Reflecting
Yesterday (Tuesday 10th) the UK released their monthly manufacturing results, and oh boy was I wrong, I disregarded simple economic theory as I didn't believe the lower pound would have so much impact on the current manufacturing data. The forecast was correct and I was wrong, but the actual was strongly above the forecast, over 0.2% above what was expected. Thus clearly highlighting just how effective the lower exchange rate has been in influencing the manufacturing growth.
I focused on market confidence in making my own predictions, as I thought markets just relied on stability to decide other outside factors. Yet I was wrong as the manufacturing sector is physical not just a graph on a computer and therefore no surprise manufacturing was up m/m , cheaper exchange rate=cheaper goods for overseas countries.
This led to the pound rallying quite strongly yesterday, hitting 1.31 against the dollar, the opposite of what I predicted. But as always its very interesting to see what happens and when you don't get it right you just learn for next time. Tomorrow and Friday are looking interesting for Gold, so we shall see what this holds in store.
I focused on market confidence in making my own predictions, as I thought markets just relied on stability to decide other outside factors. Yet I was wrong as the manufacturing sector is physical not just a graph on a computer and therefore no surprise manufacturing was up m/m , cheaper exchange rate=cheaper goods for overseas countries.
This led to the pound rallying quite strongly yesterday, hitting 1.31 against the dollar, the opposite of what I predicted. But as always its very interesting to see what happens and when you don't get it right you just learn for next time. Tomorrow and Friday are looking interesting for Gold, so we shall see what this holds in store.
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