Learning, always learning

Apologies for the late post, been away for the last 5 days so haven't had the time to upload anything. But last week again has been incredible, Gold hit a 4 1/2 month low during Friday and the main factors have been this tax reform issue in the US. What we are finding is the closer we come to a deal the more Gold is dipping because the Tax Reform is positive for the Green Back. Furthermore such 'Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue on its gradual path of monetary policy tightening'  are damaging any bull direction. After researching I have found typically December is a bad month for Gold, dipping for the last 10 years in a row, so I think my bull before Christmas may never happen and this is so frustrating, but all I can do is learn. 

The data releases of last week were factors in the downward direction but weren't the lead cause of the negative direction. So I am just picking out some of the main releases which really directed the market and can you believe it, the main influences are all from America. Monday opened at $1284 and it wasn't that busy a day so there was strong fall, closing at $1275. But this was more due to the constant questions surrounding the Tax Reform in the US which lead to investors moving away from Gold as it lead to much speculation within the market. While the Dollar didn't move too much but did finish the day above open, which helped push down the yellow metal. 

While Tuesday kept me lingering in that hopeful stage that I would see a recovery in Gold, as it held throughout the day at a fairly stable rate. But I feel this was mostly due to the lack of activity in the US and thus I should of realised this but instead I decided to buy more into the Market. 

Wednesday saw the strong downward dip we are seeing at the moment. The main factor affecting this dip was the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which was up by 1k at 190k. This is so small however it further reduces confidence in the market and thus only helped egde the metal into a spiral which didn't show much hold. This meant we saw the slide only continue and of course this is brilliant stuff for bear traders but terrible for da bullsss!!!!

The second to last day of the week was where we saw the real dip, here the optimism over the Tax Reform in the US hit the market and just produced this slide where Gold was trading at $1250, wtf!!! These levels have not been seen for months and it just highlights the damage Political discussion has on markets. US unemployment Claims were down by 3k to 236k and also the Dollar has been experiencing a strong rally which doesn't help the direction of Gold as they run opposite ways.

Then lastly we have Friday, which is where Gold hit its lowest point in 4 1/2 months as I stated above, pretty fuck incredible. At one point it hit $1244, complete scenes going on and the main data release that effected this was the Non-Farm Unemployment Change being way better than forecast at 228k. Thus helping rally the Dollar and dipping the Gold Spot.

Terrible week really for Gold if your bullish, yet whenever I am researching I constant belief of a majority Bull trend. But this must be a long-term belief, as Political factors are very much damaging any positive upward movement. We have Interest Rate change potentially coming up in the US which is probably going to dip Gold even further, but long-term I see a positive direction and a correction after Christmas is very possible.

The Naive Trader

Investing.com, 2017

Forex Factory, 2017