Could be the bottom.

This week marks the beginning of the new month and we aren’t short of items to discuss in regard to data releases later in the week. But let’s have a look at what the first few subdued days of week have to say before we reach Thursday and Friday which is where much of the action is.

Monday, we have the UK’s Manufacturing PMI, something which won’t do much to the markets we follow but nonetheless it is important, forecast is showing a slight dip from previous and thus is much more of an issue for the cable market. But not looking too much into it. Later, on Monday we have the US’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which much the UK’s release earlier is showing little deviation from the previous release so I expect a small consequence on the USD/JPY and Gold market.

Tuesday is quieter than Monday, with the only event I see having much effect on the major markets will be the UK’s Construction PMI, but it has even less deviation that the previous day! So I expect no consequences on the Gold market on Tuesday as a result of data releases and that is actually it for Tuesday really.

Mid-week and we still lack big events, again another event from the UK, their Service PMI, only a 0.1 deviation is expected so once again I won’t really be watching this.

Thursday and Friday are where things actually start to heat up, the US have 3 events I shall be watching. These are the: ADP Non-Farm Employment change (forecast up 12k from previous), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (only slight change expected) and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. I am looking heavily at the Employment Change as positive results from this always show strong progression for the economy and can strongly shift any market. FOMC Minutes could create a lil volatility but probs not much more.

Friday has 3 events which always come out together monthly, the US’s: Average Hourly Earning, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. Average Hourly and Unemployment Rate not looking too dramatic, both holding steady at their previous months results. However, the Unemployment rate is holding at 3.8% which is mighty positive and this will push the Dollar quite heavily I believe if hit. The Non-Farm Change is showing a 23k dip in the forecast, which is again significant and thus might counter any positive results from the other data releases.

Friday is looking dangerous and I believe some of the biggest market movement for the precious metal will come either Thursday or Friday if just based on Data releases. But we need to pay close attention to the Dollar as it has been wiping the value of Gold out throughout the past couple of week and don’t know where it will stop as the resistance levels I thought we would see have been constantly broken. With the $1250 level broken I am wondering how much lower it could go, entry still looking precarious for a bull position however long-term I still believe it thoroughly.