THE NAIVE TRADER

Last week was interesting, Gold continued its retreat from highs earlier this month in the $1360 region. But the decline doesn't look done, we might see a further fall or could this be the holding region before another rally, lets have a look! Monday is not crazy, there are many releases with a few potentially worth watching. The US have their Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending. These both aren't that important but are looking to be the most influential releases that could affect the Gold market on Monday. Maybe, the Chicago PMI might lead to little volatility in the Gold market during the evening period but realistically it will be limited. We have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI Index on Tuesday which could create some movement. The expected shows about a 1 point decline from last month, but this really won't do too much to the market I don't feel. This is because much of the effect will be due to the rally we are seeing in the US Dollar, as it continues and ...

This week has seen a strong decline for Gold, nothing too surprising actually as the US Dollar continues to regain momentum. So lets have a look at some of the main influences on this directional shift. Monday's open is the highest Gold has seen this week, this follows on from the trend that was first seen last week with Gold closing Friday of that week lower than open for the first time in a while. On Monday Gold fell around $8 as the US Dollar began to regain ground amid declining political tensions between the US and North Korea. By close Gold was down to $1325. Tuesday saw a nice little retrace for the precious metal, gaining and hitting the $1330 mark during the middle of the day. What was surprising was how little influence the US CB Consumer Confidence positive result had on the Gold market, it came in over 2 index points above forecast, which is substantial. Yet the reaction from Gold as a consequence was limited and by close Gold was holding steady at the $1330 mark. ...

This week opens on Monday with nothing too substantial. We have the Canadian Governer Poloz speaking in the evening which is worth a watch, I doubt this shall have much consequence on the US Dollar market. Also there is the US Existing Home Sales results which could create some tensions but Monday is looking like a quiet day regardless. Tuesday's main release is the US Consumer Confidence result, this has potential to dip markets powerfully. It is forecast for a small decline from last month but this shouldn't do too much to the markets I reckon. We also have US New Home Sales, showing a slight increase but this really won't have much influence. So like Monday data releases shouldn't do much to market fluctuations unless we do indeed see a big dip. Wednesday is actually even quieter that the previous two! The Governor of the BOC Mr Polov is speaking again which will be worth keeping an eye on but I doubt it will cause much influence on them Gold markets movement. An...

On Monday we focused on the US Core Retail Sales and the Retail Sales which were both very volatile and could of potentially influenced the forex and commodities significantly. The Retail Sales came in quite above expected by 0.4% at 0.6%. This surprisingly didn't effect Gold too heavily with the precious metal actually gaining throughout the day by $4 and closing at $1347. Tuesday saw little directional change throughout the day there were numerous releases which could of caused chaos. Gold did in fact shift yet the change was quickly absorbed as it rebounded to $1 above open at close. The US Building Permits result came in above forecast at 1.35mil yet again this consequence was minimal on the Gold market with continuing tensions surrounding America and everyone else building helping hold the precious metal near recent weeks highs.  By close Gold was holding back at the $1344 mark after a shift of $10 throughout the turbulent day. On Wednesday Gold gained further as the Fed...

These geo-political tensions are creating such tension throughout markets during the last couple of weeks and it doesn't look to be slowing. Yet we do have a busy week for releases so maybe events not related to Trumps tweets could influence the markets this week! Monday is surprisingly looking busier than usual, we have two substantial releases from the US. These are their Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. Both are forecast to be positive with Retails Sales looking to be 0.5% above last month. So theoretically this should help further up-shift the Dollar on Monday, but I don't know because over the weekend political tensions have been rising and markets haven't had time to react as they have been closed. Thus, Monday could be a time of strong volatility as markets try to re-adjust, which should push the precious metal higher, maybe back above the $1360 and potentially even further? Tuesday is another busy day for releases in the US, with one big release and numerous ...

This week has been filled with Geo-Political tensions resulting in huge volatility throughout the week, and making much of the data releases almost irrelevant on certain days as statements made by the main man himself Mr Trump cause chaos. Monday was quiet as expected, there were only two releases worth watching which was the Canadian Business Outlook Survey and the UK's Halifax HPI m/m. The Canadian result had little influence on the market but Halifax's HPI was pretty different, much stronger than expected, coming in at 1.5%. But this really didn't do much too the market, I was actually surprised by this, but it really does show how small an impact the cable actually has on the Gold market. By close on Monday we saw a $3 rise from open, closing at $1336. We did actually have one big event Tuesday, which was the US's PPI m/m and there was also their Core PPI which was worth watching. The PPI came in above forecast by 0.2%, which is high, but because of Mr Trump we ...

Monday's open is looking pretty anti-dramatic, with numerous releases but only a couple worth watching. We have the UK's Halifax HPI m/m result, which is forecast to be a small dip from last month, yet I doubt there will be much movement witnessed in the forex markets as a direct result of this. Later the Canadian Outlook Business Survey, this should be approached carefully as this can directly influence the US Dollar if much uncertainty is created because of unexpected results. We have one potential big mover on Tuesday, with the US's PPI m/m results, which is forecast to have a 0.1% decline from last month. This might cause some movement for Gold, I expect maybe a quick rise of $2-$5 once released but this does depend how much actual varies from the forecast. At the same time the US are releasing their Core PPI m/m, doubt it will influence markets at all, a small change in the US/JPY at max. Wednesday is a busier day with three significant events and numerous smaller ...

The week has seen quite a volatile change, and as expected a decline in the precious metal as the dollar begins to recover from the long bear position we have been seeing since the start of the year. So lets have a little look at what this week had to offer. Mondays only worthy watcher in my opinion was the US's ISM Manufacturing PMI, this came in below forecast and actually allowed Gold to stop the dip seen on Thursday of last week. This put extra pressure on the Dollar, forcing it lower and meaning by close Gold was slightly up from open at $1340 by close. Tuesday showed in my opinion that Gold really has hit a top around the $1340 region. There wasn't anything drastic in regards to releases yet the pressure of the Dollar potentially rebounding as started to stop any further growth. We did have the UK's Manufacturing PMI but as expected actual was very similar to forecast and thus little effect was seen on the Cable market. Throughout Tuesday Gold dipped slowly ar...

This week does actually open Monday, I originally assumed all countries were on a bank holiday, but the capitalists never stop so the US market is open. Lets have a look and see where the potential market opportunities lie! Monday, we just have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expecting a small decline from last month yet still showing growth. This could be a big factor is directional change in Mondays market. Worth watching will be the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index, we are expecting growth, with forecast just above the Index holding value. This is quite influential and could further aid any directional change we will see in Gold on Monday. Tuesday is a busier day, we have numerous releases worth watching, yet there is nothing which I think will lead to substantial directional change for the precious metal. We have the Australian Cash Rate, expected to hold at 1.5%, this will have little influence on forex markets and thus little implications on the Gold market. Later on the UK r...