THE NAIVE TRADER

We are drawing to an end of a quieter week in regards to actual market data releases, yet much of the focus was on constantly reoccurring US verse North Korea Nuclear pickle. So depending on how this continued to play out, it would in my opinion take hold of market direction for this week as we saw with the constant fluctations in last weeks forex and commodities markets. Monday was quiet, we saw little movement for the Gold market throughout the day, helped mainly by the retreating dollar falling below 104 against the yen! This allowed Gold to continue its rally, reaching $1353 by Monday's close. Tuesday had one big release worth following, we had the US CB Consumer Confidence Confidence, this came in substantially under forecast at 127.7. This dip should of caused quite some extra push in the Golds rally but as a result of the potential Chinese and US Trade negotiates actually taking place it completely dominated any release throughout the day. The positive news for world pea...

This is a shortened week, with the Easter weekend meaning the markets shall be closed on Friday and Monday, yet this doesn't mean the week can't be exciting. So as always, lets break down some of the keys events taking place. Monday's a very quiet day, with only four releases. But we have two events worth watching, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Members Dudley and Mester shall be speaking in the evening period. These events aren't too extravagant, yet both do have a discussion section during the meetings which could lead to hints surrounding future interest rate decisions, so pay close attention! Tuesday we have a focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence, which will show what households believe about future economic progress, including 'labour availability' and 'business conditions'(Forex Factory, 2018). The forecast is highlighting a continuing progression, with expectation showing a 1 point rise in the index. This is important and should...

This has been an interesting week for Gold, actually slightly rebounding and holding above $1300. Which I am pretty surprised about, so lets have a look and what may have caused the movement we have seen this week. Monday's main focus was on the G20 Meeting, we saw the main sector of this was based on the lack of regulation for crypto-curriences, which is very good for that fast growing sector. Yet apart from this, information which could effect the Gold market were minimal. This meant on Monday we saw quite a lot of volatility however the precious metal did rise, gaining around $4 throughout the day to close at $1316. Tuesday was another fairly uneventful day, we saw the main focus once again on the G20 but we also had the UK's yearly CPI. But for this to have any substantial influence over the Gold market we would of needed a 0.3%-0.4% variation from the forecast. Yet this wasn't witnessed, and actual came in just below forecast at 2.7%. I don't believe this had a...

This week is opening with the G20 Summit, which is the priority for Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday we do have numerous US releases. This makes me believe we could indeed have a volatile week so lets jump in. Monday as stated above is completely dominated by the G20 Summit, potential policy ideas and legislation could create a highly volatile day. Apart from that on Monday, there isn't really anything worth mentioning. Tuesday, again has a main focus on the G20, but we do also have other events worth watching. The UK have their CPI y/y result, forecast it showing a small decline from last year, down to 2.8%. So it is worth keeping an eye on this result, and Tuesday could indeed be another very volatile day. Wednesday, in regards to movement for the Gold market, is looking like the busiest day of the week. We have four important events. To start it, we have the Federal Reserves Economic Projection report, then their FOMC Statement. Both of these are looking to create some str...

What has happened this week in the Gold market, actually not much, being pretty fucking boring to be honest. I am actually a little surprised by how little movement we have seen, Monday as expected was not busy but Tuesday had numerous releases which could of theoretically created turmoil. So lets give it a go and dissect why nothing is happening in the Gold market. Monday saw literally nothing happening in the open and close value for Gold, releases were few and far between, the only thing worth watching was the US Federal Budget Balance, and we needed big movement for anything drastic to happen in the market. But, there was no such drastic change, and thus we saw only a $2 change of Gold's value from open to close. Tuesday's big watch was the US's CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m results, but they were both bang on target. This didn't do much good to the US dollar, cooling of any of the continued growth we have seen in the last week or so. But the sacking of  the Secretar...

The week gone by has been fascinating, we genuinely saw no directional change from week open to week close. The precious metal opened at $1323 and closed on Friday at $1323, which is so mad, never seen such a weird position. The week was busy and highs of $1339 were seen before they came crumbling back as political tensions between the US and Korea declined. But this week is full of releases coming from the US so we could see some considerable movement for the precious metal. Monday is very quiet, to watch for, we have the US Federal Budget Balance, with forecast being strongly negative, so worth paying attention to this to see how this plays out. Then Tuesday we have a few sizeable releases from the US, with their CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m coming out. Forecast is showing a decline in both from last month however they are positive so if forecast is hit it will result in a decline in Gold I believe as confidence in the Dollar grows. Worth watching on Tuesday will be the: UK's Annua...

This week has seen a steady rise in the US Dollar after falling to deep lows in the 105 region against the Yen. For Gold this has created some turbulence as a result and is now sitting low in the $1315 region in Friday afternoon and evening. Monday saw a short upwards rally in the morning before declining steadily, falling around $8 as a result of strong positive movement in the US Dollar and also helped from the result from the US ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI coming in above forecast at 59.5(Forex Factory, 2018). However the precious metal regained some ground closing at $1321 by the end of Monday's trading. Tuesday was a fairly quiet day for results but we saw strong growth in Gold, rising quickly throughout the day. The Australian Cash Rate result was bang on forecast at 1.5%, not doing much for Gold, which is as expected. Their Retail Sales and Current Account were below forecast yet implications were once again small for the Gold market. Then late morning we witnessed a a qu...