Mighty Wednesday.
This week is looking more dramatic, with opportunity for significant market movement very much in play as the US have a range of influential data events that I shall be watching.
Monday is quiet as normal, we have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m which won't lead to much effect on the precious metal if it hits forecast but who knows, at max maybe a short dip but this isn't worth worrying about in my opinion.
There are two events on Tuesday which could cause a slight ruffle in the US and of course the Gold market. In the afternoon, the US release their CPI m/m, expected to hold steady at 0.2%, the same as last month. This is the main event for Tuesday, just after we also have the US's Core CPI m/m. This is worth watching but it doesn't take as much premise as the CPI by itself. Before this the UK release their monthly Unemployment figures, forecast is showing a number of 4.2%, which is the same as last month. I don't feel these should be watched too carefully as much of current movement has been to the Dollars rally.
Wednesday is looking to be the busiest day of the week so far. We have four events from the US which I believe will be of significant value to the yellow metal. First there is the PPI m/m, forecast showing a slight increase, holding positive sentiment. Then all within a short time frame there is the: FOMC Economic Projects, Statement and Fed Funds Rate. The Funds Rate is interesting, we are seeing forecast of a decline in interest rates, falling from 1.75% down to 1.5%. This is biggggg news and could be very useful for the precious metal. These events put together are going to create some fucking mad volatility within the US forex markets and of course the Gold market. But before days end there is one more event from the US which is gonna be interesting, the FOMC Press Conference. This again is dangerous because Press Conference highlights the opportunity or questions after their Economic Projections and Statement from earlier in the day. This makes me believe Wednesday is going to be a good day for trades, looking for some nice entries if Gold continues this holding position in the $1290's.
Everything now is almost anti-climatic to be honest after Wednesday's potentially intense afternoon. But Thursday isn't too bad, got three interesting events in the afternoon period, these are the ECB's Press Conference, US Core Retail and Retail Sales. ECB could be interesting, slight volatility of course but nothing too drastic I reckon, while the US releases are forecast to be pretty dull, either holding or slightly above previous.
Then finishing the week on Friday there are a couple events presented by the BOJ which look interesting. They are releasing their Policy Statement, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, these can easily effect the US/JPY so it will be worth watching out for what could come into play.
Soooooooo, just gonna have a little look at what my basic knowledge of TA could predict. I do believe the $1294 is a testing point, however if it falls below this the next resistance is sitting at the $1290 in my opinion. I have one final at the $1281 mark but I don't think will be seen. This is because the RSI is showing a position at the lower band and the Bollinger Bands highlight a lack of volatility which put with the resistance the US/JPY is facing I believe anything within that region is unlikely. Furthermore we lack significant data releases till Wednesday so much of the Monday's and Tuesday's movement is easier to forecast and thus with the potential substantial change in US interest rates it could allow a break out for the Precious metal on Wednesday. That is why I have shown an arrow breaking the downward trend position.
Peace.
The Naive trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
TradingView, 2018.
Monday is quiet as normal, we have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m which won't lead to much effect on the precious metal if it hits forecast but who knows, at max maybe a short dip but this isn't worth worrying about in my opinion.
There are two events on Tuesday which could cause a slight ruffle in the US and of course the Gold market. In the afternoon, the US release their CPI m/m, expected to hold steady at 0.2%, the same as last month. This is the main event for Tuesday, just after we also have the US's Core CPI m/m. This is worth watching but it doesn't take as much premise as the CPI by itself. Before this the UK release their monthly Unemployment figures, forecast is showing a number of 4.2%, which is the same as last month. I don't feel these should be watched too carefully as much of current movement has been to the Dollars rally.
Wednesday is looking to be the busiest day of the week so far. We have four events from the US which I believe will be of significant value to the yellow metal. First there is the PPI m/m, forecast showing a slight increase, holding positive sentiment. Then all within a short time frame there is the: FOMC Economic Projects, Statement and Fed Funds Rate. The Funds Rate is interesting, we are seeing forecast of a decline in interest rates, falling from 1.75% down to 1.5%. This is biggggg news and could be very useful for the precious metal. These events put together are going to create some fucking mad volatility within the US forex markets and of course the Gold market. But before days end there is one more event from the US which is gonna be interesting, the FOMC Press Conference. This again is dangerous because Press Conference highlights the opportunity or questions after their Economic Projections and Statement from earlier in the day. This makes me believe Wednesday is going to be a good day for trades, looking for some nice entries if Gold continues this holding position in the $1290's.
Everything now is almost anti-climatic to be honest after Wednesday's potentially intense afternoon. But Thursday isn't too bad, got three interesting events in the afternoon period, these are the ECB's Press Conference, US Core Retail and Retail Sales. ECB could be interesting, slight volatility of course but nothing too drastic I reckon, while the US releases are forecast to be pretty dull, either holding or slightly above previous.
Then finishing the week on Friday there are a couple events presented by the BOJ which look interesting. They are releasing their Policy Statement, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, these can easily effect the US/JPY so it will be worth watching out for what could come into play.
Soooooooo, just gonna have a little look at what my basic knowledge of TA could predict. I do believe the $1294 is a testing point, however if it falls below this the next resistance is sitting at the $1290 in my opinion. I have one final at the $1281 mark but I don't think will be seen. This is because the RSI is showing a position at the lower band and the Bollinger Bands highlight a lack of volatility which put with the resistance the US/JPY is facing I believe anything within that region is unlikely. Furthermore we lack significant data releases till Wednesday so much of the Monday's and Tuesday's movement is easier to forecast and thus with the potential substantial change in US interest rates it could allow a break out for the Precious metal on Wednesday. That is why I have shown an arrow breaking the downward trend position.
Peace.
The Naive trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
TradingView, 2018.
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