Week 2: Pickings
Currently I sit going through what I believe will be the biggest influences to gold this week, nar I am kiding, I have been looking at Forex Factory and seeing what is outlined as red.
Anyway, after looking through this, it would seem the largest and potentially most damaging factors to the direction of gold are occurring Wednesday onward. Bit boring to wait till Wednesday so decided I would look at what the Manufacturing Production m/m change for Britain will effect the pound. The forecast estimates a decline, moving down to 0.3% from 0.5% last month. I personally don't believe this, the UK currency has been completely fucked by the constant fluctuating exchange rate against the dollar and euro respectively.
Being an Economist and using what I am taught in university this should mean exports will increase as weaker exchange rates mean UK goods are cheaper for buyers abroad. Yet the one thing markets hate is instability regardless how promising the decline looks for buyers. This in my opinion means I reckon the decline will be either 0.3% or lower, even potentially negative. The GBD/USD is sitting at just over 1.31. There will be a dip, how low, honestly I lack experience to know exactly, but if m/m change is below .3% I reckon 1.29 could be hit.
Moving forward Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are offering some interesting factors which may effect the Gold direction significantly. Looking at what data is released, I reckon the value of Gold may take a big dive, pushing a strong bearish trend, Gold of this moment is trading at just above 1280 against the pound. Wednesday, there is a Federal Reserve meeting, implications, unknown of the moment and I ain't staying awake till 3am to watch that stuff, so fuck it.
But Thursday and Friday are busy (for the US dollar), the PPI m/m is released Thursday, forecast of .4% compared to last months 0.2%. This is big, if the forecast is met ( I believe it will) this will cause the dollar to rally for sure. Following this, the unemployment claims per month are released for the US. Again the forecast will strongly positively effect the dollar, with forecast of 255k claiming, compared to last months 260k. I believe it could be even lower to this as last week the unemployment rate was .2% lower than what was of forecast. This could result in the actual being lower than the forecast. I reckon it will be.
Gold could be pushed into a bearish position I believe, hitting 1260 by Friday afternoon after US CPI is released as well. Which is expected to increase from 0.4% last month to 0.6% this month. Core CPI, core retail sales and Retail sales are released as well. All showing change except core CPI, but Retail Sales are expected to have a 1.7% change from last month, which is huge. moving from -.2 up to 1.5%.
If this is met, let alone exceeded the dollar will spike for sure, which as we know causes Gold to dip, and this dip could be massive.
I am 100% shorting gold this week, waiting till Thursday to buy in and then seeing what will happen.
I reckon 1260 is optimistic, I can't lie but if results come out correctly I don't see why this can't be achieved.
Any comments abusing my naively or just discussing what I reckon are always interesting.
Anyway, after looking through this, it would seem the largest and potentially most damaging factors to the direction of gold are occurring Wednesday onward. Bit boring to wait till Wednesday so decided I would look at what the Manufacturing Production m/m change for Britain will effect the pound. The forecast estimates a decline, moving down to 0.3% from 0.5% last month. I personally don't believe this, the UK currency has been completely fucked by the constant fluctuating exchange rate against the dollar and euro respectively.
Being an Economist and using what I am taught in university this should mean exports will increase as weaker exchange rates mean UK goods are cheaper for buyers abroad. Yet the one thing markets hate is instability regardless how promising the decline looks for buyers. This in my opinion means I reckon the decline will be either 0.3% or lower, even potentially negative. The GBD/USD is sitting at just over 1.31. There will be a dip, how low, honestly I lack experience to know exactly, but if m/m change is below .3% I reckon 1.29 could be hit.
Moving forward Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are offering some interesting factors which may effect the Gold direction significantly. Looking at what data is released, I reckon the value of Gold may take a big dive, pushing a strong bearish trend, Gold of this moment is trading at just above 1280 against the pound. Wednesday, there is a Federal Reserve meeting, implications, unknown of the moment and I ain't staying awake till 3am to watch that stuff, so fuck it.
But Thursday and Friday are busy (for the US dollar), the PPI m/m is released Thursday, forecast of .4% compared to last months 0.2%. This is big, if the forecast is met ( I believe it will) this will cause the dollar to rally for sure. Following this, the unemployment claims per month are released for the US. Again the forecast will strongly positively effect the dollar, with forecast of 255k claiming, compared to last months 260k. I believe it could be even lower to this as last week the unemployment rate was .2% lower than what was of forecast. This could result in the actual being lower than the forecast. I reckon it will be.
Gold could be pushed into a bearish position I believe, hitting 1260 by Friday afternoon after US CPI is released as well. Which is expected to increase from 0.4% last month to 0.6% this month. Core CPI, core retail sales and Retail sales are released as well. All showing change except core CPI, but Retail Sales are expected to have a 1.7% change from last month, which is huge. moving from -.2 up to 1.5%.
If this is met, let alone exceeded the dollar will spike for sure, which as we know causes Gold to dip, and this dip could be massive.
I am 100% shorting gold this week, waiting till Thursday to buy in and then seeing what will happen.
I reckon 1260 is optimistic, I can't lie but if results come out correctly I don't see why this can't be achieved.
Any comments abusing my naively or just discussing what I reckon are always interesting.
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