THE NAIVE TRADER

Looking at the market on a 4 hourly time frame there is potential for the current resistance to be broken. The green of the Ichimoku cloud illustrates the bullishness of the market on this time frame. Furthermore, when using the stoch RSI its clear the market is returning from the oversold position. These indicators offer support for a potential for a long entry if the 110.637 position is broken soon, which could be likely as the market hovers around the resistance more sell positions are bought up and thus can allow with sufficient volume for a potential clean break to a position we haven't seen broken this year, around and above the 111.109 price. TradingView, 2019.

On the 21st I was looking at holding a short position and believed the dip would continue, what is interesting is that after a slight gain we have seen the drawback and the 109.835 resistance position is looking more powerful than I first believed. We see the currency pair is fluctuating and holding quite happily in the mid-range of the 108.670 - 109.835 resistant area's. This is interesting as the RSI and the BB don't hint at much dipping or diving at the moment. Volume has fallen a little recently and although buying is continue I don't know if there is sufficient volume to help the pair gain momentum to break the higher resistance till at least next week.  Peace. TradingView, 2019.

Bitcoin is something I have stated before having an interest in and that of course continues, but trying to understand trading it is tough. The market is so volatile and thus there is huge opportunity but of course huge risk. I feel I stand more of an investor for this market, my trading skills no where near up to scratch to play this game! But anyway, I thought I would have a look at what is going on, not saying I will enter but just looking at where short term the BTC/USD market is moving towards. I am loving the horizontals atm, as they are just so useful when comprehending where potential resistance regions are within the market. The sentiment online is continuing to be quite bearish with a number of people highlighting the lack of breakouts to either fall below the 3k or above the 5k in the recent weeks. This I believe shows that the market is quite flat and thus maybe big cheeses are beginning to accumulate as the market continues to hold within in the 3550-3650 region. I...

So, thought I would have a little gander at the Pound. Comparing this to the USD for entry on a weekly basis does looking precarious but interesting, my knowledge of the Ichimoku cloud is weak but I believe that trading within it is fearless due to the volatility. Thus creating a slightly fast passed potential movement. I reckon the resistance we are looking at for the upper is 1.30 for the next week or so. Yet I don't know if this is the direction we will be seeing, the RSI is highlighting the market is returning from an overbought position, and looking to continue downwards. This potential sell off is further illustrated by the increasing sell volume within the market. Therefore I reckon next potential bounce point/resistance area is the 1.26789 point because of previous resistance areas that can be seen over the last few months. I wouldn't bother entering here personally because of the potential flip and lack of real opportunity but high risk. I will be looking to wait ...

Back and a new year and once again I have been slacking for the last month due to exams and laziness of course. But back on and hopefully this time I can keep some consistency. Over the Christmas period we have seen exciting excessive movement in the US forex market, with a heavy dip falling substantially from the upward trend we have been seeing for the majority of 2018. Looking at the dip its something which does look quite surprising and I reckon the inability for Trump to get his way leading to the longest lockdown in US history taking place has for sure affected confidence in the US dollar. The fall did test the yearly low for a minute, the 104 region, pretty damn impressive but did retract almost straight away. This position does look of interest, I have drawn in where I reckon the next resistance level is, the top end of 109. I believe this looks realistic as shown by the 3 arrows highlighting what I reckon are resistance levels which have been hit over the last 8 mont...

In my last post I discussed the potential for the market to retrace towards the 113 level and it does seem s though this direction is continuing, and therefore I am going to discuss what further decline I believe might be seen in the next few weeks.  The other day I can't lie things weren't looking good as the market continued upwards and hit the next resistance barrier of the upper ends of 113. But the retrace did happen and if you were to have entered and stuck it out well I guess you got some dolla from it if you now closed your position. What is interesting now is how far it will fall, the 113.008 was were I would of taken most of my profit to be honest if I entered and to my surprise we have fallen further with no holding position at the bottom of 113. After breaking the resistance the market is now faulting on the border og my long-term trend line I put in. This doesn't necessarily mean anything(as I could of drawn it wrong) but I believe it highlights the potent...

University has been taking up more time that I keep expecting which is creating constant frustrations for me in order to find time to look at market movement. But now I have a lil bit of freeedon so gotta have a look at the markets! The USD/JPY market is looking juicy, an opening of a short position could be a motive and this is why I believe so. We have as expected seen the growth expected after the bottoming out in the stoch RSI in early October with the market bouncing off the high 111 resistance zone. But now we have reached the top of the stoch RSI where we have seen a drawback in previous months at the 99/100 region emphasising the uncertainty for further gains without any dip. I am looking at not much further gains for the next week or so at least, a short is looking enticing, with the dip to the bottom of 113 looking likely which is where I reckon the next resistance zone is going to be. Yet depending on how much the dip effects investor confidence we may see further draw...