THE NAIVE TRADER

Well, fuck me what a week, in terms of data Gold shouldn't of reacted the way it did, but damn this shit dipping, hitting $1245 before slightly rebounding. I am going to leave data releases because there is no point, right now we are in a weird place so we need to be careful. I thought the downward trend was showing a bounce around the $1260 mark before a retrace as the RSI and BB showed potential for this. Yet I was wrong and I like it, shows how much to learn there is.  Much of the dip has been the strength of the Dollar, and I keep denying the power of it, it is currently holding at the 110 level against the yen. I believed it would hit this but somehow there is sufficient buying power to keeping it around this level. The bull run of the Dollar almost seems too long and I do reckon long-term it would be a good short. Nothing about the US economy looks good from an economic perspective, so we have this front which is just being held by the belief the US Dollar won't...

Opening this week on Monday we don't have anything I see having much consequence however Tuesday does indeed have one event I believe might create a little movement in the precious metal and the USD/JPY markets. This event is the US's CB Consumer Confidence, showing a slight dip from last month and will be worth watching. Wednesday has the US's Core Durable Goods Order, this is showing a dip which I believe shall create some movement, a 0.4% decline from last month is expected. But before this we have the BOE's governor Mr Carney speaking, doubling any effect on Gold but shall be worth paying attention too just in case. Thursday is looking to hold the most important piece of data this week which could effect the direction of the precious metal and USD/JPY market. This is the US's Final GDP q/q, expecting to hold firm on previous quarter at 2.2%. So if this does come in on forecast it will help rally the Dollar further, and thus might shift Gold even further d...

Another week coming to an end and it has been interesting as always, Gold actually broke my bottom horizontal resistance and is holding below, genuinely so surprised, showing you really never can be certain! Monday was a pretty stable day for the precious metal, holding around the the $1280 level throughout the day without any data releases to create much shifts within the markets. Tuesday saw a bit more movement as we had the US Building Permits and the ECB President Draghi speaking, as expected there was volatility. Building Permits came in 500k below forecast, which helped reduce the negative consequence of the continued rally in the US Dollar. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday just saw the continued decline for Gold, falling in to the $1260 mark after more bullish movement for the US Dollar, so it will be interesting to see how far this dip goes before a rebound or maybe we won't see this. Next week I am going to spend some more time looking into the major forex markets and...

After Friday's sell-off this week incoming is going to be very interesting, we have numerous releases which could strongly influence market direct for the precious metal. Monday's main focus will be on the ECB President Draghi speaking, expecting volatility in a few of the major forex markets, especially the EUR/USD and the cable. But looking at the sell off of last week and the volatility witnessed, Monday could be a busy day for Gold. We might see it fall further as the RSI highlights with the precious metal neither in the Upper or Lower Bands in a shorter time period, but when expanded into a longer time period we see the precious metal well under the Lower band. So I expect a turbulent day to say the least. Tuesday is a lil busier, again we have Draghi speaking and the the US release their monthly Building Permits. This will be worth watching as any deviation from Forecast does create a surprising amount of movement for Gold.  Draghi is going for a triple ...

Right, so this week ended up being pretty interesting with Fridays drastic drop showing that anything can happen as Gold went below recent lows. This is something which I didn't see happening even when looking at the markets on Wednesday afternoon! Monday was a quiet day as expected. Gold floated around a little, closing at the $1300 mark with no significant releases taking place. Tuesday did have a couple of events worth watching, we had the US's CPI and Core CPI monthly results but both were very similar to forecast and thus the effect on Gold was limited. The precious metal fell slightly throughout the day, closing at the $1294 mark. Wednesday was the busiest day for releases, with five events worth watching in the US. We had their PPI m/m results which were above forecast at 0.5%. Then the Fed decided to lower interest rates from 2.0% down to 1.75%, and this is substantial news and put with other positive sentiment coming out of the FOMC projections and Press conference...

This is the first time I am just writing based on completely on TA, I feel now is a good time to focus on this. I have picked a monthly chart to allow better long-term analysis. We are reaching a breaking point, something I picked on in my previous article and it look bearish to be honest. This is just based on looking at the charts downward trend we have witnessed for a few months now after the April high but TA is pushing doubt into whether I believe this looks likely. RSI is gaining, going forward to the upper bands after a strong rebound. Of writing this the RSI is at 65. But my Bearish belief is questioned with the potential here for a major breakout, yet volume is nothing similar to what we saw during the early period of 2018 and that is why I feel it would be hard to see a strong rally for the precious metal anytime soon. Yet the Bollinger Bands highlights Gold is now regaining slightly after hitting the Lower Band, this could then mean we see a slow burner, with a rush...

This week is looking more dramatic, with opportunity for significant market movement very much in play as the US have a range of influential data events that I shall be watching. Monday is quiet as normal, we have the UK's Manufacturing Production m/m which won't lead to much effect on the precious metal if it hits forecast but who knows, at max maybe a short dip but this isn't worth worrying about in my opinion. There are two events on Tuesday which could cause a slight ruffle in the US and of course the Gold market. In the afternoon, the US release their CPI m/m, expected to hold steady at 0.2%, the same as last month. This is the main event for Tuesday, just after we also have the US's Core CPI m/m. This is worth watching but it doesn't take as much premise as the CPI by itself. Before this the UK release their monthly Unemployment figures, forecast is showing a number of 4.2%, which is the same as last month. I don't feel these should be watched too care...

This week was actually as expected for the first time in a while as nothing really happened. Neither a strong bull or bear trend was witnessed within the Gold market. Data releases were of course subdued and thus much of potential movement is focused around fluctuations in the USD/JPY market, but there was nothing huge witnessed. The events this week which were looking to be most influential were Tuesday's US ISM Manufacturing PMI, then US Weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday and finally on Friday, we had the G7 taking priority. Looking at the releases, both US events were very close to expected and thus literally no movement was witnessed. While the G7 didn't really lead into much consequence for the yellow metal. Looking at some TA and the only thing that did surprise me was Gold breaking above the $1300 this week, before retreating of course. But the $1290 holding position is seeming to be more and more important, with any break below showing that a downtrend to bel...

Bit late, apologies, been away but back and lets have a look at what this week can offer us in the markets! I am going to not really bother with Monday, nothing of excitement in my opinion and not looking to see any directional change. KDJ and RSI both showing the precious metal sitting within the boundaries, neither in the upper or lower bands and this is why as well I don't see much happening for the rest of the day. Tuesday again is fairly subdued, with numerous releases yet little of concern to the Gold market. The main event I shall be paying attention to shall be the the US's ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, forecasting to come in slightly above last month but this should only result in the $1-$5 change at max in my opinion. Another event is the ECB's President Mr Draghi speaking, this is more of personal interest and I doubt this will have any influence on the Gold market. Next is Wednesday which is still showing little signs of life, there is really nothing I see hav...

As a result of bigger changes than expected in releases this week in the US meant we saw an interesting change in the value of the precious metal as the week progressed. This is the first time in a while Data releases have held such power in market movement during the week. Monday was of course subdued, as a result of a few major forex markets being closed and thus change for Gold was limited, opening at the $1297 and closing just a little higher at $1299. But Tuesday we had our first potential influential release of the week, which was the US CB Consumer Confidence, coming in slightly below forecast at 128.0. But this really didn't do much to the markets and the majority of Golds gains above the $1300 mark were of result of a dip in the US Dollar. By close Gold was still just hovering above $1300. Wednesday was a lil more interesting, with another important event; the US ADP Non - Farm Employment Change. This came in just under 15k below forecast, at the 178k, but because of...