The Week Ahead: 9th - 13th April.
Monday's open is looking pretty anti-dramatic, with numerous releases but only a couple worth watching. We have the UK's Halifax HPI m/m result, which is forecast to be a small dip from last month, yet I doubt there will be much movement witnessed in the forex markets as a direct result of this. Later the Canadian Outlook Business Survey, this should be approached carefully as this can directly influence the US Dollar if much uncertainty is created because of unexpected results.
We have one potential big mover on Tuesday, with the US's PPI m/m results, which is forecast to have a 0.1% decline from last month. This might cause some movement for Gold, I expect maybe a quick rise of $2-$5 once released but this does depend how much actual varies from the forecast. At the same time the US are releasing their Core PPI m/m, doubt it will influence markets at all, a small change in the US/JPY at max.
Wednesday is a busier day with three significant events and numerous smaller ones worth watching. We have the US's CPI and Core CPI in the early afternoon, we could see a regain for Gold here as CPI is expected to come in under last month with 0.0%. While Core CPI is forecast to hold at the same as last month. Maybe Gold could see a $10 day with underwhelming results in the US. Later on, in the evening we have the US's Feds Meeting Minutes, this will give hints about where the Reserve see Interest Rates going. So if something surprising comes up we might see a volatile evening for the precious metal. Worth watching for Wednesday will be the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m results and the Australian Bank Governer Lowe speaking.
Thursday is another day scattered with numerous releases yet nothing huge. We have the BOJ's Governor speaking in the early morning, where hints about potential interest rate changes are discussed as well as monetary policy changes. So it could see some strong fluctuations in the US/JPY market but should have minimal consequence on Golds movement for the day. Later we have the US's weekly Unemployment Claims, showing a forecast of a 10k decline, which should cause some market movement if seen. Also worth watching with be the EUR's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts which much like the BOJ's Governor will lead to some volatility but directional change I feel should be limited.
Friday is looking like a quiet day in regards to releases in general. We have nothing huge coming out yet there are a couple of events that are worth watching. There is China's Trade Balance m/m results, which is showing a big dip from last month, but still such a strong surplus which is pretty damn incredible. Later on Friday we have the US's Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast is showing a small dip from last month yet still holding just above the index value. I doubt this will do too much to the Gold market but China's releases can be deceptively effective, so I will be watching this closely.
This week is looking hard, I do feel Gold is starting to retreat now as the Dollar regains its long-term bear. But I do feel the issue is whether we have enough releases to result in strong directional change. This put with the fluctuating tensions between the US, Korea and China make every week fascinating and just insane.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018.
Investing.com, 2018.
We have one potential big mover on Tuesday, with the US's PPI m/m results, which is forecast to have a 0.1% decline from last month. This might cause some movement for Gold, I expect maybe a quick rise of $2-$5 once released but this does depend how much actual varies from the forecast. At the same time the US are releasing their Core PPI m/m, doubt it will influence markets at all, a small change in the US/JPY at max.
Wednesday is a busier day with three significant events and numerous smaller ones worth watching. We have the US's CPI and Core CPI in the early afternoon, we could see a regain for Gold here as CPI is expected to come in under last month with 0.0%. While Core CPI is forecast to hold at the same as last month. Maybe Gold could see a $10 day with underwhelming results in the US. Later on, in the evening we have the US's Feds Meeting Minutes, this will give hints about where the Reserve see Interest Rates going. So if something surprising comes up we might see a volatile evening for the precious metal. Worth watching for Wednesday will be the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m results and the Australian Bank Governer Lowe speaking.
Thursday is another day scattered with numerous releases yet nothing huge. We have the BOJ's Governor speaking in the early morning, where hints about potential interest rate changes are discussed as well as monetary policy changes. So it could see some strong fluctuations in the US/JPY market but should have minimal consequence on Golds movement for the day. Later we have the US's weekly Unemployment Claims, showing a forecast of a 10k decline, which should cause some market movement if seen. Also worth watching with be the EUR's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts which much like the BOJ's Governor will lead to some volatility but directional change I feel should be limited.
Friday is looking like a quiet day in regards to releases in general. We have nothing huge coming out yet there are a couple of events that are worth watching. There is China's Trade Balance m/m results, which is showing a big dip from last month, but still such a strong surplus which is pretty damn incredible. Later on Friday we have the US's Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast is showing a small dip from last month yet still holding just above the index value. I doubt this will do too much to the Gold market but China's releases can be deceptively effective, so I will be watching this closely.
This week is looking hard, I do feel Gold is starting to retreat now as the Dollar regains its long-term bear. But I do feel the issue is whether we have enough releases to result in strong directional change. This put with the fluctuating tensions between the US, Korea and China make every week fascinating and just insane.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018.
Investing.com, 2018.
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