THE NAIVE TRADER

This week has been filled with Geo-Political tensions resulting in huge volatility throughout the week, and making much of the data releases almost irrelevant on certain days as statements made by the main man himself Mr Trump cause chaos. Monday was quiet as expected, there were only two releases worth watching which was the Canadian Business Outlook Survey and the UK's Halifax HPI m/m. The Canadian result had little influence on the market but Halifax's HPI was pretty different, much stronger than expected, coming in at 1.5%. But this really didn't do much too the market, I was actually surprised by this, but it really does show how small an impact the cable actually has on the Gold market. By close on Monday we saw a $3 rise from open, closing at $1336. We did actually have one big event Tuesday, which was the US's PPI m/m and there was also their Core PPI which was worth watching. The PPI came in above forecast by 0.2%, which is high, but because of Mr Trump we ...

Monday's open is looking pretty anti-dramatic, with numerous releases but only a couple worth watching. We have the UK's Halifax HPI m/m result, which is forecast to be a small dip from last month, yet I doubt there will be much movement witnessed in the forex markets as a direct result of this. Later the Canadian Outlook Business Survey, this should be approached carefully as this can directly influence the US Dollar if much uncertainty is created because of unexpected results. We have one potential big mover on Tuesday, with the US's PPI m/m results, which is forecast to have a 0.1% decline from last month. This might cause some movement for Gold, I expect maybe a quick rise of $2-$5 once released but this does depend how much actual varies from the forecast. At the same time the US are releasing their Core PPI m/m, doubt it will influence markets at all, a small change in the US/JPY at max. Wednesday is a busier day with three significant events and numerous smaller ...

The week has seen quite a volatile change, and as expected a decline in the precious metal as the dollar begins to recover from the long bear position we have been seeing since the start of the year. So lets have a little look at what this week had to offer. Mondays only worthy watcher in my opinion was the US's ISM Manufacturing PMI, this came in below forecast and actually allowed Gold to stop the dip seen on Thursday of last week. This put extra pressure on the Dollar, forcing it lower and meaning by close Gold was slightly up from open at $1340 by close. Tuesday showed in my opinion that Gold really has hit a top around the $1340 region. There wasn't anything drastic in regards to releases yet the pressure of the Dollar potentially rebounding as started to stop any further growth. We did have the UK's Manufacturing PMI but as expected actual was very similar to forecast and thus little effect was seen on the Cable market. Throughout Tuesday Gold dipped slowly ar...

This week does actually open Monday, I originally assumed all countries were on a bank holiday, but the capitalists never stop so the US market is open. Lets have a look and see where the potential market opportunities lie! Monday, we just have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expecting a small decline from last month yet still showing growth. This could be a big factor is directional change in Mondays market. Worth watching will be the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index, we are expecting growth, with forecast just above the Index holding value. This is quite influential and could further aid any directional change we will see in Gold on Monday. Tuesday is a busier day, we have numerous releases worth watching, yet there is nothing which I think will lead to substantial directional change for the precious metal. We have the Australian Cash Rate, expected to hold at 1.5%, this will have little influence on forex markets and thus little implications on the Gold market. Later on the UK r...

We are drawing to an end of a quieter week in regards to actual market data releases, yet much of the focus was on constantly reoccurring US verse North Korea Nuclear pickle. So depending on how this continued to play out, it would in my opinion take hold of market direction for this week as we saw with the constant fluctations in last weeks forex and commodities markets. Monday was quiet, we saw little movement for the Gold market throughout the day, helped mainly by the retreating dollar falling below 104 against the yen! This allowed Gold to continue its rally, reaching $1353 by Monday's close. Tuesday had one big release worth following, we had the US CB Consumer Confidence Confidence, this came in substantially under forecast at 127.7. This dip should of caused quite some extra push in the Golds rally but as a result of the potential Chinese and US Trade negotiates actually taking place it completely dominated any release throughout the day. The positive news for world pea...

This is a shortened week, with the Easter weekend meaning the markets shall be closed on Friday and Monday, yet this doesn't mean the week can't be exciting. So as always, lets break down some of the keys events taking place. Monday's a very quiet day, with only four releases. But we have two events worth watching, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Members Dudley and Mester shall be speaking in the evening period. These events aren't too extravagant, yet both do have a discussion section during the meetings which could lead to hints surrounding future interest rate decisions, so pay close attention! Tuesday we have a focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence, which will show what households believe about future economic progress, including 'labour availability' and 'business conditions'(Forex Factory, 2018). The forecast is highlighting a continuing progression, with expectation showing a 1 point rise in the index. This is important and should...

This has been an interesting week for Gold, actually slightly rebounding and holding above $1300. Which I am pretty surprised about, so lets have a look and what may have caused the movement we have seen this week. Monday's main focus was on the G20 Meeting, we saw the main sector of this was based on the lack of regulation for crypto-curriences, which is very good for that fast growing sector. Yet apart from this, information which could effect the Gold market were minimal. This meant on Monday we saw quite a lot of volatility however the precious metal did rise, gaining around $4 throughout the day to close at $1316. Tuesday was another fairly uneventful day, we saw the main focus once again on the G20 but we also had the UK's yearly CPI. But for this to have any substantial influence over the Gold market we would of needed a 0.3%-0.4% variation from the forecast. Yet this wasn't witnessed, and actual came in just below forecast at 2.7%. I don't believe this had a...