The Week Ahead: 5th-9th March
As I write this the current Italian Presidential Election is taking place, a very intriguing event from a political perspective. But the consequences on the European markets I don't believe to be too extensive because of Italy's lack of economic power, but I could be completely wrong, lets see what happens!
Anyway, back to what I am meant to talk about, we have of course the weekly breakdown, lets crack on and get straight into it!
Monday's main focus is on the late release coming from the US, which is their ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Forecast is showing a 1 point climb from the last period, this will cause the Dollar to shift and I expect to see a directional change for Gold. We have two events worth watching on Monday, they are: UK's Services PMI and the FOMC member Quarles speaking.
Tuesday is made up of smaller releases, we have five events from the Australian National Reserve throughout the day. I feel the most important will be their Bank Statement, which is taking place early Tuesday, so be careful with those overnight trades! Later we have the BOE's chief Economist Mr Haldane speaking, discussing a range of sectors, such as: Arts and Manufacturing. I don't see much effect from this, we will of course see a volatile period for the cable but knock-on consequences on Gold will be unlikely. Finishing Tuesday we have another FOMC member speaking, Brainard, what a name, never heard of anyone called this before. But effects, this could be the most influential event of the day on the Gold market, so pay fucking attention late Tuesday!
Wednesday has almost two main releases in my opinion, the main one is ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecasting a decline from the previous month of around 40k. A pretty big dip to be honest, could cause some real big shifty shift shifts. But the almost main event, which will create some interesting volatility is the FOMC member Dudley speaking, exciting I know! This is taking place at a very similar time to the ADP, so hold on, it could be a ride and a half for bout 30 minutes surrounding these two events.
Worth watching, we have the Australian GDP and three releases from the Canadian Government, their Bank Statement, like the AUD on Tuesday it could create some substantial shifting of forex's and potentially Gold.
Thursday's main event is the ECB Press Conference, which could see hints at what rates Mr Draghi feels like setting in the near future. I don't see too much market directional change for Gold here but we might see some strong volatility. Other events worth watching will be: US weekly unemployment change where a 6k increase is expected, ECB's Bid Rate and finally the Canadian Central Bank Governor Poloz is speaking.
Friday is looking busy for the US market, we have three important events taking place. Firstly there is the US Average Hourly Earnings which is showing a hold from last month at 0.3%, after we have Non-Farm Employment Change, showing a 4k rise, but this isn't a huge change so we may only see a meagre decline in Gold. Lastly for the US we then have their Unemployment Rate,showing a 0.1% decline, this in contrast is actually a considerable change, I expect this if hit to result in a fairly bigger shift in the US Market and then Gold may start shifting the other way. We also have the BOJ Policy State release, Monetary Policy Statement and a Press Conference. These will be interesting, which will of course lead to movement and volatility but to what level, who knows.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Anyway, back to what I am meant to talk about, we have of course the weekly breakdown, lets crack on and get straight into it!
Monday's main focus is on the late release coming from the US, which is their ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Forecast is showing a 1 point climb from the last period, this will cause the Dollar to shift and I expect to see a directional change for Gold. We have two events worth watching on Monday, they are: UK's Services PMI and the FOMC member Quarles speaking.
Tuesday is made up of smaller releases, we have five events from the Australian National Reserve throughout the day. I feel the most important will be their Bank Statement, which is taking place early Tuesday, so be careful with those overnight trades! Later we have the BOE's chief Economist Mr Haldane speaking, discussing a range of sectors, such as: Arts and Manufacturing. I don't see much effect from this, we will of course see a volatile period for the cable but knock-on consequences on Gold will be unlikely. Finishing Tuesday we have another FOMC member speaking, Brainard, what a name, never heard of anyone called this before. But effects, this could be the most influential event of the day on the Gold market, so pay fucking attention late Tuesday!
Wednesday has almost two main releases in my opinion, the main one is ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecasting a decline from the previous month of around 40k. A pretty big dip to be honest, could cause some real big shifty shift shifts. But the almost main event, which will create some interesting volatility is the FOMC member Dudley speaking, exciting I know! This is taking place at a very similar time to the ADP, so hold on, it could be a ride and a half for bout 30 minutes surrounding these two events.
Worth watching, we have the Australian GDP and three releases from the Canadian Government, their Bank Statement, like the AUD on Tuesday it could create some substantial shifting of forex's and potentially Gold.
Thursday's main event is the ECB Press Conference, which could see hints at what rates Mr Draghi feels like setting in the near future. I don't see too much market directional change for Gold here but we might see some strong volatility. Other events worth watching will be: US weekly unemployment change where a 6k increase is expected, ECB's Bid Rate and finally the Canadian Central Bank Governor Poloz is speaking.
Friday is looking busy for the US market, we have three important events taking place. Firstly there is the US Average Hourly Earnings which is showing a hold from last month at 0.3%, after we have Non-Farm Employment Change, showing a 4k rise, but this isn't a huge change so we may only see a meagre decline in Gold. Lastly for the US we then have their Unemployment Rate,showing a 0.1% decline, this in contrast is actually a considerable change, I expect this if hit to result in a fairly bigger shift in the US Market and then Gold may start shifting the other way. We also have the BOJ Policy State release, Monetary Policy Statement and a Press Conference. These will be interesting, which will of course lead to movement and volatility but to what level, who knows.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
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