THE NAIVE TRADER

As stated in the previous article, there are quite a few data releases this week(exciting I know), with all bar two coming from the US. Wednesday is showing a busy afternoon for the releases of US data. Firstly the ADP Non-Farm Employment change which is showing a very strong figure, of 191k, well above last month. I have decided to pick this out as it could lead to a further strong rally of the dollar on Wednesday, because there are other very positive data releases all in the afternoon. Next we have the Manufacturing PMI, this is showing a forecast the same as last month and its not the important so I am going to move over it, but I shall see pay attention when its released. Only 15 minutes after this, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is released which is showing growth but it is below last months result of 60.8 at 59.4. This isn't a huge change, and because its still above the base index value of 50 its showing growth, which is good for an economy and a currency. At the same time a...

I said I would update on Golds position on Friday evening in my last post and there was indeed some strong change. Gold closed on Friday at 1273 per ounce against the dollar, moving almost $10 in the space of the afternoon and evening. This was a very strong rally considering there was no data release causing such a movement. But I released today after further reading that the 'Catalan Independence Movement'  issue in Spain caused much uncertainly in the forex market thus pushing investors into the save haven which is always considered to be Gold. This movement meant the bear trend holding for the majority of the week was basically destroyed in a matter of hours. I was very naive to this as the Spanish economy is big but only the 14th biggest economy my GDP size so I didn't believe this political shift would lead to such a strong consistent rally in a fairly short period of time. Anyway, that concludes the position of Gold for the week, now to the week ahead: In the art...

This week, well it has been extremely strong for the Dollar, continuing to perform strongly in the Cable market. Pushing the pound lower and lower on Thursday and Friday after a nice rally during Wednesday. Tuesday's focus was just the Australian CPI q/q. Which came out below forecast at 0.6%. This didn't do huge damage because the forecast was already much higher than the previous quarter, the AUD/USD fell from 0.7830-0.7820 before continuing to decline down to a low this week of 0.76235 on Friday. Wednesday morning, the UK released their Prelim GDP for the quarter, with the result being above forecast by 0.1% at 0.4%(Forex Factory, 2017). The implications of this were small against the dollar but later in the day the pound did experience a very impressive but short rally in the cable market, hitting a high of just above 1.326 before plateauing and continuing on the bear trend which it has been experiencing for quite some time now. In the mid afternoon of Wednesday the ...

There was meant to be nothing exciting or of huge consequence hitting the gold market till Wednesday, yes Gold is now back on its bearish trend but Monday caused quite some stress. I was just living my life as always and then all of a sudden the Gold position got absolutely fucked, like booooooom. Before I could react Gold jumped from 1274 - 1281 against the dollar. I was so confused, like what had happened. Did Mr Trump declare war, did the US dollar just hit new highs for no reason. But I honestly don't know exactly why, as I spend more times reading the markets I will be able to obtain greater knowledge of why this shift took place. I originally thought it was the release of the CBI Industrial Order Expectations from the UK, as the result was -2 below the index and -11 away from the forecast. However this makes no sense, as it would lead to the pound dipping further against the dollar thus leading to the dollar gaining even greater value. This would lead to a dip in Gold valu...

No, once again nothing is really coming up till Wednesday(that I really care about). But this week I have decided to include the AUD as their CPI q/q comes out Wednesday and boy is there some movement. The forecast expecting a result of 0.8% compared to last quarter which recorded a result of 0.2%(Forex Factory, 2017). The last week has seen a fairly constant dip of the currently against the US dollar, currently sitting at 0.781 against the dollar. The data release offers some hope to this falling position, as a strong result either on target or above could help the AUD end the week in a strong position against other major currencies. However I believe the main issue is out of the hands of the AUD because the dollar has been hitting new heights against many other majors within in the market. Hitting a high of 114.085 against the JPY and 0.98770 against the Swiss Franc. This makes me believe that even with a strong result it may not cause a long-term trend against the dollar because th...

The week we have just witnessed has been very interesting. Many outcomes as always continued to surprise me, I have heard the chat about the continued rise in bitcoin, hitting unprecedented levels of over $6000 yesterday. But because of this it means many other interesting movements have taken place throughout the week in over hugely volatile markets such as Crude oil. On Wednesday US crude oil inventories were released, with actual being a million more decline than expected. With actual being -5.7m compared to the -4.7m that was expected. This as you would expect should  case a huge upshift in crude oil prices, but no, this decline was met with decline in price, falling from just over $52.2 a barrel down to $51.6m minutes later which is hugely confusing. Why does the decline in production lead to this, I really don't know, but if anyone were to have a greater understanding I would welcome it. Wednesday indeed was a busy day, with further data coming from the US and UK. Building...

Data releases on Wednesday and Thursday this week are offering interest in the direction of the US dollar as well as Crude Oil prices.  On Wednesday the US release the monthly Building Permits results, forecast is looking at 1.25m down from 1.27m the month before(Forex Factory, 2017). Long-term we are seeing an upward trend after the low in April of this year, but what shall be interesting is how badly the Hurricane's of last month such as Harvey and Maria will damage this, will it allow for more building permits than expected to allow for faster re-building of the damage that has been done. I don't have enough trading experience to understand or know the wide effect of this if forecast, I just know if met or exceeded it will lead to an up-shift of the US dollar against the Pound and Euro.   But later in the day Crude Oil Inventories are released, we have been seeing a constant decline in production, last month there was a -2.7m decline in production but forecast is es...