The Bearish Gold(Hopefully)

Data releases on Wednesday and Thursday this week are offering interest in the direction of the US dollar as well as Crude Oil prices. 

On Wednesday the US release the monthly Building Permits results, forecast is looking at 1.25m down from 1.27m the month before(Forex Factory, 2017). Long-term we are seeing an upward trend after the low in April of this year, but what shall be interesting is how badly the Hurricane's of last month such as Harvey and Maria will damage this, will it allow for more building permits than expected to allow for faster re-building of the damage that has been done. I don't have enough trading experience to understand or know the wide effect of this if forecast, I just know if met or exceeded it will lead to an up-shift of the US dollar against the Pound and Euro.  

But later in the day Crude Oil Inventories are released, we have been seeing a constant decline in production, last month there was a -2.7m decline in production but forecast is estimating a -4.7m decline which is huge. Crude is currently sitting just below 52$, continuing on a seemingly bullish trend but of this moment is hitting a fairly low patch. This decline in output could allow for Crude to hit a level not seen for the last few months, maybe even 53-54$ but the decline in production does seem huge and I don't know if this exact amount will actually be implemented. However the US has been serious about reducing production ever since Crude has been declining below $50. It shall be fascinating to see the consequences regardless of what the data says.

Thursday we are seeing Unemployment Claim data from the United States of America, and well they are forecast to be down to 240k compared to last week of 243k(Forex Factory, 2017). This is a very realistic considering we have seen a decline through the past 4 out of 5 weeks. If this is met we can see a nice little continue rally of the dollar after the Building Permits hitting target, maybe this could mean by Friday the Dollar will reach a new high against the pound etc. I pray this doesn't happen, the exchange was starting to get better, really don't need another down-shift for the pound.

But what does all this hold for Gold you may ask(If not, don't worry I almost forgot too). Anyway, after completely fucking me last week and declining to go on a naughty lil bullish rally up to 1305$ we now are seeing a strong bearish movement, sitting now at 1285. I have decided to continue to short Gold, holding my position, as with the Unemployment Claims and Building Permits on Wednesday and Thursday we could see the dollar shifting again up (as stated previously) and therefore Gold should(hopefully) continue to push down, and potentially hit its lowest point on late Thursday night, I won't say a number because Gold continues to surprise me so I could be shooting into the dark but I feel looking at what is on offer this a very realistic position to take.

Please feel free to abuse or discuss my reasons.