canada shall be explaining their Ivy PMI, this surveys a set amount of business leaders where questions are asked about their opinion on economic conditions etc and thus is very important when understanding how strong the economic sector is. Forecast is expected to be positive, above the base of the index thus highlighting growth but also it is looking to be above last months result of 59.6. These pieces of data could help dip the Dollar on Monday and could cause a nice little positive rally in the Gold Spot market on Monday.
Tuesday is offering a similar amount of data release, firstly we have the Halifax HPI m/m which focuses on the change in the price of homes. It looks interesting because the forecast is at 0.2%, which is 0.6% below last months result of 0.8%(Forex Factory, 2017). This is pretty drastic, and thus is of interest because of the implications it could have on the cable which would in-turn effect Mr Gold. Next we have Draghi speaking, as always I won't be commenting on this because I haven't researched what he will be saying but it could be very damaging to the market, same goes for the US where Yellen speaks in the afternoon, good luck if your following it!! And to the finish the day off we have the US Consumer Credit m/m, this is offering quite a big change, thus I thought it was worth looking into, like the Halifax HPI this forecast is positive compared to last month an therefore if hit it will damage the cable as well. Which could mean we might see the continued bear market of the last few weeks in Gold continue.
The third day of this week is looking a little bit less stressful. Firstly we have China releasing their Trade Balance which is looking very strongly above previous recordings, with a surplus of 275bn which is huge, almost a 100bn more than the last release. This could be interesting for Gold. I haven't come across this before while writing so I am not sure about the implications on Gold, so any help or better understanding is always appreciated. After this Canada is releasing their Housing Starts and Building Permits, showing a growth and decline respectively, this might cause some turbulence in them market around release time but because of the lack of big forecasted movement in comparison to previous results I see little effect on Wednesday on Golds position, who knows???
Whey, you have made it through most of the article, congrats fam. Thursday is now here, which is offering alot of CNY data, but I lack sufficient knowledge of China's effects on the markets so I will have to learn from Thursday and explain what I saw when I reflect, later in the week. However, our most consistently exciting piece of data is released on a Thursday, this is the US Weekly Unemployment Claims. This weeks is showing a slight increase of 2k, up to 231k. Which isn't much but anything below this could honestly cause quite a shift in the cable or other majors. Thursday might see a strong bear rally in the Gold market after a few disappointing results.
Friday, last but not least, again only 2 fairly small things taking place. Great Britain are releasing their Manufacturing Production m/m results, forecast is only a 0.1% decrease from last month, really quite small. While later we get the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which is showing an increase and it is above the flat index, highlighting growth in the economy. This could mean on Friday, Gold will also experience a downward trend, as strong US releases and week GB releases continue to damage the cable position.
This week is quite hard as its not too busy and therefore we might actually see very little change in the Gold market. However nothing this week highlights much enthusiasm towards helping shift Gold away from this bear trend, thus Shorting Gold for another week seems to be where the money is.
Peace out,
The Naive Trader.
For Monday within the US market there is nothing too spectacular but New Zealand are releasing their quarterly Inflation Expectation, if this figure is strong it will help positively influence the exchange rate in favour of the NZL against other majors. Furthermore Canada shall be explaining their Ivy PMI, this surveys a set amount of business leaders where questions are asked about their opinion on economic conditions etc and thus is very important when understanding how strong the economic sector is. Forecast is expected to be positive, above the base of the index thus highlighting growth but also it is looking to be above last months result of 59.6. These pieces of data could help dip the Dollar on Monday and could cause a nice little positive rally in the Gold Spot market on Monday.
Tuesday is offering a similar amount of data release, firstly we have the Halifax HPI m/m which focuses on the change in the price of homes. It looks interesting because the forecast is at 0.2%, which is 0.6% below last months result of 0.8%(Forex Factory, 2017). This is pretty drastic, and thus is of interest because of the implications it could have on the cable which would in-turn effect Mr Gold. Next we have Draghi speaking, as always I won't be commenting on this because I haven't researched what he will be saying but it could be very damaging to the market, same goes for the US where Yellen speaks in the afternoon, good luck if your following it!! And to the finish the day off we have the US Consumer Credit m/m, this is offering quite a big change, thus I thought it was worth looking into, like the Halifax HPI this forecast is positive compared to last month an therefore if hit it will damage the cable as well. Which could mean we might see the continued bear market of the last few weeks in Gold continue.
The third day of this week is looking a little bit less stressful. Firstly we have China releasing their Trade Balance which is looking very strongly above previous recordings, with a surplus of 275bn which is huge, almost a 100bn more than the last release. This could be interesting for Gold. I haven't come across this before while writing so I am not sure about the implications on Gold, so any help or better understanding is always appreciated. After this Canada is releasing their Housing Starts and Building Permits, showing a growth and decline respectively, this might cause some turbulence in them market around release time but because of the lack of big forecasted movement in comparison to previous results I see little effect on Wednesday on Golds position, who knows???
Whey, you have made it through most of the article, congrats fam. Thursday is now here, which is offering alot of CNY data, but I lack sufficient knowledge of China's effects on the markets so I will have to learn from Thursday and explain what I saw when I reflect, later in the week. However, our most consistently exciting piece of data is released on a Thursday, this is the US Weekly Unemployment Claims. This weeks is showing a slight increase of 2k, up to 231k. Which isn't much but anything below this could honestly cause quite a shift in the cable or other majors. Thursday might see a strong bear rally in the Gold market after a few disappointing results.
Friday, last but not least, again only 2 fairly small things taking place. Great Britain are releasing their Manufacturing Production m/m results, forecast is only a 0.1% decrease from last month, really quite small. While later we get the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment which is showing an increase and it is above the flat index, highlighting growth in the economy. This could mean on Friday, Gold will also experience a downward trend, as strong US releases and week GB releases continue to damage the cable position.
This week is quite hard as its not too busy and therefore we might actually see very little change in the Gold market. However nothing this week highlights much enthusiasm towards helping shift Gold away from this bear trend, thus Shorting Gold for another week seems to be where the money is.
Peace out,
The Naive Trader.
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