THE NAIVE TRADER

Since my last post the USD/JPY has seen drastic change which is fascinating as ever. I didn't think we would see a drawback till the mid 114 level I must admit even though the stoch RSI was heavy on the overbought level but anyway, live and learn! So now we are again in a precarious position, looking just at technical, we have been seeing the currency pair in a solid upward trend testing the upper levels of but rebounding off the upper and lower channels through the last few months. Now once again the lower trend line looks to be tested, the reason why I think it could be tested is because the lower bounds of the Bollinger Bands haven't been touched and the market still looks in a downward progress. Yet countering this we are reaching the point in the RSI where its the bottom of the oversold section, so a rebound is expected. The opposite was seen when we hit the top in terms of what was seen in recent times over the last few months and that I why I don't think we wil...

We saw the currency pair break through the resistance fairly easily, with much less drawback than I originally expected. Buy volume still seems very solid with confidence in the Dollar clearly holding well, which is surprising as I thought markets would react to this RSI position with a drawback at least for a short while, maybe even holding a horizontal position for this week or so. However clearly not, RSI is still cooking, almost hitting the 100 mark on the indicator, showing that the market is looking strongly overbought for the current period. What is interesting though, is that even with the currency pair being strongly overbought just looking at resistance levels, I don't expect much dip until we reach the mid 114 level. This would be impressive, highlighting just how strong the US dollar is right now, as investor confidence has clearly grown over the last few months. I believe that it will hold at the level before much further gains. this bullish rally needs some tim...

This looks like we have interesting position for the USD/JPY market. Since mid March's low this market has seen strong gains without facing substantial drawbacks down below the 110 region. What is interesting now is that this bullish momentum is once again coming to a crossroads. We can see where before this position was rejected, around the 113.155 level in July. But now we are back with strong green candles holding for the last week or so highlighting the potential for further gains to be made during this extra bullish month. However there is reason to believe this progression might be coming to a halt based just on techincal analysis. Below you can see a chart with the Stoch RSI included. I believe this of interesting because it is sitting well within the upper bands and has gone above the 97 mark where we last saw a drawback during this bull run. I also must add that the Bollinger Bands upper band as well are constantly being touched throughout which offers the opi...

Thought I would do a fairly quick update on my current opinion on the market, just focusing on the USD/JPY market for the time being. I drew a couple of horizontals a while ago, looking at where I believed the market would find resistance and potentially bounce and if not, where it would continue down to. I felt short-term, looking at the 3hourly chart the 110.755 was going to offer better resistance considering at the touch point the RSI was oversold. But it looks like the pull back was further than expected, we can see from the RSI that ts is oversold, currently sitting at 27, but because of this not being hugely out the range and the fact the next resistance is looking at the 110.101 I do believe we might see further falling. Yet a contrasting point is that the Bollinger Bands show the candle falling below the lower band and of course this typically results in some kind of rebound depending on the magnitude of volume change over the next period. I wouldn't be looking ...

BTC has been fluttering around this $6500 range which has become increasingly frustrating to be honest. There have been a few issues causing this, such as the ETF bullshit, causing insane levels of volatility. For example today we saw a candle with $7000 hit before quickly falling back to the $6500 region. Just from reading others opinions online people still seem bearish with potential movement down below $6000 seeming realistic from numerous respectable sources in my opinion. Thus my entries into alt's are being held off for the moment even though I really should do my own research. Anyway, this is where we look like a breakout might happen, lol jk who really knows. As stated above this stupid fucking $6000-$6500 range has creating chaos, with leverage traders on Bitmex getting wrecked on their x100 levels lol. But this is not the point of why I am writing this, I want to explain some of my interests and why I have the audacity to talk about it. Currently I am watching two...

Eventually, I am back, been away for just under a month so haven't really had the time to produce any updates on the markets I have been watching. I thought I would do a quick update on my opinion on the USD/JPY market and where I believe the direction could be. At the moment it seems for August we have seen some consolidation within the market, holding within what seems to be a tight boundary in the 110 region. As of now looking at the Bollinger Band positioning it looks as though we might bounce off the resistance level around the 110.272, but as always this is just a guesstimate based on where resistance seems to have been holding for the last few weeks. But further to this point, the BB does show the candles touching the bottom of the BB area with a negative candle still in play, thus making it look as though we will have at least another downward movement ( probably small) before any further upward gains. The RSI shows neither top or bottom regions touched and thus a d...

So another reason for slacking on the uploads is my personal interest in another newer market everyone now knows of, the crypto sphere. But for the last few months with the market bearish it offered good entry and thus I have become more and more engaged, as just more is happening that forex and commodities in terms of volatility and news in my opinion. The opportunity to explore a new sector and at worse learn even if it all goes to shit is something I wanted to pursue So the reason I decided to produce this lil post was coz of the breakout that was witnessed a few days ago offering the potential for an eventual rebound and push the market into a bull trend for the near future. The chart isn't anything special but the downward trend was broken literally 2 days ago, and broke the $6800 level of resistance(I know this chart is in pounds) which many didn't see as possible for anytime in the near future. But furthermore there is the belief the upcoming ETF for bitcoin mig...