I was mighty Wrong!
This week just gone was mad, I was so fucking wrong, its quite funny really. But its really interesting to see how I managed to get it so wrong considering I felt confident we would see a continuation of the bull trend that finished the week before, so maybe $1300 could be hit. Man I was wrong, Gold closed on Friday down at $1279, and that was only reached after gold recovered from lows of $1270. I was so baffled so working out what happened is very important.
Monday, there really wasn't too much happening, the only mention-able event was US New Homes Sales, which came in miles over forecast at 685k, but the effect of this wasn't huge, Monday did see a strong bull run for Gold and we saw $1298 hit before the US new Homes sales release. Yet even this didn't do too much damage and Gold held out above $1290 before closing at $1294.
Moving forward, Tuesday again made me continue to think $1300 will happen. There were numerous speakers discussing important issues throughout the day which kept the market quite volatile. We firstly had the Bank Stress Results from the UK, which did little effect to the market, while soon after Mr Carney spoke and again the effects of this were limited thankfully. Yet the afternoon/evening was where the concept of another bull week looked likely, I thought I was right. New to be Fed Leader Powell spoke in the afternoon which caused a bit of volatility, yet the movement was only by about 4-5$ which again isn't huge. Even after US Consumer Confidence came out above forecast at 129.5 it didn't really direct the market down or up and thus I believed at this point $1290 was a holding position and any downward moving would be surprising. Tuesday closed just above $1294 and I was sure we could see $1300 by the end of the week.
Wednesday is where my Bull trend was completely smashed out the water, until 1pm everything looking mighty nice, slow movement up to $1296 before a little retreat and then the downward spiral began. Gold dipped down by 6$ very quickly before continuing down due to US Pending Home sales m/m being 2.4% above forecast at 3.5%, after this it helped Gold close on Wednesday at $1283.
The second to last day of the business week, Thursday. Which was a very busy day for Data releases around the world. The early morning releases such as the AUD & NZD didn't do much effect to the market, which I was honestly quite surprised by. Later in the morning we had the German Retail Sales m/m which were down quite a lot, -1.2% compared to the forecast of 0.3%. This caused Gold to dip a little because the EUR lost value against the dollar and thus gold declines from this. Then the European CPI Flash Estimates were released, this was below forecast but only by 0.1%. This did lead to a little dip in Gold but the decline was more due to the constant negative data releases all pushing down and thus producing a long-term bear trend.
Anyway for personal interest more than actual effect the Euro unemployment rate was released at the same time, which was down on forecast by just a 0.1% at 8.8%. Its crazy how high this is compared to the UK, only a few weeks ago we found the UK unemployment levels were lowest they have been for 30+ years at 4.5% I think. Shows how long-term the recession from almost 10 years really hasn't been completely fixed and therefore the UK should never have decided to leave the EU as we need each other...
Anyway I digress,
Back on track now. After the data release above, Gold was already down, at $1280 and falling fast. But later the US weekly Unemployment change came out and was below forecast at 238k which isn't much below but it all has an effect. As well as this, US Personal Spending m/m and Personal Income m/m was released and both were above forecast, so by now we get the jist of the market direction. By the time the market closed Gold Spot per troy ounce had hit $1271 before holding just above and closing at $1275. My God, Thursday was ugly for Bull Traders, it seems the dip this week has been more due to underestimates for a lot of US data and thus has lead to a dip in the Gold market.
Friday was less hectic but more drastic. Great Britain released their manufacturing PMI which was above forecast, whey, but not by much as its above the basic Index value of 50 at 58.2, it does show a nice bit of growth in the industry. Effect on Gold, little to be honest. Later on Canada had their Employment Change, GDP m/m and Unemployment Rate. All of the three were better than expected, and caused a little $1 upward move, but still at this point Gold was all the way down at $1273! Anyhow we then saw this ridiculous jump at 4pm(Madrid, Spain) of $1274 up to $1289. Which is madness, this was due to Wall Street stocks falling because of the potential stumble in the Tax reform, its crazy how much of an effect this has on markets. But also at this time the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was released which is important however the actual wasn't that far from the forecast, only down by .2. The dip continued back where Gold close Friday at $1280.
It has been an interesting week, very volatile and hard to comprehend in my opinion. I still personally hope for a bull trend and do long-term seeing this happen, $1300 has to happen soon. With constant North Korean issues and the fact Michael Flynn is 'prepared to testify' and Trump and the Russian effect on the US elections I don't see this number not happening. Whether it happens now or after Christmas is anyone's guess. I still reckon it will happen before!
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2017
Investing.com, 2017
IG trading, 2017
Monday, there really wasn't too much happening, the only mention-able event was US New Homes Sales, which came in miles over forecast at 685k, but the effect of this wasn't huge, Monday did see a strong bull run for Gold and we saw $1298 hit before the US new Homes sales release. Yet even this didn't do too much damage and Gold held out above $1290 before closing at $1294.
Moving forward, Tuesday again made me continue to think $1300 will happen. There were numerous speakers discussing important issues throughout the day which kept the market quite volatile. We firstly had the Bank Stress Results from the UK, which did little effect to the market, while soon after Mr Carney spoke and again the effects of this were limited thankfully. Yet the afternoon/evening was where the concept of another bull week looked likely, I thought I was right. New to be Fed Leader Powell spoke in the afternoon which caused a bit of volatility, yet the movement was only by about 4-5$ which again isn't huge. Even after US Consumer Confidence came out above forecast at 129.5 it didn't really direct the market down or up and thus I believed at this point $1290 was a holding position and any downward moving would be surprising. Tuesday closed just above $1294 and I was sure we could see $1300 by the end of the week.
Wednesday is where my Bull trend was completely smashed out the water, until 1pm everything looking mighty nice, slow movement up to $1296 before a little retreat and then the downward spiral began. Gold dipped down by 6$ very quickly before continuing down due to US Pending Home sales m/m being 2.4% above forecast at 3.5%, after this it helped Gold close on Wednesday at $1283.
The second to last day of the business week, Thursday. Which was a very busy day for Data releases around the world. The early morning releases such as the AUD & NZD didn't do much effect to the market, which I was honestly quite surprised by. Later in the morning we had the German Retail Sales m/m which were down quite a lot, -1.2% compared to the forecast of 0.3%. This caused Gold to dip a little because the EUR lost value against the dollar and thus gold declines from this. Then the European CPI Flash Estimates were released, this was below forecast but only by 0.1%. This did lead to a little dip in Gold but the decline was more due to the constant negative data releases all pushing down and thus producing a long-term bear trend.
Anyway for personal interest more than actual effect the Euro unemployment rate was released at the same time, which was down on forecast by just a 0.1% at 8.8%. Its crazy how high this is compared to the UK, only a few weeks ago we found the UK unemployment levels were lowest they have been for 30+ years at 4.5% I think. Shows how long-term the recession from almost 10 years really hasn't been completely fixed and therefore the UK should never have decided to leave the EU as we need each other...
Anyway I digress,
Back on track now. After the data release above, Gold was already down, at $1280 and falling fast. But later the US weekly Unemployment change came out and was below forecast at 238k which isn't much below but it all has an effect. As well as this, US Personal Spending m/m and Personal Income m/m was released and both were above forecast, so by now we get the jist of the market direction. By the time the market closed Gold Spot per troy ounce had hit $1271 before holding just above and closing at $1275. My God, Thursday was ugly for Bull Traders, it seems the dip this week has been more due to underestimates for a lot of US data and thus has lead to a dip in the Gold market.
Friday was less hectic but more drastic. Great Britain released their manufacturing PMI which was above forecast, whey, but not by much as its above the basic Index value of 50 at 58.2, it does show a nice bit of growth in the industry. Effect on Gold, little to be honest. Later on Canada had their Employment Change, GDP m/m and Unemployment Rate. All of the three were better than expected, and caused a little $1 upward move, but still at this point Gold was all the way down at $1273! Anyhow we then saw this ridiculous jump at 4pm(Madrid, Spain) of $1274 up to $1289. Which is madness, this was due to Wall Street stocks falling because of the potential stumble in the Tax reform, its crazy how much of an effect this has on markets. But also at this time the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was released which is important however the actual wasn't that far from the forecast, only down by .2. The dip continued back where Gold close Friday at $1280.
It has been an interesting week, very volatile and hard to comprehend in my opinion. I still personally hope for a bull trend and do long-term seeing this happen, $1300 has to happen soon. With constant North Korean issues and the fact Michael Flynn is 'prepared to testify' and Trump and the Russian effect on the US elections I don't see this number not happening. Whether it happens now or after Christmas is anyone's guess. I still reckon it will happen before!
The Naive Trader
Forex Factory, 2017
Investing.com, 2017
IG trading, 2017
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