THE NAIVE TRADER

This project is delivered with a strong and fairly controversial leader in Justin Sun. In my opinion much of this progress is based on hype and community engagement. I feel this just because Mr Sun paid many millions just to have lunch with Warren Buffet and when he delayed this due to illness the currency's value dropped fairly heavily. I highlight this because a project with strong foundations shouldn't be so strongly negativity affected by a lunch meeting that was delayed due to illness. Yet there are positives, such as the Mainnet taking place on the 10th August this year which will continue to raise the price, but we have seen recently that coins gaining momentum in the run up to the main net have dumped just before as whales see the hype and not the actual project as something with intrinsic value. Currently, looking at TRXBTC its in a slight predicament like many altcoins, looking at the chart on the weekly I see S1 as a important level. If this is broken there is ba...

As I got some free time and think its a cool project I thought I would give my opinion on CZ's Binance coin and exchange. Binance as an exchange has taken the crypto currency world by storm in all honestly, since launching in 2017 its hit new heights and currently sits in the top ten exchanges for 24 hour volume. While seeing the number of coins and tokens exchangeable go from 5 to 75+ within the same time period. They have listed their own token, the Binance coin which offers the option to obtain a share as such of the company. I felt the need to highlight this coin as its something I am holding and looking to acquire more as time goes on. It has already risen 6 fold in value since January and while it has dipped as Bitcoin obtains further market dominance it hasn't fallen to pieces, and continued to release more Initial Coin Offering to keep volume and interest high in the exchange and coin. They also focus on the importance of coin burning throughout the first 2 years...

Thought I would look at the daily's for a couple majors I may look at entering in the next few weeks depending on market fluctuations etc. 1. USDJPY Looking at the daily chart for the pair is interesting, we see the movement up to a major potential Support Resistance flip soon with the rectangle grey area looking to be something of interest. If this area is reclaimed soon I do believe a shift up to the next resistance level being realistic, the position at 109.2. The rising volume reiterates the potential for a realistic S/R flip soon. 2. GBPUSD Thought I would look at this market as well on the daily candle, whats interesting is it seems to be facing a similar area as the USDJPY. It looks to be boarding the current resistance region of 1.27. This is of interest as if its reclaimed, hitting the 1.275 area isn't unrealistic with a move to 1.287 potential for the incoming month. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. TradingView, 2019. @ Und3rachiv3r

I thought I would play around with the Fib retracement approach with some of my next entries, using these levels to support potential areas of support and resistance. 1. TFUEL - This coin I have decided to try and pick up, using the retracement area we see support looking to be broken and the levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3) aren't unrealistic.  Furthermore to this perspective, when looking at this particular coin the volume level is insane, we are seeing a point where volume is sitting at a level of half of the market cap of the whole coin. Volume at  $26,515,488 and a market cap o f  $57,094,636 (Coinmarketcap, 2019). I think this should play out and could be another decent gainer in the next few days. 2. FET - This coin is looking to go parabolic, we are seeing a project with a 24 hour volume of over 4.5x the marketcap level. Something completely crazy is taking place with these new Initial Exchange Offerings. This is shifting but there is still huge room ...

Been away for a while, but exams and stuff done so thought I would update on my current crypto ideas and what I am holding and why. First we have Zilliqa, which I trade against Bitcoin, this has been something I have entered due to its bottoming out and creating new all time lows which offer price levels never explored before. We see on the 4 hourly chart the coin has been rejected at 287 resistance and rebounded towards the current support levels of around 245, which we're currently sitting at. I see the huge volume spike and serious lack of response in terms of price highlights potential movement soon.  Looking at the triangle idea, something I've never been over convinced by, we see a serious point here. Potentially a breakout of the triangle upwards could result in a heavy pump and break through the 287 level towards the 366 region. Serious gains potentially. LINK This is the next coin I have picked up, holding and seeing substantial gains, currently looki...

All my own opinions and probability will be wrong, but thought I would have a little look at the Eth/USD market. I see potential gains here, volume gaining positive momentum after the sell off and now with resistance found I feel this area could now be a little slower as more buy positions will have to be met to gain further. Also the rebounding RSI only further illustrates this idea and I think there is a buy zone, maybe even before the next resistance level. Peace. TradingView, 2019

So back again, looking at the ethereum market against the dollar. I believe there is a short position which is looking juicy. This looks realistic because of numerous reasons. Number 1 - the gains have been substantial, breaking through the 147 range easily and gaining momentum and we see the first signs of a slight cool off within this bullish progress. Number 2 - RSI indicating a a return from the overbought position, bouncing and returning from the 96 area to a downward potential movement. Number 3 - The volume is declining and looking negative, highlighting people may be taking profit here and selling off as the market looks for a resistance zone which hasn't been found for some time. Number 4 - The market is hitting the top of the Bollinger Bands on the 4 hourly position illustrates the potential for a cool off as highlighted in the other indicators and market sentiment. I am looking for an entry in this range, opening at 160-163 and shorting to hopefully either...

Looking at the market on a 4 hourly time frame there is potential for the current resistance to be broken. The green of the Ichimoku cloud illustrates the bullishness of the market on this time frame. Furthermore, when using the stoch RSI its clear the market is returning from the oversold position. These indicators offer support for a potential for a long entry if the 110.637 position is broken soon, which could be likely as the market hovers around the resistance more sell positions are bought up and thus can allow with sufficient volume for a potential clean break to a position we haven't seen broken this year, around and above the 111.109 price. TradingView, 2019.

On the 21st I was looking at holding a short position and believed the dip would continue, what is interesting is that after a slight gain we have seen the drawback and the 109.835 resistance position is looking more powerful than I first believed. We see the currency pair is fluctuating and holding quite happily in the mid-range of the 108.670 - 109.835 resistant area's. This is interesting as the RSI and the BB don't hint at much dipping or diving at the moment. Volume has fallen a little recently and although buying is continue I don't know if there is sufficient volume to help the pair gain momentum to break the higher resistance till at least next week.  Peace. TradingView, 2019.

Bitcoin is something I have stated before having an interest in and that of course continues, but trying to understand trading it is tough. The market is so volatile and thus there is huge opportunity but of course huge risk. I feel I stand more of an investor for this market, my trading skills no where near up to scratch to play this game! But anyway, I thought I would have a look at what is going on, not saying I will enter but just looking at where short term the BTC/USD market is moving towards. I am loving the horizontals atm, as they are just so useful when comprehending where potential resistance regions are within the market. The sentiment online is continuing to be quite bearish with a number of people highlighting the lack of breakouts to either fall below the 3k or above the 5k in the recent weeks. This I believe shows that the market is quite flat and thus maybe big cheeses are beginning to accumulate as the market continues to hold within in the 3550-3650 region. I...

So, thought I would have a little gander at the Pound. Comparing this to the USD for entry on a weekly basis does looking precarious but interesting, my knowledge of the Ichimoku cloud is weak but I believe that trading within it is fearless due to the volatility. Thus creating a slightly fast passed potential movement. I reckon the resistance we are looking at for the upper is 1.30 for the next week or so. Yet I don't know if this is the direction we will be seeing, the RSI is highlighting the market is returning from an overbought position, and looking to continue downwards. This potential sell off is further illustrated by the increasing sell volume within the market. Therefore I reckon next potential bounce point/resistance area is the 1.26789 point because of previous resistance areas that can be seen over the last few months. I wouldn't bother entering here personally because of the potential flip and lack of real opportunity but high risk. I will be looking to wait ...

Back and a new year and once again I have been slacking for the last month due to exams and laziness of course. But back on and hopefully this time I can keep some consistency. Over the Christmas period we have seen exciting excessive movement in the US forex market, with a heavy dip falling substantially from the upward trend we have been seeing for the majority of 2018. Looking at the dip its something which does look quite surprising and I reckon the inability for Trump to get his way leading to the longest lockdown in US history taking place has for sure affected confidence in the US dollar. The fall did test the yearly low for a minute, the 104 region, pretty damn impressive but did retract almost straight away. This position does look of interest, I have drawn in where I reckon the next resistance level is, the top end of 109. I believe this looks realistic as shown by the 3 arrows highlighting what I reckon are resistance levels which have been hit over the last 8 mont...

In my last post I discussed the potential for the market to retrace towards the 113 level and it does seem s though this direction is continuing, and therefore I am going to discuss what further decline I believe might be seen in the next few weeks.  The other day I can't lie things weren't looking good as the market continued upwards and hit the next resistance barrier of the upper ends of 113. But the retrace did happen and if you were to have entered and stuck it out well I guess you got some dolla from it if you now closed your position. What is interesting now is how far it will fall, the 113.008 was were I would of taken most of my profit to be honest if I entered and to my surprise we have fallen further with no holding position at the bottom of 113. After breaking the resistance the market is now faulting on the border og my long-term trend line I put in. This doesn't necessarily mean anything(as I could of drawn it wrong) but I believe it highlights the potent...

University has been taking up more time that I keep expecting which is creating constant frustrations for me in order to find time to look at market movement. But now I have a lil bit of freeedon so gotta have a look at the markets! The USD/JPY market is looking juicy, an opening of a short position could be a motive and this is why I believe so. We have as expected seen the growth expected after the bottoming out in the stoch RSI in early October with the market bouncing off the high 111 resistance zone. But now we have reached the top of the stoch RSI where we have seen a drawback in previous months at the 99/100 region emphasising the uncertainty for further gains without any dip. I am looking at not much further gains for the next week or so at least, a short is looking enticing, with the dip to the bottom of 113 looking likely which is where I reckon the next resistance zone is going to be. Yet depending on how much the dip effects investor confidence we may see further draw...

Since my last post the USD/JPY has seen drastic change which is fascinating as ever. I didn't think we would see a drawback till the mid 114 level I must admit even though the stoch RSI was heavy on the overbought level but anyway, live and learn! So now we are again in a precarious position, looking just at technical, we have been seeing the currency pair in a solid upward trend testing the upper levels of but rebounding off the upper and lower channels through the last few months. Now once again the lower trend line looks to be tested, the reason why I think it could be tested is because the lower bounds of the Bollinger Bands haven't been touched and the market still looks in a downward progress. Yet countering this we are reaching the point in the RSI where its the bottom of the oversold section, so a rebound is expected. The opposite was seen when we hit the top in terms of what was seen in recent times over the last few months and that I why I don't think we wil...

We saw the currency pair break through the resistance fairly easily, with much less drawback than I originally expected. Buy volume still seems very solid with confidence in the Dollar clearly holding well, which is surprising as I thought markets would react to this RSI position with a drawback at least for a short while, maybe even holding a horizontal position for this week or so. However clearly not, RSI is still cooking, almost hitting the 100 mark on the indicator, showing that the market is looking strongly overbought for the current period. What is interesting though, is that even with the currency pair being strongly overbought just looking at resistance levels, I don't expect much dip until we reach the mid 114 level. This would be impressive, highlighting just how strong the US dollar is right now, as investor confidence has clearly grown over the last few months. I believe that it will hold at the level before much further gains. this bullish rally needs some tim...

This looks like we have interesting position for the USD/JPY market. Since mid March's low this market has seen strong gains without facing substantial drawbacks down below the 110 region. What is interesting now is that this bullish momentum is once again coming to a crossroads. We can see where before this position was rejected, around the 113.155 level in July. But now we are back with strong green candles holding for the last week or so highlighting the potential for further gains to be made during this extra bullish month. However there is reason to believe this progression might be coming to a halt based just on techincal analysis. Below you can see a chart with the Stoch RSI included. I believe this of interesting because it is sitting well within the upper bands and has gone above the 97 mark where we last saw a drawback during this bull run. I also must add that the Bollinger Bands upper band as well are constantly being touched throughout which offers the opi...

Thought I would do a fairly quick update on my current opinion on the market, just focusing on the USD/JPY market for the time being. I drew a couple of horizontals a while ago, looking at where I believed the market would find resistance and potentially bounce and if not, where it would continue down to. I felt short-term, looking at the 3hourly chart the 110.755 was going to offer better resistance considering at the touch point the RSI was oversold. But it looks like the pull back was further than expected, we can see from the RSI that ts is oversold, currently sitting at 27, but because of this not being hugely out the range and the fact the next resistance is looking at the 110.101 I do believe we might see further falling. Yet a contrasting point is that the Bollinger Bands show the candle falling below the lower band and of course this typically results in some kind of rebound depending on the magnitude of volume change over the next period. I wouldn't be looking ...

BTC has been fluttering around this $6500 range which has become increasingly frustrating to be honest. There have been a few issues causing this, such as the ETF bullshit, causing insane levels of volatility. For example today we saw a candle with $7000 hit before quickly falling back to the $6500 region. Just from reading others opinions online people still seem bearish with potential movement down below $6000 seeming realistic from numerous respectable sources in my opinion. Thus my entries into alt's are being held off for the moment even though I really should do my own research. Anyway, this is where we look like a breakout might happen, lol jk who really knows. As stated above this stupid fucking $6000-$6500 range has creating chaos, with leverage traders on Bitmex getting wrecked on their x100 levels lol. But this is not the point of why I am writing this, I want to explain some of my interests and why I have the audacity to talk about it. Currently I am watching two...

Eventually, I am back, been away for just under a month so haven't really had the time to produce any updates on the markets I have been watching. I thought I would do a quick update on my opinion on the USD/JPY market and where I believe the direction could be. At the moment it seems for August we have seen some consolidation within the market, holding within what seems to be a tight boundary in the 110 region. As of now looking at the Bollinger Band positioning it looks as though we might bounce off the resistance level around the 110.272, but as always this is just a guesstimate based on where resistance seems to have been holding for the last few weeks. But further to this point, the BB does show the candles touching the bottom of the BB area with a negative candle still in play, thus making it look as though we will have at least another downward movement ( probably small) before any further upward gains. The RSI shows neither top or bottom regions touched and thus a d...