THE NAIVE TRADER

The week just finished has been magical for Gold, I am so impressed by how quickly it hit $1300 and continued to rally upwards before holding just below $1305 on Friday's close. I reckon this coming week should only continue to strengthen Spot Gold's Position as the Green back's dip is holding. Monday is a day of relaxation as it is a bank holiday throughout World Markets. Yet Tuesday could be a fascinating day as Markets open for the 1st time in 2018, however there are no data releases within the US market and our only potentially effect in data release comes in the UK where they have their Manufacturing PMI, forecast is looking very similar to last month and thus during this time I doubt we shall see much movement if forecast is hit. But Tuesday could be a volatile day just because its the first day of the new year with markets open and investors may be eager to shift bets between different markets! Midweek we see the first US data release of 2018, with the ISM Manufa...

I hope everyone had a good Christmas and enjoyed their time away with the family and eating a shit ton of food! But back now to comparing the weeks antics, this week has been very positive for Gold as expected, thus highlighting that a lack of data release doesn't mean nothing will happen within the respected markets. It seems the main variable this week has been the slow decline of the Dollar. Which has been holding a bear position for the last few days. Tuesday was a fairly quiet day with all the big news coming from the Asian markets. Japan had numerous influential data releases: Unemployment stats and House Holding Spending. The actual results seen were very positive for the Japanese economy. All data releases coming in better than forecasts which helped produce a steady dip the Dollar throughout Tuesday afternoon trading. Therefore throughout Tuesday Gold continued on a nice steady upward trend seen last week, with spot levels moving from $1273 up to $1282 by close. We saw...

Christmas week is as expected looking very quiet as markets throughout the world are closed for the few days surrounding the holiday yet I see the next week being a nice slow positive progression for the Gold market. Monday has nothing of course as its Christmas day, thus all markets are suspended, Tuesday's focus is on the Asian Markets, yet there is just the Governor of the Bank of Japan speaking which is looking to have any effect. with explanation about the future direction of their Interest Rates and Monetary policy being hinted at. Therefore this period might be fairly volatile yet the effect on the Gold market I believe shall be minimal. Wednesday is a little bit busier, we have the US Consumer Confidence m/m and US Pending Home Sales. Both forecasts are showing a decline from the previous month, we are seeing a potentially big dip Pending Home Sales, down from 3.5% last month to -0.4% for this month passed. Yet Pending Home Sales aren't that effective on the Dollar ...

The bear movement we have been seeing looks well and truly over, I am surprised by how much it has switched. Yet I don't see $1300 before Christmas, yet it is clear I see strong positive movement. This week has been fucking nuts, pardon my french but wtf happened to crypto. Honestly take a moment to observe the dip, mind-blowing, if you have invested in crypto good luck but this isn't surprising, is the hype eventually slowing but I do feel this dip could help shift Gold's rally further up as investors decide to move money elsewhere, so if this dip in crypto continues, and I don't know if it will continue we could see further rallies for Gold throughout the Christmas and New Year period. So this bull position is looking very positive, buy up people!! Now to look over the past week, Monday indeed was fairly quiet, for releases, with Spot Gold opening at $1253. Yet we saw it only go up, moving above $1260, which I feel was mostly affected by the dip in the Dollar/Yen on...

Once again, apologies for the late article, I finished my final exam for the term today and thus my attention has been elsewhere. This week is looking quieter as we run into Christmas, yet Gold prices look to have recovered and are driving towards $1300. Now of writing, sport gold is holding above $1260, how exciting I know! But anyway, Monday was a quiet day with nothing of interest taking place, today, Tuesday we see the release of US Building Permits m/m, with forecast showing a decline from previous month which is good for the yellow metal, as this should mean the dollar will decline a little yet as always it does depend on how down the actual is compared from previous month. Maybe this will mean we will see a further rally in spot Gold levels today closing high hopefully! Wednesday again is very quiet, we just see Mr Carney speaking in the middle of the day and thus the market as always will be volatile around this period, yet it is only the Financial Stability report and ther...

As we come up to Christmas the markets have been very volatile, I am hearing talk that the Bitcoins hype wave is effecting Gold prices as Bitcoin is seen as this incredible asset and the hype just continues however I doubt this will last and I honestly don't believe it. Looking back at this week it has been very interesting, the weeks opening showed signs of a continue of the bear position, with Spot Gold hitting lows of almost 5 months on Tuesday, falling below $1240 per troy ounce. Which didn't look good for the week end for Gold and then after Tuesday's UK's CPI being above forecast at 3.1% and Mr Carney now having to explain why inflation is so high I really didn't see much hope for any bull movement this week at all. Yet that seemed to be the worst of it, after this Gold hit a short rally to close Tuesday above $1240 at $1243. While Wednesday, a busy day for data release again, I didn't think it would help as there was US inflation figures and consideri...

This week is busy and it honestly looks terrible for Gold, but anyway, we must discuss and work out how to decide how far in what direction it looks to be taking. Monday is quiet thank god with nothing happening worth discussing, being very stable for Gold. Holding at around the $1249-$1250 position so far today, so at least its not going down any further! The upcoming FOMC meeting helped lift God just above $1250 today before currently sitting just below that now. Tuesday we have the UK's CPI yearly release, expected to be at 3.0%, which is the same for last year. Inflation being this high is quite dangerous so it might further damage Gold's position. Later on we have the US's PPI m/m result, which is forecast to be the same as last months 0.4%, highlighting growth yet it is small. While later in the evening we have Draghi speaking at an event in Frankfurt, and thus we will see a very volatile period and I wouldn't be surprised if we see even lower levels hit b...

Apologies for the late post, been away for the last 5 days so haven't had the time to upload anything. But last week again has been incredible, Gold hit a 4 1/2 month low during Friday and the main factors have been this tax reform issue in the US. What we are finding is the closer we come to a deal the more Gold is dipping because the Tax Reform is positive for the Green Back. Furthermore such 'Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue on its gradual path of monetary policy tightening'  are damaging any bull direction. After researching I have found typically December is a bad month for Gold, dipping for the last 10 years in a row, so I think my bull before Christmas may never happen and this is so frustrating, but all I can do is learn.  The data releases of last week were factors in the downward direction but weren't the lead cause of the negative direction. So I am just picking out some of the main releases which really directed the market and can you b...

This week ahead isn't looking good for a bull position, Monday is showing a continuing of last weeks bear trend ending. The only interesting release on Monday is the British Construction PMI which was above forecast at 53.1 compared to 51.2. But the effect seems to have been limited and Monday is looking like a very stable day, holding out around the $1275 range throughout the day. On to Tuesday, and Australia are the busy ones in the morning, with 3 data releases during the early hours. We are seeing the Current Account and Retail Sales m/m and the RBA Rate Statement. The Forecasts for these releases seem very positive, with Current Account being a lower deficit than before and Retail Sales showing growth. These are quite important releases in the region and thus might see a short upward rally, but these could be countered by China's Caixin Services PMI which is released around a similar time and I am not certain but I believe a good result my lead to a dip in Gold because G...

This week just gone was mad, I was so fucking wrong, its quite funny really. But its really interesting to see how I managed to get it so wrong considering I felt confident we would see a continuation of the bull trend that finished the week before, so maybe $1300 could be hit. Man I was wrong, Gold closed on Friday down at $1279, and that was only reached after gold recovered from lows of $1270. I was so baffled so working out what happened is very important. Monday, there really wasn't too much happening, the only mention-able event was US New Homes Sales, which came in miles over forecast at 685k, but the effect of this wasn't huge, Monday did see a strong bull run for Gold and we saw $1298 hit before the US new Homes sales release. Yet even this didn't do too much damage and Gold held out above $1290 before closing at $1294. Moving forward, Tuesday again made me continue to think $1300 will happen. There were numerous speakers discussing important issues throughout ...