THE NAIVE TRADER

This week opens on a Tuesday to be honest, with the US and the UK both having Bank Holidays on the Monday. Thus lets begin for the week ahead from Tuesday on-wards. Our main focus for Tuesday is the US's Consumer Confidence, which is expected to come in just slightly below last months result. This really shouldn't do much, doubt anything more than a $5 shift, then later we have the New Zealands Financial Stability Report. This as well will result in a small amount of volatility at max so Tuesday could end up being a a dull day. But looking at last week with Trump dropping that bombshell and dropping out of the talks with main man Kim, we know anything is possible #geopolitics. Wednesday has a few events worth watching and thus we might seen some significant volatility in the Gold market. The main two I am going to pay close attention too are the US's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and their Prelim GDP. ADP is showing a slight decline, forecast is expecting around a 20k ...

Once again, we have had a turbulent week, Gold hitting new lows then rebounding as a result of geo-political unease, and data releases, so lets see what exact events have been major players in directing Gold's movement this week. Monday as expected was a dangerous day for Gold, analysis showed clear potential for a further decline, and with the lack of data releases throughout the day Gold was at the mercy of the Dollar gains. The precious metal did indeed fall below the $1290 barrier I thought we would see, and throughout the day it fell even further, almost to the 2nd resistance point at $1281 before regaining ground as Dollar gains cooled. It does look like Monday was the low and since then we have seen steady gains and even mid-term this is starting to look bullish. Tuesday was a quiet day in the end, Gold hovered around the $1290 position throughout, closing at $1292. We did have the UK's Inflation Report hearing but the knock-on consequence to the Gold market was very...

Lets have a lil look at what to expect from this upcoming week in the Gold market and what implications the bullish US Dollar could potentially have. Monday is pretty quiet with nothing substantial, there are a couple things that could be worth watching such as New Zealands quarterly Retail Sales and the US's FOMC Member Bostic Speaking, but movement as a result shall be limited, anything above a $5 shift would be surprising. This is why I feel the movement I have shown below might be in play. Currently RSI is holding steady, gaining slightly before potentially hitting the Upper Band region. Furthermore it is clear volume has been falling further during Friday trading so it could place pressure on a retraction, forcing further downwards movement for the precious metal. But Monday could see fairly nice gains, as the testing region for a bounce is the $1297-$1300 section. Then after further falls could be seen depending on how much the US Dollar continues to gain during the n...

Back and I love it, this dip is the excitement we have needed in the Gold market, I have now eventually manged to implement my first chart, I was fully baffled for time trying to sort this but it just makes explaining movements in the Gold and USD/JPY market so much easier for everyone including myself, anywayyyyyy. This chart shows Golds movement over the last week or so, and there has indeed been some substantial shifting. This dip isn't completely surprising, using the RSI below we can see on Monday Gold was hugely overbought, going above the 80 mark on the RSI and thus a correction was imminent. Monday had little releases worth watching and the lack of substantial fluctuation isn't surprising, by close Gold was down to $1313. Tuesday for releases was much busier, we had two big events from the US which were their Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, both monthly. These results were both slightly underwhelming, each coming in at 0.3%. But the consequences on the precio...

Another week beginning and even more potentially exciting movement for the precious metal this week as the Dollar may continues its upwards trend we have seen for the last few weeks. Apart from bank holidays the data releases on this coming Monday are the quietest I have ever seen. We have three events throughout the day, but there is only one that could potentially cause a little bit of action and that is the FOMC member Mester speaking early in the morning. But this really shouldn't do much to markets and tomorrow is indeed looking very quiet indeed. Tuesday is much busier and there are two important events coming out of the US. These are Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m, Core is showing a 0.3% incline in forecast which shall be significant if held, and Retail Sales are forecast for a slight decline. The UK have their Inflation Report Hearing which will be worth watching, it will of course create volatility in the cable market and could cause a slight movement fo...

So lets see what has happened throughout this week and what directional movement we have seen. Monday was a quiet day for releases as expected, we did indeed have two FOMC Members speaking yet neither created much direction change. Much of Monday's fluctuations was as of a result of the the Trade discussions between the US and China about the trade deficits and surpluses either side is experiencing. This helped the precious metal gain ground during the morning period before dropping back quite substantially, by close on Monday Gold was sitting around $3 from open. Yup, not very exhilarating. Tuesday was heavily influenced by the main man himself speaking in the evening, Mr Trump. The main focus of this was surrounding the Iran deal which he reportedly was going to 'withdraw from'. Something which produced significant reaction in markets, this was indeed positive for the precious metal, helping it hold fairly steady as the Dollar continued up to 'new highs of 2018...

This week opens with a quiet day on Monday, with just a few FOMC Members speaking throughout the day. These will be worth watching as we might see hints about potential interest rate changes in the near future. However that is actually about it for Monday! Tuesday is indeed busier, we have the Fed Chair Powell speaking in the morning, where he will be discussing 'monetary policy influence' throughout the world. This will in-turn be a very volatile period and we could easily see the precious metal bounce around by upwards of $5 throughout the speech. Apart from this Tuesday isn't too busy, could be worth watching the Australian Annual Budget Release and New Zealand's' Inflation Report but I do doubt much consequence on Gold will be seen as a result of these. We have another interesting day Wednesday, with a few releases worth watching and an event or so which could do some damage to the Gold market. The US Release their PPI m/m, showing a slight decline from last...

So, this week has been interesting as we have seen the precious metal continue its decline. The fall was expected and I did believe we would of seen a bigger fall than what was actually witnessed throughout this week. Monday saw almost a $10 dip in the value of Gold, falling as the Dollar continued its gains. In terms of releases, we had the US Core PCE Price Index which came in bang on forecast. At the same time the US also released their Personal Spending m/m releases, which like the PCE Index, came in bang on forecast creating little effect on the yellow metal. By close Gold was down to $1315 against the Dollar. We saw the lowest prices of the week for Gold during Tuesday's trading period, which was as expected nothing to do with data releases but solely the US Dollars gains. Yet, further to this as a result of the Dollar going positive for the first time this year we saw even more of a decline in Gold! By mid-day the precious metal hit $1301 before rebounding and closing at...