The Week Ahead: 16th - 20th April.
These geo-political tensions are creating such tension throughout markets during the last couple of weeks and it doesn't look to be slowing. Yet we do have a busy week for releases so maybe events not related to Trumps tweets could influence the markets this week!
Monday is surprisingly looking busier than usual, we have two substantial releases from the US. These are their Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. Both are forecast to be positive with Retails Sales looking to be 0.5% above last month. So theoretically this should help further up-shift the Dollar on Monday, but I don't know because over the weekend political tensions have been rising and markets haven't had time to react as they have been closed. Thus, Monday could be a time of strong volatility as markets try to re-adjust, which should push the precious metal higher, maybe back above the $1360 and potentially even further?
Tuesday is another busy day for releases in the US, with one big release and numerous others worth watching throughout the afternoon. The amount of releases will create fairly severe volatility I do believe, the main release is their Building Permits. This is forecast to be 300k above last month and this change is substantial which should help aid any dollar growth throughout the day. We also have their Housing Starts which is forecast to be 1.27m, this is strongly above last month and could create further volatility in the market. Then throughout the rest of the day it is scattered with releases from the US worth watching, so as stated earlier, volatility is basically certain. Another event I almost forgot was the Chinese quarterly GDP result, expected to be the same as last quarter with a lot of growth and will of course further influence the volatility throughout the day.
On Wednesday we have a quieter day with nothing huge for the yellow metal, but a few events that will be worth watching throughout the day. We have the UK's CPI yearly result, which is forecast to be the exact same as last year at 2.7%. But the cable is never normally too influential on the Gold market so I doubt this will cause much damage unless we see substantial change from the forecast. We have a couple of results from the Bank of Canada, but much like the UK unless substantial fluctuation is seen there will be little influence on the Gold market. This means Wednesday should be fairly quiet unless geo-political tensions continue to rise!
Thursday and Friday are both pretty anti-dramatic, we have numerous events worth watching but nothing I reckon will be of impact on directional change. The US release their Weekly Unemployment Change on Thursday, forecast showing a slight increase but I doubt there will be much effect on the market as a result of this. Also on Thursday we have a couple of Fed Members speaking but I doubt there will be much effect.
I think the first time ever since I have started writing this Friday is looking to be the quietest day of the week. We have a couple Fed members speaking but in terms of releases it is looking quiet! Worth watching will be the Canadian CPI m/m, but I don't expect much effect from this.
That is about it for the week ahead, but I reckon we are going to see some political activity taking hold of directional change once again, Syria is a hot topic with even Mrs May being a jammy lil fucker and getting involved, so change is expected, the precious metal I reckon will continue its long-term upward trend and who knows what level it will hit?
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Investing.com, 2018.
Monday is surprisingly looking busier than usual, we have two substantial releases from the US. These are their Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. Both are forecast to be positive with Retails Sales looking to be 0.5% above last month. So theoretically this should help further up-shift the Dollar on Monday, but I don't know because over the weekend political tensions have been rising and markets haven't had time to react as they have been closed. Thus, Monday could be a time of strong volatility as markets try to re-adjust, which should push the precious metal higher, maybe back above the $1360 and potentially even further?
Tuesday is another busy day for releases in the US, with one big release and numerous others worth watching throughout the afternoon. The amount of releases will create fairly severe volatility I do believe, the main release is their Building Permits. This is forecast to be 300k above last month and this change is substantial which should help aid any dollar growth throughout the day. We also have their Housing Starts which is forecast to be 1.27m, this is strongly above last month and could create further volatility in the market. Then throughout the rest of the day it is scattered with releases from the US worth watching, so as stated earlier, volatility is basically certain. Another event I almost forgot was the Chinese quarterly GDP result, expected to be the same as last quarter with a lot of growth and will of course further influence the volatility throughout the day.
On Wednesday we have a quieter day with nothing huge for the yellow metal, but a few events that will be worth watching throughout the day. We have the UK's CPI yearly result, which is forecast to be the exact same as last year at 2.7%. But the cable is never normally too influential on the Gold market so I doubt this will cause much damage unless we see substantial change from the forecast. We have a couple of results from the Bank of Canada, but much like the UK unless substantial fluctuation is seen there will be little influence on the Gold market. This means Wednesday should be fairly quiet unless geo-political tensions continue to rise!
Thursday and Friday are both pretty anti-dramatic, we have numerous events worth watching but nothing I reckon will be of impact on directional change. The US release their Weekly Unemployment Change on Thursday, forecast showing a slight increase but I doubt there will be much effect on the market as a result of this. Also on Thursday we have a couple of Fed Members speaking but I doubt there will be much effect.
I think the first time ever since I have started writing this Friday is looking to be the quietest day of the week. We have a couple Fed members speaking but in terms of releases it is looking quiet! Worth watching will be the Canadian CPI m/m, but I don't expect much effect from this.
That is about it for the week ahead, but I reckon we are going to see some political activity taking hold of directional change once again, Syria is a hot topic with even Mrs May being a jammy lil fucker and getting involved, so change is expected, the precious metal I reckon will continue its long-term upward trend and who knows what level it will hit?
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Investing.com, 2018.
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