The Week Ahead: Dip still present.
Lets have a lil look at what to expect from this upcoming week in the Gold market and what implications the bullish US Dollar could potentially have.
Monday is pretty quiet with nothing substantial, there are a couple things that could be worth watching such as New Zealands quarterly Retail Sales and the US's FOMC Member Bostic Speaking, but movement as a result shall be limited, anything above a $5 shift would be surprising. This is why I feel the movement I have shown below might be in play. Currently RSI is holding steady, gaining slightly before potentially hitting the Upper Band region. Furthermore it is clear volume has been falling further during Friday trading so it could place pressure on a retraction, forcing further downwards movement for the precious metal.
But Monday could see fairly nice gains, as the testing region for a bounce is the $1297-$1300 section. Then after further falls could be seen depending on how much the US Dollar continues to gain during the next week. After implementing a horizontal at the May low position I feel the bottom for Gold to rebound back above the $1300 region will be around the $1286 region.
Tuesday again is quiet and we have only one event worth watching, this is the UK's Inflation Report Hearing. This will of course create some volatility and could lead to some serious shifting for the cable market during the hearing. But the precious metal should have little to no knock - on consequences of this, but we shall see!
Mid-week has 1 pretty nice event I shall pay attention to, it is the FOMC Minutes release, showing opinions for current interest rates in the US, potentially highlighting what future interest rates could be. If we see potential for interest rates falling, which I doubt as the US Economy is pumping hard and interest rates have been recently changed we would see some big change for Gold. Helping it regain much lost ground due to the continuing rallying US Dollar.
Thursday has a few smaller events, we have the: BOE Governor Mr Carney speaking in the morning, then ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Unemployment Claims and then Mr Carney is speaking again in the late evening. All events aren't looking too uncertain, so the consequences on Gold again should be limited but you never know, a bomb shell could be dropped.
I feel the lack of substantial events this week are really playing into the hands of the Dollar, helping it gain as long as volume holds, but further to this RSI for long-term Dollar is holding completely within the brackets adding further fuel to the bullish market sentiment in the US Dollar.
The last day of the trading week for forex and the commodities is interesting, we have the US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, showing a 0.4% increase in forecast. Then later US Fed Chair Powell shall be speaking about the Future of CB's, these two events could stir the pot for sure, market movement is looking likely and gains in Durable Goods might push Gold below the $1290 mark before week close, who knows?
So, good luck out this week, I do feel we haven't seen the bottom for this bear run, and depending on data results and volume flowing through the precious metal anything below $1290 is completely possible.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018
Tradingview, 2018.
Monday is pretty quiet with nothing substantial, there are a couple things that could be worth watching such as New Zealands quarterly Retail Sales and the US's FOMC Member Bostic Speaking, but movement as a result shall be limited, anything above a $5 shift would be surprising. This is why I feel the movement I have shown below might be in play. Currently RSI is holding steady, gaining slightly before potentially hitting the Upper Band region. Furthermore it is clear volume has been falling further during Friday trading so it could place pressure on a retraction, forcing further downwards movement for the precious metal.
But Monday could see fairly nice gains, as the testing region for a bounce is the $1297-$1300 section. Then after further falls could be seen depending on how much the US Dollar continues to gain during the next week. After implementing a horizontal at the May low position I feel the bottom for Gold to rebound back above the $1300 region will be around the $1286 region.
Tuesday again is quiet and we have only one event worth watching, this is the UK's Inflation Report Hearing. This will of course create some volatility and could lead to some serious shifting for the cable market during the hearing. But the precious metal should have little to no knock - on consequences of this, but we shall see!
Mid-week has 1 pretty nice event I shall pay attention to, it is the FOMC Minutes release, showing opinions for current interest rates in the US, potentially highlighting what future interest rates could be. If we see potential for interest rates falling, which I doubt as the US Economy is pumping hard and interest rates have been recently changed we would see some big change for Gold. Helping it regain much lost ground due to the continuing rallying US Dollar.
Thursday has a few smaller events, we have the: BOE Governor Mr Carney speaking in the morning, then ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Unemployment Claims and then Mr Carney is speaking again in the late evening. All events aren't looking too uncertain, so the consequences on Gold again should be limited but you never know, a bomb shell could be dropped.
I feel the lack of substantial events this week are really playing into the hands of the Dollar, helping it gain as long as volume holds, but further to this RSI for long-term Dollar is holding completely within the brackets adding further fuel to the bullish market sentiment in the US Dollar.
The last day of the trading week for forex and the commodities is interesting, we have the US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, showing a 0.4% increase in forecast. Then later US Fed Chair Powell shall be speaking about the Future of CB's, these two events could stir the pot for sure, market movement is looking likely and gains in Durable Goods might push Gold below the $1290 mark before week close, who knows?
So, good luck out this week, I do feel we haven't seen the bottom for this bear run, and depending on data results and volume flowing through the precious metal anything below $1290 is completely possible.
Peace.
The Naive Trader.
Forex Factory, 2018.
IG.com, 2018
Tradingview, 2018.
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