Bullish, maybe, hopefully
This week ahead isn't looking good for a bull position, Monday is showing a continuing of last weeks bear trend ending. The only interesting release on Monday is the British Construction PMI which was above forecast at 53.1 compared to 51.2. But the effect seems to have been limited and Monday is looking like a very stable day, holding out around the $1275 range throughout the day.
On to Tuesday, and Australia are the busy ones in the morning, with 3 data releases during the early hours. We are seeing the Current Account and Retail Sales m/m and the RBA Rate Statement. The Forecasts for these releases seem very positive, with Current Account being a lower deficit than before and Retail Sales showing growth. These are quite important releases in the region and thus might see a short upward rally, but these could be countered by China's Caixin Services PMI which is released around a similar time and I am not certain but I believe a good result my lead to a dip in Gold because Gold has been used as a reserve for the economy so it could be quite a volatile early morning!
Later in the morning we have the UK's Service PMI, looking very similar to last month, changing down by only .4, to 55.2. Again, this is a fairly small change and the effect on Gold I believe will be fairly limited as the cables effect on Golds direction is no where near as powerful as the USD/JPY market.
While later in the day we have the US and Canadian monthly Trade Balance as the same time. As these releases should counter each other if we saw targets hit I don't believe it will lead to any strong up/downs directions, yet there will be a lot of volatility. Then to close off Tuesday we have the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is forecast to be down from last month yet its still showing growth. Tuesday is looking hard to predict, there are enough releases to lead to some direction however its hard to tell which way it shall go.
Wednesday now, its looking a little bit quieter than Tuesday! Early Wednesday Australia release their quarterly GDP result, showing a forecast below last quarter by .1% at 0.7%. Like early Tuesday morning this will effect the Gold market however forecast is little change and thus if hit we probably won't see more than a $2 shift at maximum during the period. Next we have the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change m/m which is looking to be considerably down from last month. This might have quite a big effect on the Gold as if hit it should dip the Dollar quite heavily and thus Gold might break into a little rally Wednesday afternoon?
Then later in the afternoon there is the Canadian Rate Statement and the Overnight Rate. As the statement involves speakers it will create volatility within the markets but also the Overnight Right is looking the same, so if correct the effect may be limited and maybe Wednesday we see a bullish movement?
4th day of the week now, and early hours once again we have data from Australia, with their monthly Trade Balance, showing a strong surplus in forecast however down from last month. This could be quite a volatile period because a few previous results have been very different to forecasts and it is an important data release so it would have a strong effect on the markets. Hopefully we see above forecast to boost Gold but I doubt it will have much effect on Mr Yellow. Later on we have US weekly Unemployment Claims, which are looking up on last week. This is good for the yellow metal because unemployment claims strongly effect the US market and thus bad results mean upward movement in Gold. Then to finish the day off, Mr Draghi is speaking so as we know, it will lead to a volatile period but I don't know what this will lead to, but maybe Thursday will continue Wednesdays (hopeful) Bull Trend and maybe Gold will start to hold above $1285-$1290 please!!!!
Friday opens with quite a bit of Data releases from Japan in the early hours, and this could be busy period for Gold as the Japanese currency has a strong effect on the US dollar. However none of the releases are drastically different to previous periods and the actual effect may be limited if it doesn't vary much from last release, but if we do see change the early morning of Friday may be a busy period for Gold traders! Later on we have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m results which look negative, oh dear, oh dear. An 0.8% drop could really hinder the cable market but later important US results are releases and they aren't looking too good. We see that Non-Farm Employment change is down by just over 60k which isn't good but Hourly Pay is predicted to go up by 0.3%. So we might end up seeing quite a stable few hours, with movements but potentially no huge game changers. Then to finish the week off we have the US Unemployment Rate, which looks to be holding steady at 4.1%.
After seeing these forecasts etc. maybe it is possible we see a bullish week. Gold did terribly drop off by the end of last week and even now its not looking too good, yet I hear talk of people believing this is where Golds holds and then continues back upwards because of so much geopolitical tension but its hard to know how long that potential rally will last for or whether it will even happen even with all the stopping and starting of the US Tax Reforms, but Bullish I believe seems likely.
The Naive Trader
Investing.com, 2017
Forex Factory, 2017
IG.com, 2017
On to Tuesday, and Australia are the busy ones in the morning, with 3 data releases during the early hours. We are seeing the Current Account and Retail Sales m/m and the RBA Rate Statement. The Forecasts for these releases seem very positive, with Current Account being a lower deficit than before and Retail Sales showing growth. These are quite important releases in the region and thus might see a short upward rally, but these could be countered by China's Caixin Services PMI which is released around a similar time and I am not certain but I believe a good result my lead to a dip in Gold because Gold has been used as a reserve for the economy so it could be quite a volatile early morning!
Later in the morning we have the UK's Service PMI, looking very similar to last month, changing down by only .4, to 55.2. Again, this is a fairly small change and the effect on Gold I believe will be fairly limited as the cables effect on Golds direction is no where near as powerful as the USD/JPY market.
While later in the day we have the US and Canadian monthly Trade Balance as the same time. As these releases should counter each other if we saw targets hit I don't believe it will lead to any strong up/downs directions, yet there will be a lot of volatility. Then to close off Tuesday we have the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is forecast to be down from last month yet its still showing growth. Tuesday is looking hard to predict, there are enough releases to lead to some direction however its hard to tell which way it shall go.
Wednesday now, its looking a little bit quieter than Tuesday! Early Wednesday Australia release their quarterly GDP result, showing a forecast below last quarter by .1% at 0.7%. Like early Tuesday morning this will effect the Gold market however forecast is little change and thus if hit we probably won't see more than a $2 shift at maximum during the period. Next we have the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change m/m which is looking to be considerably down from last month. This might have quite a big effect on the Gold as if hit it should dip the Dollar quite heavily and thus Gold might break into a little rally Wednesday afternoon?
Then later in the afternoon there is the Canadian Rate Statement and the Overnight Rate. As the statement involves speakers it will create volatility within the markets but also the Overnight Right is looking the same, so if correct the effect may be limited and maybe Wednesday we see a bullish movement?
4th day of the week now, and early hours once again we have data from Australia, with their monthly Trade Balance, showing a strong surplus in forecast however down from last month. This could be quite a volatile period because a few previous results have been very different to forecasts and it is an important data release so it would have a strong effect on the markets. Hopefully we see above forecast to boost Gold but I doubt it will have much effect on Mr Yellow. Later on we have US weekly Unemployment Claims, which are looking up on last week. This is good for the yellow metal because unemployment claims strongly effect the US market and thus bad results mean upward movement in Gold. Then to finish the day off, Mr Draghi is speaking so as we know, it will lead to a volatile period but I don't know what this will lead to, but maybe Thursday will continue Wednesdays (hopeful) Bull Trend and maybe Gold will start to hold above $1285-$1290 please!!!!
Friday opens with quite a bit of Data releases from Japan in the early hours, and this could be busy period for Gold as the Japanese currency has a strong effect on the US dollar. However none of the releases are drastically different to previous periods and the actual effect may be limited if it doesn't vary much from last release, but if we do see change the early morning of Friday may be a busy period for Gold traders! Later on we have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m results which look negative, oh dear, oh dear. An 0.8% drop could really hinder the cable market but later important US results are releases and they aren't looking too good. We see that Non-Farm Employment change is down by just over 60k which isn't good but Hourly Pay is predicted to go up by 0.3%. So we might end up seeing quite a stable few hours, with movements but potentially no huge game changers. Then to finish the week off we have the US Unemployment Rate, which looks to be holding steady at 4.1%.
After seeing these forecasts etc. maybe it is possible we see a bullish week. Gold did terribly drop off by the end of last week and even now its not looking too good, yet I hear talk of people believing this is where Golds holds and then continues back upwards because of so much geopolitical tension but its hard to know how long that potential rally will last for or whether it will even happen even with all the stopping and starting of the US Tax Reforms, but Bullish I believe seems likely.
The Naive Trader
Investing.com, 2017
Forex Factory, 2017
IG.com, 2017
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