Wednesday again
No, once again nothing is really coming up till Wednesday(that I really care about). But this week I have decided to include the AUD as their CPI q/q comes out Wednesday and boy is there some movement. The forecast expecting a result of 0.8% compared to last quarter which recorded a result of 0.2%(Forex Factory, 2017).
The last week has seen a fairly constant dip of the currently against the US dollar, currently sitting at 0.781 against the dollar. The data release offers some hope to this falling position, as a strong result either on target or above could help the AUD end the week in a strong position against other major currencies. However I believe the main issue is out of the hands of the AUD because the dollar has been hitting new heights against many other majors within in the market. Hitting a high of 114.085 against the JPY and 0.98770 against the Swiss Franc. This makes me believe that even with a strong result it may not cause a long-term trend against the dollar because the last few weeks has seen some very strong results of data from the US meaning that the Dollar has continued to hold a solid bull trend.
There is starting to be a consistency here, interesting data releases seem to come from Wednesday onwards....
Anyway, later in the day on Wednesday the ONS release the GBP q/q which is offering a forecast of 0.3% compared to last quarters results which was also 0.3%(Forex Factory, 2017). What does this mean for the pound, I don't think it will lead to much, the pound did have a very bad week last week but luckily slightly rallied up to 1.318 on Friday against the Dollar. But as I stated in the paragraph above the Dollar is just doing bits and bobs. I don't believe anything apart from the US going to war with North Korea or Mr Trump saying something really stupid(quite possible) will results in much change negatively for the dollar. But the pound just doesn't really seem to want to achieve any progress upwards, the Brexit talk just doesn't really move forward with constant bullshit from Mrs May which is just infuriating from my political position. I as always hope there will be some development but I doubt it, maybe the pound will continue down this week, honestly who knows.
At almost the same time Wednesday the US release their Core Durable Goods Order m/m, with forecast expected at 0.3% which is the same as last month. It shall be interesting to see the implications of this as its released at such a similar time to the UK data, thus leading to a very volatile 30 minutes or so when these pieces of data are dropped. Such data releases further develop my belief we could see another strong week for the dollar, further pushing the value of the pound down.
Finally on Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories are released, looking to be similar to last week however last week exceeded expected by a million as I talked about yesterday. I am not gonna spend any time discussing this because last week I was so fucking off on it, and I don't see the point in taking a random shot in the dark and being completely wrong again.
Thursday we see the final data release I shall be following. US unemployment claims, which is expected to be 236k against last weeks results of 222k which was way below forecast. One of the reasons the dollar continued its strong rally. If this is reached or if numbers are below we shall (as I keep saying) see this bull market continue in the Dollar.
Now what does this mean for Gold. I see this bear market continuing, currently gold is at 1275, but looks at the moment as though its levelling out, however I see this downtrend continuing with data releases from the US taking strong effect. Therefore by the end of the week we might see a value of gold not seen for the last few weeks, maybe even 1260 or below. But as always who knows, if the data forecasts are off and results are worse than expected this might led to gold hitting a rally and recovering up to 1300.
What you reckon, let me know.
The last week has seen a fairly constant dip of the currently against the US dollar, currently sitting at 0.781 against the dollar. The data release offers some hope to this falling position, as a strong result either on target or above could help the AUD end the week in a strong position against other major currencies. However I believe the main issue is out of the hands of the AUD because the dollar has been hitting new heights against many other majors within in the market. Hitting a high of 114.085 against the JPY and 0.98770 against the Swiss Franc. This makes me believe that even with a strong result it may not cause a long-term trend against the dollar because the last few weeks has seen some very strong results of data from the US meaning that the Dollar has continued to hold a solid bull trend.
There is starting to be a consistency here, interesting data releases seem to come from Wednesday onwards....
Anyway, later in the day on Wednesday the ONS release the GBP q/q which is offering a forecast of 0.3% compared to last quarters results which was also 0.3%(Forex Factory, 2017). What does this mean for the pound, I don't think it will lead to much, the pound did have a very bad week last week but luckily slightly rallied up to 1.318 on Friday against the Dollar. But as I stated in the paragraph above the Dollar is just doing bits and bobs. I don't believe anything apart from the US going to war with North Korea or Mr Trump saying something really stupid(quite possible) will results in much change negatively for the dollar. But the pound just doesn't really seem to want to achieve any progress upwards, the Brexit talk just doesn't really move forward with constant bullshit from Mrs May which is just infuriating from my political position. I as always hope there will be some development but I doubt it, maybe the pound will continue down this week, honestly who knows.
At almost the same time Wednesday the US release their Core Durable Goods Order m/m, with forecast expected at 0.3% which is the same as last month. It shall be interesting to see the implications of this as its released at such a similar time to the UK data, thus leading to a very volatile 30 minutes or so when these pieces of data are dropped. Such data releases further develop my belief we could see another strong week for the dollar, further pushing the value of the pound down.
Finally on Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories are released, looking to be similar to last week however last week exceeded expected by a million as I talked about yesterday. I am not gonna spend any time discussing this because last week I was so fucking off on it, and I don't see the point in taking a random shot in the dark and being completely wrong again.
Thursday we see the final data release I shall be following. US unemployment claims, which is expected to be 236k against last weeks results of 222k which was way below forecast. One of the reasons the dollar continued its strong rally. If this is reached or if numbers are below we shall (as I keep saying) see this bull market continue in the Dollar.
Now what does this mean for Gold. I see this bear market continuing, currently gold is at 1275, but looks at the moment as though its levelling out, however I see this downtrend continuing with data releases from the US taking strong effect. Therefore by the end of the week we might see a value of gold not seen for the last few weeks, maybe even 1260 or below. But as always who knows, if the data forecasts are off and results are worse than expected this might led to gold hitting a rally and recovering up to 1300.
What you reckon, let me know.
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