The Retracting Dollar.

The week has seen quite a volatile change, and as expected a decline in the precious metal as the dollar begins to recover from the long bear position we have been seeing since the start of the year. So lets have a little look at what this week had to offer.

Mondays only worthy watcher in my opinion was the US's ISM Manufacturing PMI, this came in below forecast and actually allowed Gold to stop the dip seen on Thursday of last week. This put extra pressure on the Dollar, forcing it lower and meaning by close Gold was slightly up from open at $1340 by close.

Tuesday showed in my opinion that Gold really has hit a top around the $1340 region. There wasn't anything drastic in regards to releases yet the pressure of the Dollar potentially rebounding as started to stop any further growth. We did have the UK's Manufacturing PMI but as expected actual was very similar to forecast and thus little effect was seen on the Cable market. Throughout Tuesday Gold dipped slowly around $8 before closing at the $1332 mark.

Wednesday was looking precarious but opened well as a result of a retaliation from China on the US's trade tariff put in place against them. This led to the Dollar dipping and Gold regaining further ground, pulling up to $1347 by the early afternoon. Yet the biggest releases from the US were to come, we had their ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which came in well above forecast at 241k which strongly reduced this growth seen in the early period of the Gold market. Also their ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was released, which came in under forecast by around one index point, which cause much negative effects on the market and these together caused quite some shift. We saw Gold dip heavy with the strong positive results from the Employment Change, falling just over $10 dollars, dammmnnnnnnn pretty substantial. This big dip wasn't helped by further progression in the Dollar throughout the afternoon and evening period, causing Gold to dip even more, before closing at $1330.

Thursday actually was quiet for influential releases, we had the the US Unemployment Claims rising significantly, up by around 20k. But the main influence was the declining tension between the US and China which had been previously heating up over the previous days. As a result Gold started to retreat to around $1324 before regaining ground and closing at $1331.

Friday was filled with numerous substantial releases which could really decide how far positive or negative Gold finished the week. We had the US Average Hourly Earnings which came in bang on forecast, then their Non-Farm Employment Change, which was very negative. Coming in well under forecast at 103k. Then lastly in this period, they had the Unemployment Rate result, which was 4.1%, a little above forecast. These 2 results were enough to really hinder the slide from Thursday and Friday morning, with the precious metal rebounding and gaining around $10 before closing at $1333. 

This week was maybe less dipped that originally expected, but Fridays results really did change the weeks directional movement. Yet I see believe we are seeing a top in Gold as the Dollar slowly now turns the screw and begins its retrace.

Peace.

The Naive Trader.

Forex Factory, 2018.

IG.com, 2018.

Investing.com, 2018.