Data Releases taking priority.
As a result of bigger changes than expected in releases this week in the US meant we saw an interesting change in the value of the precious metal as the week progressed. This is the first time in a while Data releases have held such power in market movement during the week.
Monday was of course subdued, as a result of a few major forex markets being closed and thus change for Gold was limited, opening at the $1297 and closing just a little higher at $1299.
But Tuesday we had our first potential influential release of the week, which was the US CB Consumer Confidence, coming in slightly below forecast at 128.0. But this really didn't do much to the markets and the majority of Golds gains above the $1300 mark were of result of a dip in the US Dollar. By close Gold was still just hovering above $1300.
Wednesday was a lil more interesting, with another important event; the US ADP Non - Farm Employment Change. This came in just under 15k below forecast, at the 178k, but because of a rebound in the US Dollar it didn't do much to enable further gains for the precious metal. But what was worth taking note of was the fact that a slight retrace in the Dollar didn't negativity influence Gold anywhere near as much as I assumed. I felt this could of hinted at maybe Gold finding its holding position at the $1300 mark, but its a weird period as it seems to be flittering around the $1290 - $1300 mark without much push bullish or bearish.
One of the reasons I feel this is, is because the Dollar is sitting around the 109 - 111 region against the Yen and this is offering major resistance which in turn means unless we see significant volume change for Gold there won't be much significant change short-term.
Monday was of course subdued, as a result of a few major forex markets being closed and thus change for Gold was limited, opening at the $1297 and closing just a little higher at $1299.
But Tuesday we had our first potential influential release of the week, which was the US CB Consumer Confidence, coming in slightly below forecast at 128.0. But this really didn't do much to the markets and the majority of Golds gains above the $1300 mark were of result of a dip in the US Dollar. By close Gold was still just hovering above $1300.
Wednesday was a lil more interesting, with another important event; the US ADP Non - Farm Employment Change. This came in just under 15k below forecast, at the 178k, but because of a rebound in the US Dollar it didn't do much to enable further gains for the precious metal. But what was worth taking note of was the fact that a slight retrace in the Dollar didn't negativity influence Gold anywhere near as much as I assumed. I felt this could of hinted at maybe Gold finding its holding position at the $1300 mark, but its a weird period as it seems to be flittering around the $1290 - $1300 mark without much push bullish or bearish.
One of the reasons I feel this is, is because the Dollar is sitting around the 109 - 111 region against the Yen and this is offering major resistance which in turn means unless we see significant volume change for Gold there won't be much significant change short-term.
So we see during Thursday trading, volume for Gold Futures just didn't happen but this may be due to a lack of data releases during Thursday trading, who knows, just gotta see what happens next.
Friday was the big boy day for releases, the US ADP Non - Farm Employment Change holding significant value and then also the US's Unemployment Rate. These both came in better than expected, with Non - Farm showing a very positive sentiment for Job Changes, 34k above forecast. Then the Unemployment Rate fell slightly, aiding further Dollar gains and of course thus leading to Dollar gains. By Friday close Spot Gold had fallen to $1293 and I don't believe there are positive signs for next week.
To further emphasise this point, we saw the USD/JPY hit the Upper Barrier of the RSI and then fall back within the safe region without too much of a dip. So I wouldn't be surprised if next week we do see further gains for the US Dollar and thus a more extreme dip for the yellow metal.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018.
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