The Week Ahead: 26th - 30th March.
This is a shortened week, with the Easter weekend meaning the markets shall be closed on Friday and Monday, yet this doesn't mean the week can't be exciting. So as always, lets break down some of the keys events taking place.
Monday's a very quiet day, with only four releases. But we have two events worth watching, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Members Dudley and Mester shall be speaking in the evening period. These events aren't too extravagant, yet both do have a discussion section during the meetings which could lead to hints surrounding future interest rate decisions, so pay close attention!
Tuesday we have a focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence, which will show what households believe about future economic progress, including 'labour availability' and 'business conditions'(Forex Factory, 2018). The forecast is highlighting a continuing progression, with expectation showing a 1 point rise in the index. This is important and should if hit help rebound the dwindling dollar which was badly damaged at the end of last week as a result of Trumps inability to hold his tongue. Apart from this, on Tuesday there isn't anything else I see having much effect on the Gold market.
In the afternoon period of Wednesday the US are releasing their Final GDP q/q, this is looking to be the biggest event of the week for the Gold market. Forecast is expecting a 0.2% rise from the previous quarter, which if hit should help the rebound in the Dollar we are expecting to see during Tuesday's trading. This could mean Gold could dip dramatically, a shift of anything above $10 wouldn't be that surprising as a result of a strong actual result in the GDP. Worth watching on Wednesday will be the US's Pending Home Sales m/m. The change from last month is forecast to be substantial, going from almost a 5% decline to a 2.7% this month. This will further dampen any extra growth in the Gold market this week, and might even shift the precious metal into a bearish position for the rest of the day and week. Later on, the FOMC member Bostic is speaking, volatility of course shall be witnessed, but direction change, I don't believe so.
Finishing the week, and we do have the most amount of releases but I don't think we have any big drivers. Worth watching shall be the UK's Current Account, forecast is expecting a small increase in the deficit. Following this release, we have the Canadian monthly GDP, I don't expect much consequence of this, their level of growth is already borderline neutral and unless their is substantial deviation from forecast there shall be little knock-on effect on the Gold market. Later we have the US's Weekly Unemployment Change, expected to increase by 2k. Also worth paying attention too shall be the US's Personal Spending m/m and their Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. I don't reckon we shall see much movement Thursday directly as a result of these releases, but any political outrage can always completely fuck the markets!
This week looks to be bearish for the yellow metal, I don't think it will be a huge decline, but I would be surprised if we witnessed much further gains in Gold throughout the week.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Investing.com 2018.
Monday's a very quiet day, with only four releases. But we have two events worth watching, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Members Dudley and Mester shall be speaking in the evening period. These events aren't too extravagant, yet both do have a discussion section during the meetings which could lead to hints surrounding future interest rate decisions, so pay close attention!
Tuesday we have a focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence, which will show what households believe about future economic progress, including 'labour availability' and 'business conditions'(Forex Factory, 2018). The forecast is highlighting a continuing progression, with expectation showing a 1 point rise in the index. This is important and should if hit help rebound the dwindling dollar which was badly damaged at the end of last week as a result of Trumps inability to hold his tongue. Apart from this, on Tuesday there isn't anything else I see having much effect on the Gold market.
In the afternoon period of Wednesday the US are releasing their Final GDP q/q, this is looking to be the biggest event of the week for the Gold market. Forecast is expecting a 0.2% rise from the previous quarter, which if hit should help the rebound in the Dollar we are expecting to see during Tuesday's trading. This could mean Gold could dip dramatically, a shift of anything above $10 wouldn't be that surprising as a result of a strong actual result in the GDP. Worth watching on Wednesday will be the US's Pending Home Sales m/m. The change from last month is forecast to be substantial, going from almost a 5% decline to a 2.7% this month. This will further dampen any extra growth in the Gold market this week, and might even shift the precious metal into a bearish position for the rest of the day and week. Later on, the FOMC member Bostic is speaking, volatility of course shall be witnessed, but direction change, I don't believe so.
Finishing the week, and we do have the most amount of releases but I don't think we have any big drivers. Worth watching shall be the UK's Current Account, forecast is expecting a small increase in the deficit. Following this release, we have the Canadian monthly GDP, I don't expect much consequence of this, their level of growth is already borderline neutral and unless their is substantial deviation from forecast there shall be little knock-on effect on the Gold market. Later we have the US's Weekly Unemployment Change, expected to increase by 2k. Also worth paying attention too shall be the US's Personal Spending m/m and their Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. I don't reckon we shall see much movement Thursday directly as a result of these releases, but any political outrage can always completely fuck the markets!
This week looks to be bearish for the yellow metal, I don't think it will be a huge decline, but I would be surprised if we witnessed much further gains in Gold throughout the week.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
Investing.com 2018.
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