The Week Ahead: 19th - 23rd March
This week is opening with the G20 Summit, which is the priority for Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday we do have numerous US releases. This makes me believe we could indeed have a volatile week so lets jump in.
Monday as stated above is completely dominated by the G20 Summit, potential policy ideas and legislation could create a highly volatile day. Apart from that on Monday, there isn't really anything worth mentioning.
Tuesday, again has a main focus on the G20, but we do also have other events worth watching. The UK have their CPI y/y result, forecast it showing a small decline from last year, down to 2.8%. So it is worth keeping an eye on this result, and Tuesday could indeed be another very volatile day.
Wednesday, in regards to movement for the Gold market, is looking like the busiest day of the week. We have four important events. To start it, we have the Federal Reserves Economic Projection report, then their FOMC Statement. Both of these are looking to create some strong volatility for Gold, so it wouldn't be surprising if we saw an $8-$10 movement if an unexpected variable is found.
Then, soon after will be the Fed's Fund Rate, we are forecast to see a 0.25% increase, up to 1.75%. If this is hit, for sure, Gold will dip, but if nothing actually changes this could reverse the slow downward trend we have been witnessing for the last week or so. Just to really fuck the market direction even more, a couple hours later, there is the FOMC Press conference. This is always dangerous for market direction because their is an open Q&A, so if an awkward question is presented we might see unexpected variations in market movement. Apart from these, there isn't really anything else watching as I believe these will completely overwhelm any other results from other nations. So watch out on Wednesday!
Thursday is looking like a quieter day, we don't have any standout releases, yet there are numerous events which will be worth watching. We have the UK's Retail Sales m/m, with a forecast showing a 0.3% increase but I doubt this will do too much for the Gold market to be honest. Also released, is the UK's Monetary Policy Statement and Bank Rate, both can create volatility in the Forex markets, but as the Bank Rate is expected to be stable I reckon this won't lead to any direction change in the Gold market for Thursday. Later on we have the US's Unemployment Claims, these always effect the market, forecast expecting only a very small decline in levels, by 1k. So Thursday is looking like it should be a fairly quiet day, maybe a day range of $10 but I don't see much more unless the US Dollar decides to start rallying again.
Closing the week, we do have one big piece, the US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which is forecast to be 0.8% above previous, which is substantial. If hit I expected a strong retreat for Gold, maybe we might see it down to under $1310 by the afternoon. This put with their Durable Goods Order, showing a forecast of over a 4% increase, is for sure going to do some damage to the Gold market, maybe this week is looking like a short, but who really knows?
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Monday as stated above is completely dominated by the G20 Summit, potential policy ideas and legislation could create a highly volatile day. Apart from that on Monday, there isn't really anything worth mentioning.
Tuesday, again has a main focus on the G20, but we do also have other events worth watching. The UK have their CPI y/y result, forecast it showing a small decline from last year, down to 2.8%. So it is worth keeping an eye on this result, and Tuesday could indeed be another very volatile day.
Wednesday, in regards to movement for the Gold market, is looking like the busiest day of the week. We have four important events. To start it, we have the Federal Reserves Economic Projection report, then their FOMC Statement. Both of these are looking to create some strong volatility for Gold, so it wouldn't be surprising if we saw an $8-$10 movement if an unexpected variable is found.
Then, soon after will be the Fed's Fund Rate, we are forecast to see a 0.25% increase, up to 1.75%. If this is hit, for sure, Gold will dip, but if nothing actually changes this could reverse the slow downward trend we have been witnessing for the last week or so. Just to really fuck the market direction even more, a couple hours later, there is the FOMC Press conference. This is always dangerous for market direction because their is an open Q&A, so if an awkward question is presented we might see unexpected variations in market movement. Apart from these, there isn't really anything else watching as I believe these will completely overwhelm any other results from other nations. So watch out on Wednesday!
Thursday is looking like a quieter day, we don't have any standout releases, yet there are numerous events which will be worth watching. We have the UK's Retail Sales m/m, with a forecast showing a 0.3% increase but I doubt this will do too much for the Gold market to be honest. Also released, is the UK's Monetary Policy Statement and Bank Rate, both can create volatility in the Forex markets, but as the Bank Rate is expected to be stable I reckon this won't lead to any direction change in the Gold market for Thursday. Later on we have the US's Unemployment Claims, these always effect the market, forecast expecting only a very small decline in levels, by 1k. So Thursday is looking like it should be a fairly quiet day, maybe a day range of $10 but I don't see much more unless the US Dollar decides to start rallying again.
Closing the week, we do have one big piece, the US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which is forecast to be 0.8% above previous, which is substantial. If hit I expected a strong retreat for Gold, maybe we might see it down to under $1310 by the afternoon. This put with their Durable Goods Order, showing a forecast of over a 4% increase, is for sure going to do some damage to the Gold market, maybe this week is looking like a short, but who really knows?
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
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