The Week Ahead: 2nd - 6th April. Directional Change #money.
This week does actually open Monday, I originally assumed all countries were on a bank holiday, but the capitalists never stop so the US market is open. Lets have a look and see where the potential market opportunities lie!
Monday, we just have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expecting a small decline from last month yet still showing growth. This could be a big factor is directional change in Mondays market. Worth watching will be the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index, we are expecting growth, with forecast just above the Index holding value. This is quite influential and could further aid any directional change we will see in Gold on Monday.
Tuesday is a busier day, we have numerous releases worth watching, yet there is nothing which I think will lead to substantial directional change for the precious metal. We have the Australian Cash Rate, expected to hold at 1.5%, this will have little influence on forex markets and thus little implications on the Gold market. Later on the UK release their Manufacturing PMI, which is looking to experience a small decline. Neither of these should have much directional influence on the Gold market. But we have the FOMC Member Brainard speaking, which will realistically cause the most sway in the market for Tuesday, maybe a 5$ shift could be witnessed. Yet it probably won't be a crazy day.
So, midweek, and if you have read this far and still wanna know more, fair play, your either a good friend or are actually interested. We have the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast is typically quite rough and we have about a 30k decline from previous month. This is substantial, and we would see a fairly big shift in the Gold market if hit. Later on, on Wednesday we have the US ISM Non-Maufacturing PMI. Forecast is showing a very small dip, and I doubt this would lead to to much of a shift, yet these two releases could result in quite a movement for Gold if actual dipped further than expected.
Thursday is a little bit quieter than Wednesday, as we have no big releases but just a few smaller ones which have the potential to be influential in the forex and commodity markets if actual are surprising. Firstly we have the Australian Trade Balance, expected to show a slight fall but I doubt we will see any influence, maybe a $1 variation in the Gold market but nothing more. Later there is the UK's Service PMI and the Canadian Trade Balance, with neither being too drastic and thus consequences will be limited. Lastly for Thursday we have the US's Unemployment Claims, these always cause a little stimulation and we are expected to have a slight rise and this could be the defining factor for Thursday's directional movement.
Friday is hyped, we got juice scattered within the US. Three influential releases come out at in the early afternoon, we have their: Average Hourly Earning, Non-Farm Employment Change and their Unemployment Rate. The Employment Change is looking drastic, showing the potential of a 110k decline from last month, which could be damaging for Friday's market. If hit, I don't see wjy we can't see anything over a $10 fluctuation during this release period. Later we have the Fed Chair Powell chatting, volatility for sure yet I believe the majority of the directional movement will be done for the week after the earlier releases, yet I could be wrong so pay attention!
This week looks interesting, some big movement could 100% be seen, first time maybe since Christmas Gold could shift, as always, there is money either way if you play it right, be careful and fucking go for what you believe in.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Monday, we just have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expecting a small decline from last month yet still showing growth. This could be a big factor is directional change in Mondays market. Worth watching will be the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index, we are expecting growth, with forecast just above the Index holding value. This is quite influential and could further aid any directional change we will see in Gold on Monday.
Tuesday is a busier day, we have numerous releases worth watching, yet there is nothing which I think will lead to substantial directional change for the precious metal. We have the Australian Cash Rate, expected to hold at 1.5%, this will have little influence on forex markets and thus little implications on the Gold market. Later on the UK release their Manufacturing PMI, which is looking to experience a small decline. Neither of these should have much directional influence on the Gold market. But we have the FOMC Member Brainard speaking, which will realistically cause the most sway in the market for Tuesday, maybe a 5$ shift could be witnessed. Yet it probably won't be a crazy day.
So, midweek, and if you have read this far and still wanna know more, fair play, your either a good friend or are actually interested. We have the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast is typically quite rough and we have about a 30k decline from previous month. This is substantial, and we would see a fairly big shift in the Gold market if hit. Later on, on Wednesday we have the US ISM Non-Maufacturing PMI. Forecast is showing a very small dip, and I doubt this would lead to to much of a shift, yet these two releases could result in quite a movement for Gold if actual dipped further than expected.
Thursday is a little bit quieter than Wednesday, as we have no big releases but just a few smaller ones which have the potential to be influential in the forex and commodity markets if actual are surprising. Firstly we have the Australian Trade Balance, expected to show a slight fall but I doubt we will see any influence, maybe a $1 variation in the Gold market but nothing more. Later there is the UK's Service PMI and the Canadian Trade Balance, with neither being too drastic and thus consequences will be limited. Lastly for Thursday we have the US's Unemployment Claims, these always cause a little stimulation and we are expected to have a slight rise and this could be the defining factor for Thursday's directional movement.
Friday is hyped, we got juice scattered within the US. Three influential releases come out at in the early afternoon, we have their: Average Hourly Earning, Non-Farm Employment Change and their Unemployment Rate. The Employment Change is looking drastic, showing the potential of a 110k decline from last month, which could be damaging for Friday's market. If hit, I don't see wjy we can't see anything over a $10 fluctuation during this release period. Later we have the Fed Chair Powell chatting, volatility for sure yet I believe the majority of the directional movement will be done for the week after the earlier releases, yet I could be wrong so pay attention!
This week looks interesting, some big movement could 100% be seen, first time maybe since Christmas Gold could shift, as always, there is money either way if you play it right, be careful and fucking go for what you believe in.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
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