THE NAIVE TRADER

Thursday we have two important early morning data releases, thus I won't be able to actually see it but I am interested to see what happens. First we have New Zealands ANZ Business Confidence, which just breaks down the level of confidence businesses have within the economy. Last month showed a very negative outlook with the result being -10.1, showing belief of a negative direction within the economy. So depending on how this and the Australian Private Capital Expenditure results look, which comes out an hour after we might see gains in Gold. The AUD data is looking positive, forecast showing growth from last quarter. So maybe after Wednesday potentially negative day this might help push Gold up again into a Bull trend.  Later on we have the European CPI Flash Estimate yearly result. which is looking slightly above the previous year with forecast of 1.6%, 0.2% above last year(Forex Factory, 2017). This might put downward pressure on the dollar, helping continue the trend we might...

Friday after Thanksgiving was lacking action, something I was very surprised about as I believed the data releases on Thursday would result on a knock-on effect for Friday. Yet I was wrong, the movement experienced was lacking excitement, closing at $1288 after opening at $1291. So the week was fairly volatile yet there was neither a strong Bull or Bear throughout the week with the close being close to what was seen on Monday. But this does lead to potential excitement for the week ahead. The week starting 27th November is looking busy. Monday's focus is on the US New Homes Sales and the New York Fed President speaks. Previous results for home sales show potential wide fluctuations and thus if the forecast of 627k(Forex Factory, 2017) isn't met, which is down from last month. It may help continue to shift golds upward movement. So far today Gold is rallying strong, which is very exciting. Neither one of these two events are hugely significant so it might mean the effect on G...

This week so far has been very positive for Bull Traders, after last weeks pretty depressing decline I feel like this Bull trend will continue into next week hopefully. Monday was pretty unexciting to be honest, nothing very extravagant in regards to actual data release  but we saw big movement in the price of Gold. The yellow metal fell from a high of just over $1291 to $1276, before holding and then closing just under $1280. There was uncertainly in regards to US tax reforms which led to a strong rally in Monday afternoon for the USD/JPY, and thus Gold went the opposite way, nothing really else explains the odd movement. Mondays from my (lack of) experience seem to always be very volatile, and thus predicting the markets movement on that day does always seem to baffle me for the moment! Anyway, onward and upwards, Tuesday was interesting, the morning made it look as though Gold was going to boost back up. The Monthly Australian Monetary Policy took place in the early hours of...

Friday should of been a damaging day for Gold, US Building Permits result being above Forecast at 1.30m compared to forecast of 1.25m(Forex Factory, 2017). This normally, ceterius paribus, should mean Gold dips as the Dollar upshifts. However Friday offered good news for bullish traders in Gold, North Korea refusing to negotiate about their Nuclear Weapons and just the madness in Zimbabwe helped Gold continue up to $1296 per troy ounce before slowing and closing on Friday just above $1290. Pretty sweet week in my opinion, showing nothing is really slowing Gold long-term. This week isn't too busy, Monday's movement at the moment is very jittery, seeming to be based on uncertainly about what is going to be happening to the US corporation tax change that Mr Trump is trying to implement. Trading today is looking pretty hard, Gold is falling slowly due to the rally that the dollar is experiencing against the Yen, thus making it difficult to decide where to sit, at the moment Gold ...

Monday and Tuesday have been interesting to say the least, more Tuesday to be honest. Monday with the release of the US Federal Budget, which didn't do much for the direction. The actual was above expected but normally these results fluctuate so the implications weren't massive. Gold however did continue to continue its rally upwards, due to political discussions in Asia, such as Japan. But the extent to which Gold rallied was less than I expected, I believed it would hit $1280 by the end of Monday yet it peaked just below, floating around the $1279 region before closing lower which was frustrating. Tuesday was pretty mad, that is more why I am writing this article today. Draghi, Yellen, Carney and numerous other central all met to discuss each countries economic results etc. It was fucking insane, because of such outcomes as British inflation being below forecast at 3.0% which I stated was one of a few big data releases from the UK, while the other releases from the UK were...

This week ahead has started off fairly well for Gold, I am not surprised, after the weird tweets from Trump and the confusion at to what was actually achieved on his Asian Trip its easy to see people moving towards the Precious Metal as the week develops with constant instability between specific nations. Monday I decided to just pick out the US Federal Budget Balance m/m as something to watch. Its showing a -58.2bn deficit forecast compared to last months 8.0bn surplus. This does seem pretty mad, such a huge change. However its not that important so I don't believe it will much effect on the market. I reckon Monday will continue on an upwards rally, hopefully closing above 1280$, which is very possible. For the UK, Tuesday is very busy. 6 fairly influential data results are released at the same time, specifically CPI y/y which is looking above previous by .1% at 3.1%. All of the 6 data releases are showing above previous periods Forecasts which is honestly quite impressive. If...

Thursday and Friday of last week didn't have that much release of interest however there was huge movement. Thursday saw the weekly US unemployment Claims data, which was above forecast by 7k at 239k, this was quite surprising and didn't do anything to drastic to Gold but did help continue the Bullish trend I believed would hold for Thursday and Friday. Levels of 1288$ against the dollar were met near Thursday close and thus I reckoned this could help continue the shift upwards. But I was pretty wrong.  Friday saw a strong downward trend, kinda destroying all the rally that had been taking place for the last few days. Britain's Manufacturing Production m/m was above forecast at 0.7% compared to 0.3% expected while US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment was below forecast, showing a decline in growth, with actual being 97.8 compared to 100.8 for forecast(Forex Factory, 2017). This helped shift the cable up however the main factor which caused about a $10 dip in price was from th...

I thought I would do an update of whats happened so far this week. I must say that I was right in regards to the direction on Monday and Tuesday for Gold prices which is pretty cool. Monday saw the release of the the New Zealand Inflation Expectation quarterly which was just under forecast at 2.0%. While Mr Draghi spoke and the Canadian Ivy PMI was released, with the figure being fairly strongly above forecast at 63.8 compared to forecast of 60.2(Forex Factory, 2017), which highlights the constant growth in the Canadian economy. This will have helped dip the Dollar a little however the main factor causing Gold to rally was once again not related to the data release but the political corruption scandals in Saudi Arabia. Where '11 princes and dozens of bureaucrats stand accused of corruption'(Bloomberg, 2017). This causes instability in markets and thus investors move into the 'safe haven' of Gold while the purging is sorted. This purging helped shift Gold up fairly hea...

The week ahead is looking surprisingly quiet considering the hectic schedule we have been witnessing for the past month or so which I guess makes a nice change and in theory means it will be a more straight forward week. For Monday within the US market there is nothing too spectacular but New Zealand are releasing their quarterly Inflation Expectation, if this figure is strong it will help positively influence the exchange rate in favour of the NZL against other majors. Furthermore Canada shall be explaining their Ivy PMI, this surveys a set amount of business leaders where questions are asked about their opinion on economic conditions etc and thus is very important when understanding how strong the economic sector is. Forecast is expected to be positive, above the base of the index thus highlighting growth but also it is looking to be above last months result of 59.6. These pieces of data could help dip the Dollar on Monday and could cause a nice little positive rally in the Gold Sp...

This week has been pretty crazy, the markets have been bouncing around so much, Gold neither holding a bear or bull trend as each day has had such strong data releases it has meant each day has seen such unpredictable movement. Monday saw the release of the US Core PCE Price Index m/m which hit forecast of 0.1% while the Personal Spending m/m was above forecast at 1.0%. But we did see a strong rally for Gold, up from 1269.41 to 1278.07 in the mid afternoon before closing just a bit below. Tuesday saw a strong slide back to a level just below Mondays base, in part because of strong data released from the US with the Employment cost Index quarterly result hitting forecast and the CB consumer Confidence being nicely above forecast. These results helped edge the dollar up against majors such as the JPY, and therefore pushed Gold Spot rate back down, hitting 1268.86 before rallying back up to 1272 before close. At this point I hoped this would lead to a continued bear movement for the r...