The Week Ahead: 12th - 16th March.
The week gone by has been fascinating, we genuinely saw no directional change from week open to week close. The precious metal opened at $1323 and closed on Friday at $1323, which is so mad, never seen such a weird position. The week was busy and highs of $1339 were seen before they came crumbling back as political tensions between the US and Korea declined. But this week is full of releases coming from the US so we could see some considerable movement for the precious metal.
Monday is very quiet, to watch for, we have the US Federal Budget Balance, with forecast being strongly negative, so worth paying attention to this to see how this plays out. Then Tuesday we have a few sizeable releases from the US, with their CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m coming out. Forecast is showing a decline in both from last month however they are positive so if forecast is hit it will result in a decline in Gold I believe as confidence in the Dollar grows. Worth watching on Tuesday will be the: UK's Annual Budget Release and the BOC's Governor Poloz speaking. These are both meagre influences on Gold so I doubt we shall see much effect as a result.
Wednesday is another busy day for US releases, we have their: Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m and Retail Sales m/m. All forecasts are positive, and Retail Sales are showing quite a strong change from last month, but PPI m/m is forecast to decline a little from last month. These will create quite some movement in the Forex market, and for Gold, we could be seeing quite a strong fall and this could potentially trip into a Bear trend if results are better than expected. Worth watching for Wednesday are: New Zealands GDP q/q, the ECB President Draghi speaking and one which could be actually a big surprise is China's Industrial Production y/y results. They are still showing insane growth above 6% so it will be intriguing to see how much of an effect this will have on the Gold market.
Thursday is forecast to be pretty peaceful, with no huge events. Worth watching will be the US Unemployment Claims, showing little change from last week, with forecast at 230k. Also there is the US Import Prices, with a forecast of 0.7% decline from last month, which could lead to some negative movement in the Dollar. Then we have the Swiss Libor Rate and Monetary Policy Assessment, but I see little knock-on consequence on the precious metal from this, but I could be wrong!
Friday is forecast to be more lively than Thursday, we have one main event, the US Building Permits, forecast is highlighting a big dip from last month. But last month's result was almost an anomaly so this dip may not be as damaging as it looks. Housing Starts are also released, down again, like last month, but as long as the forecast is held I doubt we shall see much consequence from this. Later on we have the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, which will be worth watching but I don't see much effect on the Gold market from this.
This week could be very busy for Gold, I expect some strong movement. But I feel we will see a further dip of the Dollar as numerous releases aren't looking too strong. But the constant political tensions between the US and Korea might result in unforeseen shifts in them market!
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018.
Monday is very quiet, to watch for, we have the US Federal Budget Balance, with forecast being strongly negative, so worth paying attention to this to see how this plays out. Then Tuesday we have a few sizeable releases from the US, with their CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m coming out. Forecast is showing a decline in both from last month however they are positive so if forecast is hit it will result in a decline in Gold I believe as confidence in the Dollar grows. Worth watching on Tuesday will be the: UK's Annual Budget Release and the BOC's Governor Poloz speaking. These are both meagre influences on Gold so I doubt we shall see much effect as a result.
Wednesday is another busy day for US releases, we have their: Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m and Retail Sales m/m. All forecasts are positive, and Retail Sales are showing quite a strong change from last month, but PPI m/m is forecast to decline a little from last month. These will create quite some movement in the Forex market, and for Gold, we could be seeing quite a strong fall and this could potentially trip into a Bear trend if results are better than expected. Worth watching for Wednesday are: New Zealands GDP q/q, the ECB President Draghi speaking and one which could be actually a big surprise is China's Industrial Production y/y results. They are still showing insane growth above 6% so it will be intriguing to see how much of an effect this will have on the Gold market.
Thursday is forecast to be pretty peaceful, with no huge events. Worth watching will be the US Unemployment Claims, showing little change from last week, with forecast at 230k. Also there is the US Import Prices, with a forecast of 0.7% decline from last month, which could lead to some negative movement in the Dollar. Then we have the Swiss Libor Rate and Monetary Policy Assessment, but I see little knock-on consequence on the precious metal from this, but I could be wrong!
Friday is forecast to be more lively than Thursday, we have one main event, the US Building Permits, forecast is highlighting a big dip from last month. But last month's result was almost an anomaly so this dip may not be as damaging as it looks. Housing Starts are also released, down again, like last month, but as long as the forecast is held I doubt we shall see much consequence from this. Later on we have the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, which will be worth watching but I don't see much effect on the Gold market from this.
This week could be very busy for Gold, I expect some strong movement. But I feel we will see a further dip of the Dollar as numerous releases aren't looking too strong. But the constant political tensions between the US and Korea might result in unforeseen shifts in them market!
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018.
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